2011-05-30 23:34:17Predicting ENSO using previous years Indian Ocean Dipole index
Rob Painting

Anyone read this? Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño - Izumo 2010

If this is right, a biggie El Nino seems on the cards around Xmas time. Here's the DMI (Indian Ocean Dipole) for the relevant 14 month timeframe

2011-05-31 07:54:21


Didn't read the paper. Here's the correct link to the paper.

2011-05-31 07:59:36Link isn't working for some reason
Alex C


Maybe this one will.

Interesting study and conclusions, this would have big implications for 2012 temps as they tend to lag behind ENSO a couple months (if I'm not mistaken).

Edit: Aha, beat me to it, with the full paper too.

2011-05-31 09:05:07
Julian Brimelow

Well, FWIW, the NASA's GMAO is predicting a pretty strong of an E lNino later this year.




2011-05-31 16:07:55
Rob Painting

With equatorial Atlantic SST's some 1 -1.5°C above normal at the moment, and possibly a strong El Nino on the way we could be in for another exceptional drought in the Amazon. Early days of course.

I wonder how Australia is going to fare? El Nino often means drought for them too, and the DMI (Indian ocean Dipole) is in a postive phase now and growing, and that causes drying there too. With all the new plant growth from the very wet last 6 months likely to die, that's going to provide a lot of fuel for bushfires.  Just speculating..........