2011-09-21 22:06:23Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice
John Cook


Feedback on that paper that finds Arctic sea ice recovers quickly:

I found this interesting paper. "Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice" in which they artificially removed all Arctic sea ice in various simulations and saw that it would recover in just about two years. It's quite interesting in that it suggests that "tipping points" are not likely to exist. 

I'm not qualified at all to interpret or critique their methods but such a dramatic recovery seems a little fishy to me.
Anyway. I think it may serve as an interesting paper to blog about in the site. 

2011-09-21 22:24:40
Dikran Marsupial
Gavin Cawley

It would be nice to blog some good news (subject to the usual caveat that any new paper ought to be taken with a pinch of salt for a few years to see the research communities reaction to it).

2011-09-21 22:28:28
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey

This was discussed extensively on Nevin's blog.

Study assumption was that temp/CO2 were at equilibria.  Since that ain't in the works for many decades from now, the summer ice will be long gone by then.  The Death Spiral continues...

Results show that ice will return to a range of "normal" associated with the current temp/CO2 equilibria point.

Not at all what skeptics think it is.

2011-09-22 13:22:02


You won't find this on any denier blog, but the 'recovery' is back to whatever was the norm before the computer model pixies took away all the ice.  As you say, Daniel, this 'recovery' is back to the prevailing trend, as clearly shown in this graphic from the paper.