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2011-07-29 16:06:35 | Roy Spencer has a news climate deniability paper out | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.9.229 |
Email about Roy "small government" Spencer's latest:
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2011-07-29 16:08:57 | KT's take | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.9.229 |
This is on a private list so not fit for public consumption (eg - would have to get Kevin's permission to reproduce it):
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2011-07-29 19:31:58 | ||
John Mason johntherock@btopenworld... 81.145.248.242 |
I've just read the paper. It's a bit muddled to my thinking and the figures seem rather simplistic. Here's the conclusion:
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Finally, since much of the temperature variability during 2000-2010 was due to ENSO [8], we conclude that ENSO-related temperature variations are partly radiatively forced. We hypothesize that changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation during the El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO cause differing changes in cloud cover, which then modulate the radiative balance of the climate system. As seen in Fig. 3b for the ocean-only data, the signature of radiative forcing is stronger over
That's the longest spelling of "I don't know" that I've seen! More importantly, neither the abstract nor the conclusion appear to have any relevance whatsoever to the crap put out by Heartland. Cheers - John | |
2011-07-29 21:14:53 | ||
Alex C coultera@umich... 67.149.101.148 |
There has been a bit of discussion on Yahoo! Asnwers as well that I have taken part in. Someone has suggested that Spencer's Cp value of 25 meters in his model is too small - indeed, it's at least half of what more realistic mixed depth layers would be. Also, and this was my complaint, Spencer appears to (without any sort of justification) automatically assume a very low climate sensitivity: he disucsses the usual "lambda of 3.3 is neutral, lower than that is positive, higher is negative," and then states how the IPCC thinks lambda hovers somewhere around 1 to 1.5 - then, Spencer chooses 3.0. Uh, what? Here's the question asked there that actually got some good discussion. You'll all recognize Dana; I'm A Modest Proposal, for anyone who hasn't yet remembered from the few times I've referenced Y!A. | |
2011-07-30 09:47:23 | Getting bombarded with this one | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.9.229 |
Have received numerous emails about http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html now, at one point 3 emails from 3 different people within half an hour of each other. Certainly the meme du jour. | |
2011-07-30 10:20:08 | ||
logicman logicman_alf@yahoo.co... 86.177.51.236 |
Score 1 for science ! http://www.livescience.com/15293-climate-change-cloud-cover.html "no climate scientist contacted by LiveScience agreed" [ with Spencer] | |
2011-07-30 10:44:34 | ||
Alex C coultera@umich... 67.149.101.148 |
Interesting article logicman - that's quite the zinger statement. | |
2011-07-30 10:48:23 | RC response | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.9.229 |
RC also hit this overnight: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/07/misdiagnosis-of-surface-temperature-feedback/
Worth asking KT and John Fasullo if they're okay with using an SkSified version of their RC post as an SkS rebuttal to the Spencer paper? I'm going away for the next week on holiday but if someone else wants to make this happen (perhaps someone who has had contact with KT), would be great. | |
2011-07-30 15:46:56 | ||
dana1981 Dana Nuccitelli dana1981@yahoo... 69.230.106.190 |
Daniel Bailey has contacted Trenberth before. I think he's on vacation though. Anyone else want to throw them a line? I'll do it if I get a chance this weekend, if nobody else has. I tried Dessler, but he declined my request for him to write a post on the subject. | |
2011-07-30 16:22:57 | got it | |
dana1981 Dana Nuccitelli dana1981@yahoo... 69.230.106.190 |
Nevermind, I sent them an email just now to see if we can repost their RC article and use it in the database. | |
2011-07-30 20:27:30 | Added argument to database | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.9.229 |
Added this to the database: http://www.skepticalscience.com/roy-spencer-negative-feedback-climate-sensitivity.htm Also added a few blog posts on the paper: http://www.skepticalscience.com/resources.php?a=links&arg=501 And you'll find it at the bottom of the Rebuttal List, number 186. I'm hoping when I get back from holiday (this is the last thing I'm doing before I turn the computer off), the Rebuttal Fairies will have done their magic :-) | |
2011-07-31 01:03:37 | ||
dana1981 Dana Nuccitelli dana1981@yahoo... 69.230.106.190 |
Got approval from Fasullo (who also said he's an SkS fan, by the way). I presume Trenberth won't have a problem. I'll do the rebuttal and blog post sometime this weekend. |