2010-10-01 20:59:05One for Robert: WUWT correlate U.S. Temp with AMO + PDO
John Cook

This one made me think of your AMO + PDO graph, Robert:


maybe you should dust off that graph and do a "one graph says it all" response :-)

2010-10-01 22:08:37Two problems
Robert Way

1) Autocorrelation by smoothing series'

2) Using the full regression series as a training series and having actually no prediction

I don't think we need to address this as many errors have been pointed out in the commentaries...
2010-10-01 23:19:52


RE: that post over at WUWT:

Amazing!  The average US temperature is correlated with conditions in the adjacent Atlantic and Pacific Oceans?  Stop the presses!

What's next?  Let me guess ... Australia's climate correlated with ENSO + Indian Ocean Dipole?  Greenland's temperature affected by North Atlantic + Arctic Ocean?  India Monsoon influenced by Indian Ocean?

Somebody get me the correlation coefficient relating "the presence of vapid, poorly thought out posts" to "proximity to WUWT".

2010-10-01 23:24:50LOL
John Cook


I must be spending too much time conversing with Steve Lewandowsky (cognitive scientist) as after reading Ned's (hilarious) comment, I found myself thinking how you could practically quantify vapid comments and do data analysis to compare the quality of "comment intelligence" at different websites.

I seriously need a good night sleep.

2010-10-02 00:01:15Comment
Robert Way

Ned, I have to agree with you on that point too. There's significant literature out there already showing the relationship between the AMO and temperatures in the United States and Canada. One of the guys from WUWT decides to do some correlations and acts like he's solved global warming. They act as if the only changes people see should be due to CO2

A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries

Richard A. Kerr


You really should get some sleep haha... Your idea is kinda interesting though. Would be something a more partisan website could do... How about a correlation between debunked science and Steven Goddard writing at WUWT :P

2010-10-02 00:08:21Excerpt from Kerr(2000)
Robert Way

Still, "we believe more firmly than before that this is real," says Mann of the AMO. "The evidence for this sort of 50- to 70-year oscillation is accumulating in the instrumental observations, proxy climate records, and the climate models." If that is correct, the pace of warming could pick up in the next few decades as a naturally warming North Atlantic combines with a stronger greenhouse warming effect. But it may take a lot more old trees and supercomputing time to calculate how much greenhouse warming will remain the next time the NAO swings to the cool side.