2011-02-11 15:01:12Maue at FSU: Cyclone activity is at 33-year lows ~ (also Wang et al. 2010) ?
Peter Miesler

 All the usual suspects {Pielke, WUWT, climateaudit, WCL, icecap and more} have stories on the following study, but I'm not finding anything from a more trustworthy source.  Any suggestions



Wang, Yang, Ding, Murakami, and Huang

Climate control of the global tropical storm days (1965–2008)


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"The tropical storm days have a consistent global record over the past 44 years (1965–2008), which provides an alternative metric for integrated information about genesis, track, and lifespan. Seasonal-reliant singular value decomposition is performed on the fields of the global storm days and sea surface temperature by using the “best track” data.

The leading mode, which dominates the variability of the global total number of storm days, displays an east-west contrast between enhanced activity in the North Pacific and reduced activity in the North Atlantic and a north-south contrast in the Southern Hemisphere oceans between active tropics and inactive subtropics, which are coupled with the El Niño and a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

The second mode reveals a compensating trend pattern coupled with global warming: upward trends over the North Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific warm pool (17.5°S–10°N, 70–140°E) and downward trends over the Pacific, especially the South Pacific. However, the global total number of storm days shows no trend and only an unexpected large amplitude fluctuation driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation and PDO. The rising temperature of about 0.5°C in the tropics so far has not yet affected the global tropical storm days."

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2011-02-11 15:14:09Dr. Ryan N. Maue's Florida State University website ?
Peter Miesler


Oh and than there is Dr. Ryan N. Maue's Florida State University site ~ Any opinions?

Global Tropical Cyclone Activity
Dr. Ryan N. Maue
Global Tropical Cyclone ACE does not show an upward trend in communion with global temperatures.
Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency and ACE remain near the lowest levels since 1977.

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"Overall, since 1979:
**Global Tropical Cyclone ACE shows no upward trend.
**Northern Hemisphere TC ACE shows no upward trend.
**Southern Hemisphere TC ACE shows no upward trend.
**North Atlantic TC ACE has doubled since 1995, exactly compensated by a halving of Eastern Pacific ACE. It appears that in the context of global and NH ACE, the NATL increases are at the expense of the other basins, or simply within the common climate framework.
**Global TCs of Tropical Storm force show no upward trend in frequency.
**Global TCs of Hurricane Force + show no upward trend in frequency.

"**66-tropical cyclones globally, the fewest in the reliable record (since at least 1970)**46-tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, fewest since 1977**Global calendar year of 529 was the lowest since 1977.**The Northern Hemisphere ACE total of 373 was the lowest since 1977.**Combined North Eastern and Western Pacific ACE total of 171 lowest since at least 1970.**Western North Pacific had 8 Typhoons fewest in at least
fewest since at least 1970. **North Atlantic for 2010 was 170, the 11th most since 1950, and most since 2005."

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2011-02-11 15:33:28Maue
Dana Nuccitelli

Maue's ACE data has always been inconsistent with NOAA's:


I've never gotten a good explanation as to why.  I think he's written a paper about it, but I haven't read it.  Maue is a "skeptic" who frequents WUWT, so suffice it to say I trust NOAA above him to get the ACE data right.

2011-02-12 05:08:18Global Tropical Cyclone activity is at 33-year lows
Peter Miesler

But you are showing me Atlantic basin records when Maue is crowing about Northern Hemisphere ACE.

I've kept at trying to dig up more information but the web is flooded with denier sites going on and on about this - and I'm finding nothing highlighting flaws in Maue assessment or conclusions (well ok SkS has an interesting write up, though inadequate in the face of what is being published by denialists.). 

{OT ~ How is it they have come to dominate the web so well - hell type in Greenman3610 and if you're not careful the first site you wind up at is WUWT... and I keep wondering what the hell is up with that.}

Admittedly, my above title makes the same mistake of label shifts (from NH to global) but hey that is how the denier echo-chamber works.

Sure, I have found some very informative stuff about hurricanes - But, still nothing that directly addresses Maue's claims.