2011-09-26 09:24:09Dana, idea for "climate prediction" series
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
130.102.158.12

Dana, you might want to look at this as a potential subject for a post:

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/09/25/328108/joe-bastardi-forecaster/

2011-09-26 09:58:23yes
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.106.125

Agreed, John.  I took a photo of the hand-drawn Arctic sea ice prediction:

Associated commentary:

"we're gonna recover dramatically here with the cold that is coming over the next 9 to 12 months.  I think next year you're going to see the latest start to the sea ice melt that we've seen in a long time"

The tricky thing will be comparing his hand-drawn graph to actual data.  Any ideas?

It wouldn't hurt to note Watts and Goddard's Arctic sea ice prediction failures too, noted by Neven.

2011-09-26 13:13:21
thingsbreak

things.break@gmail...
98.204.66.145

Also Easterbrook projections mentioned in the IPCC AR4 post comments.

2011-09-26 15:46:28
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.106.125

Already did those, thingsbreak.  I think Easterbrook was the first in the series, as a matter of fact.

2011-09-28 14:05:40
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.106.125

Does this look like a reasonable recreation of Bastardi's prediction above?  Bear in mind his graph is of DMI data, which only go back to 2005, whereas I'm plotting JAXA data, which go back to 2002.  And the anomalies are a bit different.  But Bastardi said it would end up close to 2005, and his line is actually close to 2006, so my Bastardi re-creation is right between the 2005 and 2006 minima.

Bastardi

2011-09-28 14:17:19
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.194.29.252

Yes, closer to 2006 since drawing by hand is never perfect; it's a bit steep down near the end, his becomes shallower by the end point.

2011-09-28 14:17:39
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.194.29.252

Make the line thicker to give yourself some wiggle room.

2011-09-28 14:18:23
Brian Purdue

bnpurdue@bigpond.net...
121.218.161.146

Bastardi's 2011 ice predictions are here (WUWT) http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/23/joe-bastardis-2011-arctic-sea-ice-prediction/

Note his real prediction "the ice is coming back" by 2030.

2011-09-28 14:38:22
Brian Purdue

bnpurdue@bigpond.net...
121.218.161.146

There's someone else on Watts and Bastard's tracks http://wottsupwiththat.com/2010/11/24/joe-bastardi%e2%80%99s-2011-arctic-sea-ice-prediction/

There could be something fishy going on. Three months ago I played the Bastardi video but I can't now. Can anyone else play it?

2011-09-28 16:16:14
Tom Curtis

t.r.curtis@gmail...
112.213.169.163

I can.