2011-06-08 07:50:14Oh the stupid it hurts! Spencer at it again.
Julian Brimelow

Read this unbelievably stupid post by Roy Spencer– delicious fodder for the deniers.


He shamelessly cherry picks and uses inappropriate curve fitting all in one post to convince himself that:

"For now, though, I think the tropospheric (AMSU ch. 5) data are pretty clear: there are no signs of warming in the last nine years in those regions where the strongest warming in the last 30 to 40 years has occurred, that is, in the Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes"

Aaaahhh!!  Meanwhile his very own data are showing this:

2011-06-08 07:57:22


I personally don't care what he says.  I'm not sure much of anyone listens.

It will bite him, though.  His own site shows that temps right now are approaching 2010 levels this time last year (and that was during an El Nino).  If this continues, and I think it likely, the next seven months may well be the warmest on record for each, and that will not be during an El Nino.  The whole "it's not warming any more" canard is going to come to a shreiking halt.

2011-06-08 08:14:57
Dana Nuccitelli

WTF?  He chooses a 30° latitude band (one-sixth of the Earth's surface) over 9 years to examine?  Cherrypick city!

btw Sphaerica - you have to be a bit careful when talking about El Nino/La Nina, because there's about a 6 month lag before ENSO changes are reflected in the satellite temp record.  But as I recall, 6 months ago we were still in the La Nina phase.

2011-06-08 08:38:01
Julian Brimelow


I don't know, many people do listen to Spencer and he is attending thew Heartland fest.  Either way, I find this kind of data tinkering/manipulation indefensible, especially from someone who frequently derides others and essentially is of the opinion "I am the only one who gets it, and everyone else is stupid".

Regarding ENSO and global SATs, I was musing the other week and by my very rough estimate that after 2015 or in the 2020s there may be years with strong La Ninas that are warmer than 1998 was......

Yes, peak correlation between ENSO and global SATs is 5-7 months IIRC.  2011, depsite one of the strongest La Nina's in many years, is going to be warmer than El Nino years a few decades ago.  For example:

Global SAT (GISTEMP wrt 1951-1980 baseline):

2008 +0.44 (moderate La Nina)

2011 +0.50 to +0.55 (?) (strong La Nina)

1988 +0.31 (moderate El Nino)

1983 +0.25 (strong El Nino)

1973 +0.14 (strong El Nino)

2012 will liekly be the warmest yera on record by a long a shot, but that largely depends on what the tropical volcanoes do and operating under the assuption that ENSO doesn't drift into a La Nina mode again this fall/winter.  It will be interesting to see what happens with ENSO in the coming months....