2012-02-25 00:51:29Heartland's president argues 'mainstream climate scientists are gradually leaving the flock'
John Cook


Another example of the "consensus is crumbling" meme, argued by Bast and I predict a meme the deniers will use more over time. Unless we crush the myth with TCP. Note what von Storch says - his research finds a strengthening consensus. I found a graph buried in one of Bray & von Storch's papers showing the consensus growing over time, which somehow has escaped everyone's attention. This article, by E&E of all places, is the first I've seen mentioned of that result. We will feature an updated version of that graph in the TCP paper.


Bast bases a portion of his argument against climate change on the notion that mainstream climate scientists are gradually leaving the flock who believe humans are causing a disturbing effect.

He points to several surveys of climate scientists conducted by two German researchers with the Institute of Coastal Research, Hans von Storch and Dennis Bray. The Germans, climate scientists themselves, surveyed more than 2,000 colleagues around the world on the strength of their confidence about whether temperatures are rising, if humans are contributing to it, and more.

The surveys ask the scientists to rate their confidence on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 being "strongly disagree" and seven being "strongly agree." In Bast's view, the results show that about one-third of scientists are strong believers in man-made climate change. The same amount is in the middle, and the last third are unconvinced, in Bast's interpretation.

"I look at that and I say, 'OK, about a third of climate scientists agree with the alarmist position,'" Bast said. "But that's it. It's only a third. There's extensive disagreement on the basic scientific processes and data that's at the heart of this."

But the authors of the peer-reviewed survey disagree.

"No, this survey we did is not supporting that view," said von Storch, who directs the Institute of Coastal Research.

Scientists' confidence has been on the rise since the first survey was conducted in 1996, he said. At that point, 60 percent of scientists thought the world was warming and 40 percent believed it was because of human emissions.

The last survey, conducted in 2008, shows that 90 percent of scientists see evidence of rising temperatures, while 80 percent say climate change is man-made, said von Storch.

2012-02-25 04:25:34
Dana Nuccitelli

E&E publishing is different from E&E the "science" journal, John :-)

2012-02-27 10:44:20
John Cook


So is this a good E&E, not an evil E&E?

2012-02-27 13:07:31


So is this a good E&E, not an evil E&E?




But I prefer M&M's.  :-)