2011-07-27 00:25:37Devastating African Droughts Seen from Space -- Planetsave
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Devastating African Droughts Seen from Space would make an excellent cross-post. It contains spectacular satellite imagery.  

2011-07-28 07:17:48La Nina, not climate change, probable cause of East Africa’s drought–ILRI livestock scientists
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Click here to access this article.

2011-07-28 08:06:59
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.41.180

Not so sure about that Badger. Unless La Nina last for decades. More likely an added misery.

2011-07-28 08:20:39too soon to say for certain
Stephen Leahy

writersteve@gmail...
208.74.213.247

I believe Phil at ILRI said it was too soon to say for certain what role CC played in the current drought. He is one of the authors of the Oxford 4C papers - interviewed him a few months back about future of African ag - not good.

As World Warms, Southern Africa Will Cook In Coming Decades

2011-07-28 08:48:02Stephen Leahy
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

What are the Oxford 4C papers? Link?

2011-07-28 13:50:57oxford papers - 30 seconds to find on google
Stephen Leahy

writersteve@gmail...
208.74.213.247

http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/news/articles/1011294degrees.php

2011-07-29 03:26:08Stephen Leahy
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Thanks.

2011-07-29 05:57:29soliciting an explanation
citizenschallenge
Peter Miesler
citizenschallenge7@gmail...
166.183.119.98

I wonder if someone could help explain something to me. 

Aren't there studies indicating that the ENSO has qualitatively altered it's pattern over the past couple decades? 

Aren't those changes related to global warming? 

And if that is the case, how can the following claim be made?

 

La Nina, not climate change, probable cause of East Africa’s drought–ILRI livestock scientists


‘He told IRIN via email that projections of the climate change impact in east Africa were “a problem” as the authoritative inter-governmental panel on climate change’s (the IPCC) fourth assessment report “indicated that there was good consensus among the climate models that rainfall was likely to increase during the current century.

‘”But work by other climate scientists since then suggests that . . . certain Indian Ocean effects in east Africa may not actually occur.

‘”Some people think that east Africa is drying, and has dried over recent years; currently there is no hard, general evidence of this, and it is very difficult as yet to see where the statistical trends of rainfall in the region are heading, but these will of course become apparent in time.”

‘The IPCC’s fifth assessment report will be released in 2014.

‘Jan de Leeuw is the operating project leader in the vulnerability and sustainability in pastoral and agro-pastoral systems within ILRI’s people, livestock and environment theme. He points out that this La Niña event is one of the strongest since the 1970s. But he says La Niña, along with El Niño, appear in cycles that “we don’t understand”.