2010-09-12 16:02:36New research articles
Ari Jokimäki


Warming of Global Abyssal and Deep Southern Ocean Waters Between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to Global Heat and Sea Level Rise Budgets - Purkey & Johnson (2010)



Full text:


I wonder how much of Trenberth's missing heat this accounts for. But at any case it seems that world ocean heat budget got more accurate with this study.

2010-09-12 19:39:05
Rob Painting
Cheers Ari.
2010-09-13 10:53:34Thanks Ari
John Cook


Figure 9a says a lot with heat gain going off the scale above 2000 metres. I don't know if this will help resolve Trenberth's missing heat to any significant degree. An abyssal warming of 0.027 Wm−2 is a drop in the ocean, pardon the pun. Off the top of my head, aren't we scratching around for around 0.5 Wm−2 ? Of course, the data is very sparse, the ocean is still very under-sampled.

BTW, added this to the database using the Firefox plugin :-)

2010-09-13 12:02:22Does it make sense


for us to discuss this matter?

I would wait for the reaction from the scientific community.

2010-09-13 17:01:30
Ari Jokimäki


John: "An abyssal warming of 0.027 Wm−2 is a drop in the ocean, pardon the pun."

Well, actually that doesn't seem to be whole story. They first say:

"The upper 3000 m of the global ocean has been estimated to warm at a rate equivalent to a heat flux of 0.20 W m–2 applied over the entire surface of the Earth between 1955 and 1998 with most of that warming contained in the upper 700 m of the water column (Levitus et al. 2005). From 1993 to 2008 the warming of the upper 700 m of the global ocean has been reported as equivalent to a heat flux of 0.64 (±0.11) W m–2 applied over the Earth’s surface area (Lyman et al. 2010)."

And then they give their own numbers:

"Here, we showed the heat uptake by AABW contributes about another 0.10 W m–2 to the global heat budget. Thus, including the global abyssal ocean and deep Southern Ocean in the global ocean heat uptake budget could increase the estimated upper ocean heat uptake over the last decade or so by roughly 16%."

This is why I think this could be an important paper (or, even more important than it first appears to be).

2010-09-16 02:29:40


Also look up Gregory Johnson (usually under GC Johnson) in combination w/abyssal warming. "Something's going on down there" but for lack of a few dollars we can't track it properly. I happen to know Greg and am going to continue pestering him until he writes an article for us or tells me to buzz off.

Warming and Freshening in the Abyssal Southeastern Indian Ocean

Recent Bottom Water Warming in the Pacific Ocean

Recent western South Atlantic bottom water warming

2010-09-16 11:58:44Thanks Doug
John Cook

So long as Greg doesn't issue a restraining order, keep up the good work :-)
2010-09-19 10:44:51Comment
Robert Way

Not a study but an interesting graph. John you might love this one


2010-09-23 19:43:41
Ari Jokimäki


Here's another study that's probably of interest here:

A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal Variability in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming - DelSole et al. (2010)


This study suggests that there's multidecadal internal variability (possibly related to AMO) that has contributed to the accelerating warming during last few decades.

2010-09-24 01:04:57comment
Robert Way

Personally, I feel confident going forward saying that the AMO is contributing to current warming but that it cannot explain all of the warming we have seen by any means...
2010-09-24 01:15:09comment
Robert Way

On the required readings section I do an AMO-CO2 regression model which fits GISS nicely...
2010-09-24 11:58:39AMO-CO2 model
John Cook

BTW, Robert, if you want to do a blog post about the AMO-CO2 model, you're welcome to. I think it'll provoke some interesting discussion.
2010-09-29 19:57:58
Ari Jokimäki


This was recently published:

Trends in coastal upwelling intensity during the late 20th century - Narayan et al. (2010):


(Full text is freely available in the abstract page.) Apparently coastal upwelling has increased due to global warming. There's also a known mechanism to explain why it happens. Global warming seems to affect surprisingly many different things.

2010-10-01 16:05:02
Ari Jokimäki


This just arrived to my RSS-reader:

CO2-driven ocean circulation changes as an amplifier of Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum hydrate destabilization - Lunt et al.


The thing that caught my eye there is this:

"Critically, we find an approximate twofold amplification of Atlantic intermediate-water warming when CO2 levels are doubled from 2× to 4× preindustrial CO2 compared to when they are doubled from 1× to 2×."

No full text seems to be freely available but I found some sort of supplement:


2010-10-07 04:20:15Turney and & Jones: Does the Agulhas Current amplify global temperatures during super-interglacials?


Full text:


Worth checking Turney's eyebrow-raising remarks on this paper, at his blog:


2010-10-07 08:24:03
Paul D


An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate (pay wall):



Satellite-based global-ocean mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge -Open Access:


2010-10-10 05:36:10
Ari Jokimäki


Sorry, I'm advertising here a bit....

For those interested, I have started to publish brief notes on new research papers in facebook:


I also tweet them (but I do say more in the facebook):


For those who don't use these resources, I'll make a weekly blog post on the last week's research where I'll include all the things I have said in the facebook. First such post will appear monday in my blog:


2010-10-10 05:44:32

Thank you as always, Ari. No problem w/advertising; you've a great product!
2010-10-10 07:04:09Great Twitter account, Ari
John Cook

Have followed and tweeted your account, fantastic stuff!
2010-10-10 17:31:42
Ari Jokimäki

Thanks guys! :)
2010-10-13 19:25:19
Ari Jokimäki


A new study has been published in Journal of Climate (Anthropogenic Influence on Long Return Period Daily Temperature Extremes at Regional Scales - Zwiers et al.):


"Evaluation of the parameters of the fitted GEV distributions shows that both ANT and ALL influence can be detected in TNx, TNn, TXn, and TXx at the global scale over the land areas for which there are observations, and also regionally over many large land areas, with detection in more regions in TNx."

"Globally, waiting times for extreme annual minimum daily minimum and daily maximum temperatures events that were expected to recur once every 20 years in the 1960s are now estimated to exceed 35 and 30 years respectively. . In contrast, waiting times for circa 1960s 20-year extremes of annual maximum daily minimum and daily maximum temperatures are estimated to have decreased to less than 10 and 15 years respectively."

2010-10-17 03:41:00
Paul D


This turned up yesterday at Science Daily:


Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature
Andrew A. Lacis,* Gavin A. Schmidt, David Rind, Reto A. Ruedy


2010-11-30 09:54:42Royal Society report
Paul D


The Royal Society reports on what the planet would be like with a 4 degree c temp rise:


Interestingly the Society had recently watered down its statement on global warming because a few members complaints.

2010-12-01 15:46:58Royal Society report
Julian Brimelow

The Ville,

 I know, ironic is it not?  They water down their statement on AGW and then this sobering series comes out-- in fact I bet that some of these papers were undergoing review while the RS were watering down their statement.  Hmmm.

 The shift in focus to higher bound sis a little disconcerting, here I was naively hoping (well, a year ago at least) that EQS would be +2 C and that we would limit CO2 levels to 560 ppm.

 No such luck.  I wonder if they will include model runs for trebling of CO2 in AR5.  I'll ask around...

 I'm way, way over committed, but would someone else be interested in covering one or more of the more pertinent papers in the special issue?