2012-02-21 09:33:07Santorum's conspiracy theory - TCP can drown that theory in hard numbers
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.175.176

Okay, maybe I'm looking at everything through TCP glasses at the moment but I can see TCP being a foil to Santorum's tinfoil hat conspiracy theory that climate science is all a big hoax (pardon the pun):

http://coloradoindependent.com/111924/santorum-and-gingrich-dismiss-climate-change-vow-to-dismantle-the-epa

When deniers talk about conspiracies and painting a picture of global warming based on a handful of flawed studies, what TCP can show is thousands of papers by thousands more authors spanning dozens/hundreds of countries all endorsing the consensus. There are so many ways we could visualise this. Global maps with papers from all the different countries. Visualisations of the number of papers or the number of authors. So many ways to depict this and one thing we might do is make the data all available for other communicators to take it and graphically represent in creative new ways. 

2012-02-21 10:28:44
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
188.152.84.205

Just playing with a world political map, in red countries whose Academy of Sciences published a statement in support of the AGW theory. Some may be missing because I didn't check regional inter-Academies.

2012-02-21 10:48:33Academy of Sciences
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.175.176

Cool visual, you created that, Riccardo?

When is that damn Antarctica Academy of Science going to get on board?!

Someone asked me today if *every* Academy of Science have endorsed AGW - I didn't know. I wonder how many of those white countries have an academy of science who didn't sign up - or simply don't have one.

2012-02-21 11:14:00
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
188.152.84.205

I created it. It was a quick and dirty job and I didn't check if the white states have their own Academy of Science. I know that there are some regional inter-Academies like the Islamic World Academy of Science, the Latin American Academy of Sciences or the African Academy of Science but I didn't check these either.

Checking and icluding the inter-Acedemies shouldn't take too much time, if you're interested. I bet that virtually all the nations would become red but I need to change that color, showing a whole red world would drive people mad!

2012-02-21 11:43:36Map of Academies
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.175.176

Very powerful graphic. My first thought was you should do a blog post highlighting that graphic, it's so powerful, it's the kind of thing you look at and think "why has noone done this before?"

However, another possibility. The plan is we submit our results in a paper to a peer-reviewed journal and when it gets published, we do a promotion blitz - press releases, Peter Sinclair video, collaboration with google, etc. The first section of the paper will feature a literature review on consensus. The theme of that section will basically be that the scientific consensus manifests in various forms - surveys of scientists, organisation endorsements and the peer-reviewed literature. I found one very powerful graphic of a time series of surveys of climate scientists that find the consensus getting stronger over time, ending at 97%. And that's the take-home from our paper - the strengthening consensus.

I have been thinking about how we might visualise all the organisations and academies endorsing the consensus. One way would be to plot the # of orgs endorsing the consensus over time, showing the # growing. But that's a little contrived. I'm liking your map a lot better. So I'm wondering if we should keep our powder dry and save your map for the TCP paper. Food for thought.

2012-02-21 23:16:03
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
192.84.150.209

The Academies of Sciences are supposed to review the science and make an expert judgement. The TCP paper takes a different approach, quantify the consensus statistically.

Using this graphic or the crude numbers in you paper will definitely support the conclusions. Though, to be included in a paper they need to be checked properly and to distinguish between National Academies who signed some kind of document, those who did nothing and the non-existent. One should also check the statements in details to be sure they essentially tell the same story.

Including it or not depends on the structuring of the paper which, I guess, will be decided later.

2012-02-21 23:42:39
Ari Jokimäki

arijmaki@yahoo...
194.251.119.196

That map made me realize that we missed one interesting aspect of rating papers; the geographic distribution of consensus. It might have been interesting to have the countries of authors also in the database.

2012-02-22 07:15:10Countries of authors
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.175.176

That would have been interesting. The potential is still there to capture that information, perhaps. First, from the country code of emails. The info might also be captureable from WoS.

BTW, interesting blog post:

http://getenergysmartnow.com/2012/02/20/climate-change-science-a-simple-table/

Table 1: Professional Societies and Major Relevant Research Institutions on whether humanity is driving climate change

Humanity driving climate change Uncertain about extent of human role
American Association of Petroleum Geologists