2011-08-17 04:48:24Republican House Majority at Risk
Dana Nuccitelli

A little good news on the political front for once.  Gallop has the generic Dem congressman beating the generic Republican by 7 points.  Nate Silver has his usual interesting analysis of what this means.  In short, it signals the possibility that Democrats could re-take control of Congress in 2012.  Americans may finally be realizing what happens when you give tea party extremists even a little control over government.  We can only hope.

Silver also estimates a 10-20% chance that we could have a double-switch, with a Dem Congress and Republican President.  It's hard to see how any of the current crop of Repub candidates could win the presidential election, but Obama hasn't exactly inspired confidence either.

2011-08-17 07:21:05
Rob Honeycutt


What I've also read from Nate Silver (and I think I've said this here before) that the worst case scenario for the Republicans is an Obama win in 2012 in a down economy.  That would serve to even further exasterbate the losses the Republicans might see in Congress.

2011-08-17 09:36:03


Well, I hope you guys are prepared to kick in a few bucks towards campaign expenses. The GOP is not going to go down without a fight, and they have the Koch brothers + "Citizens United" behind them. It's become apparent that it will take a robust majority in the House and a robust super-majority in the Senate, as well as Obama, to get ANYTHING done; and then we're going to have to throw this bi-partisan stuff right down the garbage disposal. At best, we will have already wasted 4 years while Obama has negotiated with himself halfway over to the GOP positions; and the GOP have dragged him 48% further.

No more Mr. Nice Guy.