2011-09-16 04:35:19Indeed, it is likely that 97 per cent of scientists do agree that this small amount of warming is occurring - Kabat & Adair .
John Hartz
John Hartz
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Is the following a new twist on the "It's not that bad" meme? Does SkS already have a rebuttal for the computations shown in the footnote?


"Both Brooks and Krugman invoked the widely cited consensus on global warming that allows no rational dissent. In fact, the evidence supporting some effect of carbon-dioxide levels on global temperature is very strong. However, the magnitude of the effect is fairly small, and this is where the confusion lies. A quick calculation based on figures from the 2007 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report shows that over the past 200 years the average increase in global temperature attributable to greenhouse gases is about one-quarter of a degree Celsius (1). This accounts for roughly one third of the 0.8 degrees Celsius observed warming over that period. (For reference, warming of one-quarter of a degree Celsius corresponds to moving 20 miles south in the Midwest of the USA.) Indeed, it is likely that 97 per cent of scientists do agree that this small amount of warming is occurring."

(1) The increase in forcing from CO2 (and, also, from all anthropogenic sources) (IPCC PSB, page 32) is 1.6 W/m2. The total radiation absorbed by the surface (IPCC page 96, 168+324) is 492 W/m2. Thus, the additional contribution is 1.6/492 = 0.0032 (or 0.32 per cent). This added energy to the surface is gotten rid of mainly by radiation from the surface (page 96, 390/492) which goes as the fourth power of the temperature (Stefan-Boltzmann law). Thus the temperature increase will be about 0.32 per cent/4=0.08 per cent. The average absolute temperature of the surface is about 290 degrees K. Thus the direct increase is 0.0008 X 290 = 0.236 K = 0.236 C.

Source: "The feeble consensus on climate change: Why has it become taboo simply to point out that scientists disagree quite a lot about global warming?" by Geoffrey C Kabat and Robert K Adair, Spiked, Sep 15, 2011

Geoffrey C Kabat is an epidemiologist at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and the author of Hyping Health Risks. Robert K Adair is Sterling Professor Emeritus of Physics at Yale University and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. 

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