2012-01-30 11:32:38Real Climate on the IPCC consensus position
John Cook


This is an interesting post by Gavin on RC, worth a read - a discussion of the consensus position of human attribution and uncertainty:


I like Gavin's two different visual depictions of "most of global warming is very likely caused by humans": 

Figure 1: Two schematic distributions of possible ‘anthropogenic GHG contributions’ to the warming over the last 50 years. Note that in each case, despite a difference in the mean and variance, the probability of being below 50, is exactly 0.1 (i.e. a 10% likelihood).

2012-01-31 03:22:48
Dana Nuccitelli

Yeah very interesting post.  Also, Curry is a dolt.

I certainly agree with this definition of the consensus 'most warming is anthropogenic', the only issue is detecting that consensus in the peer-reviewed literature.

2012-01-31 10:25:29Great quote from Mike Mann's book
John Cook


Have been furiously reading Mike Mann's "Hockey Stick Wars" book on the train to and from work (2 hours of commuting each day, good chance to catch up on reading) and there was an intriguing quote there:

"Far better an approximate answer to the right question which is often vague than an exact answer to the wrong question"

I think it has application here - but I've been distracted by the email crowd sourcing over the last week and need to return to the question of methodology shortly.