2011-01-19 11:04:56Monckton Myth #7: Snowjob
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252

Nobody has claimed Monckton's snow cover myth:

10. GLOBAL SNOW COVER IS FALLING, INFERENTIALLY BECAUSE OF MAN’S INFLUENCE.
In fact, a new record high for snow cover was set in the winter of 2008/2009, and there is some chance that a further record high will be set this year.

I presume he's using Rutgers' data, even though it's just Northern Hemisphere.  Pretty easy to debunk this myth by plotting their data and calculating the long-term trend, then point out Monckton's cherrypicking.

Weekly

Monthly

download .txt data files

Anybody want to take this one?  Tamino did a post on this called "Cherry Snow" on 2/18/10, but it's one of the lost Open Mind posts, which didn't make it onto Daniel's recovery list.

*UPDATE* I drafted this one up.  Scroll down to the posts below.

2011-01-21 04:34:28I guess I can take it
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252

If nobody else wants this one, I guess I can take it.  I'm not sure where Monckton gets the claim that '08-'09 winter snow cover was a record.  According to Rutgers NH winter data, 1978 was much higher extent.  But more importantly, the spring trend is dramatically downward, as is the annual trend.  I plotted the average annual extent in Excel and got a trend of -34,000 km2 per year, or -1.3 million km2 from 1972 to 2010.  The graph looks decent, but John, I may ask you to pretty it up.

2011-01-21 05:10:28Flanner et al.
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252

Today's climate articles had a relevant study worth mentioning - Flanner et al. (2011) from Nature Geoscience

The extent of snow cover1 and sea ice2 in the Northern Hemispherehas declined since 1979, coincident with hemispheric warming and indicative of a positive feedback of surface reflectivity on climate....We find that cyrospheric cooling declined by 0.45Wm−2 from 1979 to 2008, with nearly equal contributions from changes in land snow cover and sea ice. On the basis of these observations, we conclude that the albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere falls between 0.3 and 1.1Wm−2K−1, substantially larger than comparable estimates obtained from 18 climate models.

Can anyone hook me up with a free copy of the study?

They also reference Dery and Brown (2007) which confirms my trend of -1.3 million km2 in N. Hemisphere snow cover extent since 1972.

2011-01-21 06:06:57Flanner
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Dana,

 I have a copy of the Flanner paper.  I also sent a copy  to John. I can probably track down Dery and Brown (2007)-- they have a more recent paper out too on trends in N. Hemisphere cover which is here:

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/4/2483/2010/tcd-4-2483-2010-print.pdf

Anyhow, I can email it to you if you like?  I would need an email though ;)

Ooh, here is Dery and Brown...gotta love Google Scholar.

http://web.unbc.ca/~sdery/publicationfiles/2007GL031474.pdf

2011-01-21 06:38:31thanks
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252

Yeah I found Dery and Brown on Scholar too.  Flanner would be much appreciated though -

dana1981@yahoo.com

2011-01-21 06:58:37Flanner
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Hi Dana,

 I'll send it along after lunch if that is OK....

2011-01-21 07:35:26thanks
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252
Thanks Albatross, much appreciated.
2011-01-23 07:06:50drafted
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.210
Okay I drafted this one upMark's post on Flanner et al. 2011 isn't quite ready (I mention the paper at the end of MM #7).  I was thinking it would make more sense to publish his first, but maybe mine will work as brief intro to the paper, which Mark can then expand upon in his post.  Any thoughts on the order we publish them in?
2011-01-23 07:47:43
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.213.70

Yet more great work. Just a minor change:

"In the near future, global warming will not necessarily result in less winter snowfall"

Eventually winter snow extent will decline too, although we may not be around to see it. 

2011-01-23 08:17:46near future
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.210
That's why I was careful to say "near future", Rob.
2011-01-23 09:29:09
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.248.128

Sorry Dana, a lack of clarity on my part. The sentence doesn't include "In the near future" that was my little addition. It's under the heading "Why should snow cover decline?". A minor detail I know.

 

2011-01-23 10:31:58
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
93.147.82.103

I didn't read Flanner 2011; does it says something about snow cover declining faster than predicted?

 Useless, but just to play with numbers I calculated the trend for each month:

 NH snow trend

2011-01-23 11:53:51Good work
James Wight

jameswight@southernphone.com...
112.213.158.135

This must have been a difficult one to write since Monckton didn’t name a source for his claim about global snow cover. It’s frustrating because that should work against him, but in a “debate” it sort of works in his favour!

2011-01-23 14:24:38
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.210

Aha, thanks Rob, good catch.

Riccardo - yes, Flanner found that the snow cover and sea ice decline feedbacks are happening faster than projected.  I presume that must mean the decline is faster than projected, but I should probably read the study more carefully.

James - not too hard actually.  I knew Rutgers is the go-to source for snow cover data.  And they make their data easily available, so it was simple to analyze.

2011-01-24 07:41:03update
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.210
I added more information about Flanner et al. and how it relates to (refutes) Monckton's claims, and added links to Mark's article.  I also added a bit to the conclusion to make it more critical of Monckton, considering that he's still making the same false claims about winter snow extent (in the Australian article).  I thought it was worthwhile to hammer home the extreme degree of cherrypicking in this particular myth, because really it's hard to cherrypick any worse than looking at 0.6% of the data, and only looking at the least relevant season (winter).
2011-02-03 03:32:50
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Riccardo,

 May we please post your graphic (posted 23 Jan 2011, 10:31 AM) on the SkS thread when rebutting arguments?