|2011-05-03 22:49:53||Arctic conference in Copenhagen May 3de to 6th 2011|
There is an ongoing conference in Copenhagen on the Arctic.
I expect there will be some interesting papers published here.
Read the abstracts (pdf) for more information.
From a press release (in swedish) yesterday (I copy/pasted the press release from google translate as google translate refused to make a link):
New research report shows the wider impact of climate change in the Arctic than expected
Adding some quotes from the abstracts as I read:
p. 16: Overall, we generally accept the temperature forecasts of these models as they and recent data show an Arctic wide temperature increase consistent with global warming rather than regional warming patterns, which would have been caused by natural variability.
p. 18: Epidemiological studies in several Arctic communities have shown much higher concentrations of pollutants in blood, hair, and umbilical cord blood and human milk compared to societies at lower altitude. These concentrations often exceed the regulatory standards used by international and national authorities.
p. 18: Sea ice is one of the most visible and rapidly changing aspects of the Arctic. Recent signifi cant changes in the physical state of sea ice include: (1) rapid decline in summer minimum extent, (2) loss of multiyear sea ice and (3) thinning of the ice cover. The rate of decline of sea ice has been faster than IPCC AR4 forecast and indicates the likelihood of summer ice-free conditions by mid-century, much earlier than expected just a few years ago.
p. 20: Arctic coastal seas underlain by subsea permafrost host an extremely large carbon pool: the Arctic continental shelf could contain around 1300 Gt of carbon, of which 800 Gt is CH4, some of which could be available for sudden release under the appropriate conditions. A release of only 1% of this reservoir would more than triple the atmospheric mixing ratio of CH4, potentially triggering abrupt climate change.
p. 23: Projections of increased mass loss from the Arctic mountain glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet are uncertain and can be summarized to be 1.0±0.5 m by the year AD
p. 27: Our results, along with those from a subset of atmospheric inversion models, suggest
p. 29: The results reveal drastic, systematic spatial changes in atmospheric circulation, characterized by the accelerated north-eastward shifts of the centers of action and finally formed Arctic Rapid change Pattern
p. 40: Greenland’s main outlet glaciers have more than doubled their contribution to global sea level rise over the last decade. Recent work has shown that Greenland’s mass loss is still increasing.
p. 70: Even in the absence of contributions from atmospheric deposition, the most remote lake ecosystems of the northern hemisphere have already deviated markedly from Late Holocene baseline conditions, and entered new states that are entirely consistent with the notion of Anthropocene.
p. 71: Our results stress that the derived ecological eff ects of climate change are dramatic even on a decadal scale, and, hence, take place at a high pace. The observed changes are likely to aff ect community functioning, and thus likely to aff ect adjacent trophic levels, ultimately aff ecting ecosystem functioning.
Funny. Watts find an article regarding some of the reports from the program, which says the sea level will rise faster than expected towards 2100. Watts checks the satelittes and conclude, nope, that can't be right.
What a complete a idiot!
Here is the article in the danish newspaper Politiken which the article AW uses for reference quotes, via Google translate.
Typical Watts idiocy. Only look at 15 years, ignore the clear acceleration over the past century, and ignore the physical basis for future sea level rise projections. In other words, apply the principles of global warming denial to sea level rise denial.