2011-07-14 06:17:05Volcanic Carbon Dioxide
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.9.229

Got this email

I am after some advice if you have the time.
Do you know <Timothy Casey B.Sc. (Hons.) Consulting Geologist> (He is an Australian) and his theory on <Volcanic Carbon Dioxide> chapter 3.0 Abusing Doctor Suess: Pulling the Cat out of the Hat Website below.
http://carbon-budget.geologist-1011.net/
Question:

a. Is what Timothy say have any truth in it?

b. From what I have seen so-far is that volcano's give out about 1% or less CO2, where Timothy is saying that volcano's give out most of the CO2 in our atmosphere.

c. If you have any proof that this is misinformation could send me references.

Is there someone working on a volcano post to go with jg's infographic?

2011-07-15 06:58:46
Chris Colose

colose@wisc...
128.183.2.130

John, I volunteered to do a post on this.  I will start working on it tonight.  Been pretty busy with work lately, so I haven´t had much opportunity to do that or finish the Milankovitch post.

Volcanoes are important on a geologic scale for helping to determine the CO2 concentration of our atmosphere (and also emissions from areas with high heat flow regimes, such as near at plate boundaries), and in fact having a tectonically active planet is often discussed in the planetary science community as a big requirement for long-term habitability.  But over the timescales of anthropogenic climate change, it is decidedly a second-order effect.  Otherwise you would see big spikes in plots of CO2 like that from Mauna Loa after El Chichon, Pinatubo, etc, but you don´t. 

More to come (with references) when I do my post...

2011-07-15 09:36:07
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
96.229.221.76

I've loaded two illustrations that may be of use. both of these are in the Graphics section, but I haven't exposed them to the outside yet (I'd like John's or a super author's approval first):

 

 

2011-07-15 10:20:01
Chris Colose

colose@wisc...
69.86.130.70

I especially like the Mana Loa-volcano one.  Can I implement that in a post?

2011-07-15 11:25:31
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Both look good to me.  Use 'em.

It would be interesting also to have a version of the first one with GISS temps on it as well.

2011-07-15 11:51:50
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
96.229.221.76

Chris: yes. Use any illustration that you find suitable. I made a change to the graphic. Both datasets are from 1960 through to the end of 2010, and in my original illustration, the CO2 stopped about half a year short. It's correct in the version now displayed.

Note that I'll be out of town next week, so if there's any revisions needed, and you plan to post next week, let me know by tomorrow night.

And just in case you need it, here's a version of this graphic scaled to 570 pixels:

jg

2011-07-15 17:24:48Re Daniel's idea of including GISSTemp in the graph
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.9.229
I disagree with including temp in that figure. Your core message is that volcanic eruptions don't add substantially to co2 levels. You only want to include info that reinforces that core message. Adding temp just complicates the graph unnecessarily.

BTW, jg, like both graphics :-)

2011-07-15 21:28:54
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Oh, I didn't intend to use it, John.  I was just curious to see what it would like like.

I've the curiousity of 3 cats.  :-)

2011-07-16 00:50:58
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
98.112.44.162

Hi Daniel,

I agree with John on using the simpler graphic, but I did this one for your curiousity and mine (I forget the normalization applied to the GISS data; it's from Benjamin Franz (Snowhare.com) who shared his common normalization of surface and satelite records here on SKS):

2011-07-16 01:31:10
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Thanks, jg.  About what I thought.  Simpler IS best.

Without doing a deeper time series analysis of the Mauna Loa data than I'm probably certainly capable of, I was just curious about the Pinatubo impact on the Keeling Curve.  The slight flattening of the upward curve in the period covered by Pinatubo is likely chance.  I had wondered about the Pinatubo eruption affecting the CO2 sinks, both terrestrial and oceanic.  Adding the temperature record yields no eyecrometer-significant correlation.

Short of a mega volcano like Mt. Toba or Yellowstone going off for a real-time demonstration of effects/impacts, we'll likely never be able to quantify any impacts, AFAIK.

Thanks for running that graph out for me.  Myth Busted...

Myth Busted

2011-07-16 06:11:37
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
98.112.44.162

Daniel,

Your question got me digging. I have the program that I use to display interacitive graphs of the instrumental record for temperatures, CO2, sunspots, solar irradience, and now, thanks to your question, Optical thickness. Here i the graph viewer showing Volcanos and CO2. I can see how a denialist can claim volcanoes cause the CO2. Notice how the CO2 goes up since 1960 where you also see a spate of volcanic activity. I don't agree with this eyeball analysis, but I think the question should be anticipated in the post on this topic:

2011-11-23 22:31:13beginning of the holocene had more volcanism than currently
jyyh
Otto Lehikoinen
otanle@hotmail...
193.199.20.97

newish paper on volcanism: during de- or reglaciations volcanism increases 2 to 6-fold, can't get the paper itself but this looks like it's done according the ice core record. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X09004166.  so after 7000 BC the volcanos have been as erratic as currently.

2011-11-24 08:48:55
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
24.213.18.68

Opnely available copy is here:

http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3659701/Huybers_FeedbackDeglaciation.pdf?sequence=1

2011-11-24 13:59:46
jyyh
Otto Lehikoinen
otanle@hotmail...
85.77.187.48

Thanks!

2011-11-24 20:46:12
Dikran Marsupial
Gavin Cawley
gcc@cmp.uea.ac...
88.108.213.48

ISTR that Tamino did a post on this which also had a graph showing the effect of super-volcanos on CO2 according to the ice core datasets.

2011-11-24 21:55:40
jyyh
Otto Lehikoinen
otanle@hotmail...
85.78.177.180

Antarctic ice core volcanic activity holocene, GISP2 vs. Siple Dome (SDMA) http://cci.siteturbine.com/uploaded_files/climatechange.umaine.edu/files/cci_contribution26.pdf

Mexico: http://www.geo.ed.ac.uk/tephra/