2011-01-21 03:02:112010 Sea Level: Largest Drop Ever Recorded?
John Hartz
John Hartz

The following was posted today (Jan 20) on the comment thread of an article that I am blogging on.


Based on the most current data it appears that 2010 is going to show the largest drop in global sea level ever recorded in the modern era.  Since many followers of global warming believe that the rate of sea level rise is increasing, a significant drop in the global sea level highlights serious flaws in the IPCC projections.  The oceans are truly the best indicator of climate.  The oceans drive the world’s weather patterns.  A drop in the ocean levels in a year that is being cited as proof that the global warming has arrived shows that there is still much to learned.  If the ocean levels dropped in 2010, then there is something very wrong with the IPCC projections.


2011-01-21 04:38:18

Absurd. Even more absurd is the conclusion he drews, that global warming is not happening.
2011-01-21 05:41:39Rebuttal Needed
John Hartz
John Hartz

Ricardo et al,

This "finding" is spreading like wildfire throughout the blogosphere. The calculations and conclusions posted on the "inconvenientskeptic" website need to be throughly critiqued and rebutted.  

2011-01-21 05:58:36OMG
Julian Brimelow


My these guys are desperate, and do they ever make me mad.  Several points.  This is the graph that he should be showing (the one which unlike his actually has the seasonal signal removed, and the inverse barometer correction applied):



 Or this one from CSIRO:


Another point, the data are currently only available until September 2010, so the full data for the year are not even in yet, we are still missing the last quarter.  Another, one does not compare intra-seasonal changes, one looks at the long-term trend.  And of course the La Nina is going to play a role in this, but one to pull that out has to focus on the noise in the system.

He really, really needs to be called on this! It is wrong to do so, bu the annual mean global sea-level in 2010 will be higher than that recorded in 2009, of that I am very confident.



2011-01-21 06:23:20Albatross
John Hartz
John Hartz

Thanks for the two graphs. I'll post them on the comment bloig.

Unfortunately, to succed in their public relations effort, the Anti-AGW folk only have to create the illusion of sceientific controversy and sow seeds of doubt. Unlike legitmate scientists, they deal in smoke and mirrors.  

2011-01-21 07:56:10
Paul D


Inconvenient Skeptic has posted comments on Skeptic Science in the past.

Actually his blog was one of the few sites that came up after searching for info about radiation and conduction.

I mentioned in the the Pierrehumbert thread that I mainly found skeptic sites.


I notice Glenn has been posting some very good rebuttals there.

2011-01-21 08:10:56
Paul D

Not at all of much use (because it is one tidal gauge), but Portsmouth has a tidal gauge and I have been plotting the data for the last two years. The new yearly updates are due soon. It's been there for 19 years and although there are dips, the trend is up over that 19 year period, including the last 3 years.

The UK data is free to use, anyone can sign up and download for free.
There are some licensing rules but they are minimal.
2011-01-21 11:54:30
Glenn Tamblyn



I have posted some stuff over at TIS in the past. I have tended to confine myself to John Kehrs (TIS) posts on his theories. You could spend your entire life responding to every post on every small topic by a sceptic. Some of my conversations with him were the basis for the post I am working on looking at TFK 09

Albatrosses comments above are probably the mosy concise rebuttal. However, you can only post text & links over at TIC. Good Luck - John is stubborn. That said, his is a fairly new site & I don't how much traffic he gets. Certainly not a large pool of posters.

2011-01-22 03:30:27TFK 09
John Hartz
John Hartz


Thanks for the feedback. What is TFK09?

2011-01-22 03:35:15Some basic question
John Hartz
John Hartz

Doesn't GMSLR mask the fact that sea level rise is not uniform throughout the world's oceans and shorelines?

As I understand it, most of the SLR occurs around the Equator due to centrifigul forces. Is this correct?

Where can I find a good overview of SLR? 

2011-01-22 07:15:26
Rob Painting

Badger - try this: http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/

Run by Neil White (one of the world authorities on sea level) and has a good run down on the ins and outs of SLR.