2011-07-05 12:19:12Climate models predict greater Ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica than previously thought
Rob Painting

Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica - Yin 2011

"Model projections suggest that over the course of the twenty-first century, the maximum ocean warming around Greenland will be almost double the global mean, with a magnitude of 1.7–2.0 °C. By contrast, ocean warming around Antarctica will be only about half as large as global mean warming, with a magnitude of 0.5–0.6 °C. A more detailed evaluation indicates that ocean warming is controlled by different mechanisms around Greenland and Antarctica. We conclude that projected subsurface ocean warming could drive significant increases in ice-mass loss, and heighten the risk of future large sea-level rise."

2011-07-05 13:25:44
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey

The warming is already occurring.  Per MUNCHOW et al 2011 (draft): "Ocean Warming of Nares Strait Bottom Waters off NW Greenland 2003-09", which analyzes subsurface flows within the Nares Strait. The evidence collected therein shows that warming Atlantic subsurface waters entering the Lincoln Sea have pushed over the 300 meter deep sill at the northern entrance to the Nares Strait and made their way south, warming the subsurface waters there and also impacting the Petermann Glacier, the polynas and the ice arches.

So the increased warming of the subsurface waters may help drive bottom melt by thinning the mixing layer underneath the ice (in the Lincoln Sea), but also contribute to the development of ice arches in the Nares.