2011-07-22 00:35:02New Hansen paper now available
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161
Paleoclimate Implications: Accepted Paper and 'Popular Science'


"Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change" has been reviewed, revised in response to the referee's suggestions, and accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (Eds. A. Berger, F. Mesinger and D Šijački), Springer.
 
This final version has also been published in arXiv:1105.0968v3 [physics.ao-ph]
 
A 'popular science' summary of the paper, intended for lay audience, is available.
 
Thanks especially to reviewer Dana Royer for helpful comments, foundations and NASA program managers for research support, and a number of people for comments on an early draft of the paper, as delineated in the acknowledgements.
 
Jim Hansen

2011-07-22 08:38:51
grypo

gryposaurus@gmail...
173.69.56.151

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_15/PaleoImplications.pdf

 

Perhaps we can repost this?  Anyone have a contact with Hansen?

2011-07-22 14:56:11
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
184.48.144.239

If people feel it's appropriate, I can reach out to him like I did Dr. Trenberth.

2011-07-22 19:56:29Seen that one.
jyyh
Otto Lehikoinen
otanle@hotmail...
85.76.128.183

Skimmed through the paper and the figure that has the proxy T from Antarctica ice core vs the calculated T is notable to me at least, is this the best approximation of the ice age cycles by modelling yet? Is there someone on the site who could reproduce that or something similar, the image itself could convince some of the possibilities of (some) models. (fig.2 d), e) )

The higher peaks in the Antarctic record are very likely for the retention time of the heat to the deep sea, as Hansen himsef notes. I'm still not convinced of the 'Hansens dangerous temperature', which would be right about now or in ten years (+1C over preindustrial), but what is dangerous for one isn't to another, so I'm taking a note of this.

2011-07-22 20:49:49
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.92.170

Reach out Yooper, reach out. Oh, and being Maori myself, pass on my appreciation of his Maori greeting at his talk in Auckland. He did a great job.

2011-07-22 23:27:53
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
99.57.105.101

Will do, Rob.

In class right now, will look into it tonight (day 4 of OJT with the "new" job...Broadcast television & internet advertising sales...Yeah, me!).  Whatthehell, it's a job (that I've done well at, having worked in it for 4 years earlier in my life).

2011-07-22 23:56:57
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
84.151.37.185

dB,

Great news.

2011-07-23 02:15:44
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Way to go Daniel!  Very happy for you :)

2011-07-23 03:22:52
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
99.57.105.101

60% paycut = better than no job at all...

But thank you all for the kind thoughts.

 

Any news on your front, Albie?  Rob, you still considering that change?

2011-07-23 03:31:13
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

No news Dan...thanks for asking. I have money until Christmas....so it could be much worse.  Have to go and meet with sa couple of people I know in academia, as my options with the Feds are pretty much dead in the water b/c of the neo cons.

The pay cut really sucks, keep your eyes open for more opportunities.

2011-07-23 05:32:45
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161
2011-07-23 07:41:03
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.226.173

Yooper, yeah. Was contacted the other day about a short-term but lucrative job down in Christchurch (earthquake city), so encouraging at least. I've applied to rejoin the Police, so we'll see how that goes - a major negative is that they'll have to pay me too much because of my prior service. In an age of tightening budgets, it might be a reason for them to turn me down. 

2011-07-23 11:06:12Badger's link seems to be broken; here's one that should work
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
64.134.160.12

http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.0968

2011-07-23 11:32:53
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
64.134.160.12

Request sent

2011-07-24 12:38:14Ball's in our court now
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Permission granted (response noted at bottom). 

 

Does someone want to do a blog post on the paper itself?  If not, I'll just repost his press release verbatim as a blog post.

 

"Daniel, sure, you are welcome to publish our paper and/or the write-up on it. Jim"

2011-07-24 13:36:50
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.73.57

Re-post I reckon. Volunteers tend to be in short supply.

2011-07-24 14:35:34
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Forum comment thread here:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/thread.php?t=2356

2011-07-24 21:15:51Hmm.
jyyh
Otto Lehikoinen
otanle@hotmail...
193.65.140.235

Began to go through the full paper and translating it to the language of non-scientists, would this sort of thing be good for SkS, or do I leave it here? You may pickup from here too if you think it's OK.

Hansen & Sato (2011) for Dummies by jyyh

Ms. Sato and Dr.Hansen have compiled a paper in the typical scientific style that is quite arduouos to read, but that's what science is. The paper starts with an abstract.

Abstract:
Suggestion is made to rapidly decrease the use of fossil fuels. This would be very much advisable according to them, because of the measurements made of global sea levels during interglacials in Pleistocene (the warm periods between ice ages also known as glacials) and the glacier meltdowns happening currently on the northern hemisphere (we're in summer here). Further they suggest that a some of the ice sheets (f.e. GIS, WAIS) may rapidly (rather like in a hundred years) vanish if the warming continues.

Specifically they argue against some other scientists that the 'limit of safe warming' (2 degrees warming above the preindustrial (before the invention of the car) level, by some other scientists) is too high and that the globe is very near the max 'safe temperature', or maybe even at it.

1.Introduction
As this is a long 27-page article with no less than 4 and ½ pages of links to reference material, the Introduction is used to describe the structure of the article to ease the finding of the relevant stretches of text if some scientist wants to cite this article. Skip this one over if you want to read the whole piece. They casually mention here the scope of the study, which is the last 65.5 million years (Cenozoic), and how the AGW relates to this period.

2.Cenozoic Climate Change
The first scientific chapter of the paper starts by stating the fact that deep water is colder than the surface water if there enough heat about (no ice f.e.). Then they claim the deep water warms up if the the atmosphere warms up, for long enough time. And further they claim that the temperature of the deep water through the entire Cenozoic can be measured by any skilled scientist if they obtain a long, deep ocean column of dirt from the tropical ocean first (possibly by sending some graduates with some impressive drilling skills to tropics). This method would be described in some reference, I guess, and they provide the record on a website (I guess it's too long for the paper). They admit later in the paper that the muck from the bottom of the ocean is so compacted they've had to average the temperature measured this way (a proxy) over a very long period (1000 years during the Pleistocene), but that this is not relevant in their analysis.

Then follows a long written description of the record which can be skipped by looking carefully the image 1 and accepting that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and that continents can't always hold their carbon, and knowing that corals are mostly made of carbonate. Some temperature changes appear to be fast, but the scale of the image is pretty immense. The lowermost section has the entire prehistory and history of man in the rightmost half of the image! But that's another matter. The basic thing to absorb from the image is to realise earth can be way hotter than now and still have life (mammal fossils have been found throughout the Cenozoic)

2011-07-24 21:49:10
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.82.223

"The basic thing to absorb from the image is to realise earth can be way hotter than now and still have life (mammal fossils have been found throughout the Cenozoic)"

It's the speed of current change that is the problem. I don't think anyone has suggested there were no mammals throughout the Cenozoic. But note what happened during the PETM - mammals shrunk considerably. Maybe there wasn't enough food around? Maybe it was a way to survive the much higher temperatures? (more efficient heat loss)

And the other major, major problem is all the various ways humans have disrupted natural systems, such as the Nitrogen Cycle and introduced pest species around the world. This homogenization of diversity will probably make it vastly more difficult for life to adapt. And warming, and particularly elevated CO2, makes leaves less nutritious, and interferes with the plant chemical response to browsing by herbivores. This leads to increases in leaf damage and is evident is fossilled leaves from the PETM (and FACE trials). Granted that was much warmer and CO2 levels much higher than we'll see in coming decades, but it does give a outline of the likely path.

Humans will survive global warming, I'm in no doubt of that, but in what form? 

2011-07-24 22:00:02Rob
jyyh
Otto Lehikoinen
otanle@hotmail...
85.77.112.10

yes, I didn't get to the scary part of the paper yet... maybe it is futile to try to make the message not so scary here.  

2011-07-24 22:15:20
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.82.223

If you can write a layperson's version it'll be great. I'm not trying to put you off.