2011-04-08 16:49:07New warning on Arctic ice melt. Is Richard Black Wrong?

The researchers are now working with a new computer model for Arctic ice. Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer ice will probably be gone within this decade.
I notice Rob has previously mentioned Dr. David Barber who quoted between 2013 and  2030 during a lecture.  Not really the same thing.  I recall others have quoted at the North Pole rather than the entire Arctic.
2011-04-08 16:56:05Blackie's smoking 'em while he gots 'em
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey

Maslowski, 2016 ± 3 years.

But that was summer minimum.

2011-04-08 16:58:37


Thanks Daniel, I just found it at the same time as you posted.

Still 2016+/- 3 years is not quite the same as 'by 2013' and it is still unclear what he means

Here is an interview.  where he doesn't deny the 2013, however perhaps it gets distorted due to the language barrier.

2011-04-08 17:07:33
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey

Maslowski made his projection several years ago; in light of recent developments in the Arctic, he may have been too conservative.

I make it 1 chance in 3 the pole loses it's cover at some point this year, 2 chances in 3 by next summer.  If we get a strong Arctic DiPole either summer, it's a lock.

2011-04-08 17:15:54
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey

More Maslowski:

See Page 6 of this one

And Page 2 of this one

21 Mb download Eddy Modeling Study

2011-04-09 01:43:55



Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.

Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.

"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. "So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."


Professor Peter Wadhams, Cambridge University, UK: -

"Wieslaw's model is more efficient because it works with data and it takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice."

"The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse.

"There will be even more opening up, even more absorption and even more melting.

"In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040."







2011-04-09 12:58:44Ice-free Arctic
James Wight


For months I’ve been planning a post on this topic but I’m not sure if it’s suitable for SkS. Extrapolating from volume data (which I had to guesstimate from PIOMAS graphs), Arctic summer sea ice will be gone in less than twenty years – five if you use a quadratic which is a better fit. A repeat of 2007 could wipe out all the ice in one summer.

2011-04-09 19:31:56
Mark Richardson

Doesn't seem too bad from the BBC, he uses the word 'could', which seems pretty accurate.


I spoke to some Arctic hydrologist and ice people and they seem pretty confident that just applying a fit isn't really that useful and will very likely be inaccurate. They're thinking more on decadal timescales: weather patterns have really helped with the Arctic ice loss (e.g. winds pushing ice through the Denmark straits) and unless that's self reinforcing it might swing back the other way like it has in the past and preserve the ice a bit longer.


Given another 2007 though, who knows what'll happen? Could collapse within the decade.



We're going to get ice free summers anyway, might be good if we get them when people still have time to do something!

2011-04-14 10:23:04


Somewhat related - march anomalies map from GISS available.

See some red areas in the Arctic?

Doesn't look good at all.