2011-06-22 06:52:24Another Ljungqvist Hockey Stick
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey

Ljungqvist 2011

[Source paper here]

2011-06-22 07:15:42
Dana Nuccitelli

That's quite the LIA he's got there (Christiansen too).  I guess I may have to update the 'Ljungqvist broke the hockey stick' rebuttal.

2011-06-22 07:57:08


It won't be the temperature reconstruction of choice by the deniers, already in the mid 20th century the temperature is higher than at the begining of 11th century.
Though, the temperature difference between the Maunder minimum and the maximum in the second half of the 18th century would be larger, about 0.6-0.7 °C, and 1.5 °C with respect to last century. Overall, a higher sensitivity to the variability of the sun.

2011-06-22 08:09:35
Julian Brimelow

Thanks Daniel.

Well, well...looks like Mann et al. may have been running too warm in the past.  I'm sure that McI is now going to undertake a thorough audit of Christiansen (2011) and Ljungqvist (2010, 2011).  Not bloody likely!

Oh, and the greater amplitude of the temperature variation in Christiansen (2011) and Ljungqvist (2011) points towards a higher climate sensitivity too.  McI et al. won't be pleased :)

I really wish that they would splice on the instrumented temperature record when they do this.

2011-06-22 10:55:05Comment
Robert Way


Mann et al. have more problems than just that if you ask me. I'm not sure what my thoughts are on Ljungqvist's new work. It is an attempt to preserve low-frequency changes. I think one of the things that people ignore is that it isn't a Northern Hemisphere reconstruction. It excludes the tropical Northern Hemisphere. Tropics are more stable. See figure below (Thompson et al. 2003). Likely would lead to his curve being less exaggerated earlier on. I really don't know the purpose of comparing his graph to others when he excludes the tropics..

I'm still a big fan of moberg personally.

Update (Added 6 ice core tropical glacier reconstruction showing little variability until recently)