2011-07-15 19:42:13New minimum in sea ice extent and volume anomoly
perseus

owlsmoor@googlemail...
188.220.205.42

It appears we are at a new minimum in Arctic sea ice extent for the time of year and the Antarctic is on the low side as well, so Deniers will have to invent another excuse. Will we see a new extent low this year?

The volume anomoly is at another low as well

 

 

 

 

 

2011-07-15 21:32:31
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Looking like an upside-down hockey stick.

Death spiral?  Or free-falling plummet?

Inquiring minds want to know...

2011-07-15 21:45:13
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.149.101.148

I myself had been shocked when the volume data for 2010 dropped to almost 4 standard deviations from the mean trend in such a short time frame, apparently this year diverges even more.  With the September minimum still ahead of us I wonder what the final result will be for both.

2011-07-15 22:28:32
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Per buoy 2011C (where North Pole Webcam 2 is located):

Initial Conditions
Snow Depth: 5 cm
Ice Thickness at Thermistors: 140 cm

Below Measurements from temperature profiles
Maximum Measurements
Snow Thickness: 15 cm (6/14/11)
Ice Thickness: 160 cm (6/21/11)

Recent Measurements (6/21/11)
Snow Thickness: 0 cm
Ice Thickness:140 cm

Snow Melt: 15 cm (All snow melted)
Ice Surface Melt: 20 cm
Bottom Surface Melt: 0 cm

So in 1 week the ice lost 20 centimeters thickness.

Webcam2 shows these images for those date ranges:

6-14                          6-21

6-14       6-21

So what kind of ice thickness will it show for July, when updated?

7-15

7-15

Given the thin ice re-formation in the near field (bottom of the image), I'd say the melt pond has "bottomed-out" and has mixed with the colder Arctic Ocean waters immediately under the melting ice.  The result, if correct, is that the ice edges shown would represent the freeboard of the ice.

If that interpretation is correct, which is a train of "ifs", then it would appear via Eyecrometer (Mk 2011, build 7.15.8.28) that the average ice thickness in the field of view is about 1 meter now (WAG).  With another 6-8 weeks of viably significant melt season left ahead.

Good thing the webcam is mounted to a buoy...

2011-07-15 22:58:07
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.208.86

I wonder if this is the year when a few jaws hit the floor? If not, it won't be too many years away.

2011-07-16 00:36:02
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

2012, especially if El Nino rears its ugly head this year.  2011 is just preconditioning the ice for the collossal melt to come...

Hot, hot, hot...

2011-07-16 01:13:22
Paul D

chillcast@googlemail...
82.18.130.183

I wonder if this is the year when a few jaws hit the floor? If not, it won't be too many years away.

 

Well you only have 2 to 3 months to find out :-)

2011-07-16 02:05:45
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Hi all,

I would caution people about being too vocal in the blogosphere about where this melt season could be going.  As we all know, Arctic sea ice is fickle and I would not count my chickens yet.  Also, if predictions about a new record low are made now and if it does not come to pass then it just fuels the "alarmist" and "hysterical" meme that the deniers like to perpetuate.  State the facts at the time, perhaps note that the data are interesting and then leave it at that.

Off the record, if current melt rates and export rates continue (or in the case of the latter, increase) we may even break 4 million km^2....

As for an El Nino later this year, that is looking increasingly unlikely, some guidance is now suggesting a very weak/marginal La Nina (nothing like last year) may develop near Christmas..  And that is OK for me, because if we set a record high GAT in 2012, then one cannot blame it on El Nino.  Anyhow, a strong eastward propagating Kelvin wave could change the ENSO situation, although the unusually warm water below the surface in the tropical Pacific is diminishing.

2011-07-16 02:15:31
Paul D

chillcast@googlemail...
82.18.130.183

Yeah, Albatross is correct, especially in the blogosphere.

2011-07-16 02:51:45
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.208.86

This is a private forum, we can speculate all we like. I'm always of the opinion you do your bragging after the deed, not before it. 

2011-07-16 02:54:02
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Good points, all.

FWIW, my WAG at Neven's was 4.0 ± 0.3 km2 with weather constituting the uncertainty  

 

"although the unusually warm water below the surface in the tropical Pacific is diminishing."

Would that mean being sequestered in the deep ocean?

2011-07-16 03:25:51
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.208.86

Australian BOM & others still predicting a warming toward El Nino, but weaker than previously expected through the Austral spring. I hope so, otherwise much of the southern US is going to be completely knackered if those drought conditions persist.

2011-07-16 03:27:21
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.208.86

" because if we set a record high GAT in 2012, then one cannot blame it on El Nino."

No it'll get blamed on La Nina, or neutral conditions!

2011-07-16 03:33:03
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Thanks Rob, Yes,of course here is OK, I'm mean out "there" :)

Here is the link to the BOM forecast that Rob was referring to.  The CFS is quite aggressive in its prediction of the cooling, but it has not got a good track record IMHO.

The GMAO has backe doff for an El Nino and is now calling for neutral conditions:

 

IMHO, I expect neutral conditions, but I'm just one of those CAGW alarmists ;)

2011-08-15 18:44:39
perseus

owlsmoor@googlemail...
188.220.205.42

 Arctic sea ice area (not to be confused with extent) appears to be on course for a minimum this year.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/climateprogress/lCrX/~3/QlB1I_GDvFE/

 

Arctice sea ice area

 

2011-08-16 04:37:27physically
jyyh
Otto Lehikoinen
otanle@hotmail...
85.78.180.3

@grumbines': "my current number is about 4.26Mkm2, July 20, 2011 9:07 AM", not much point predicting the minimum a day before :-). much worthier would be to predict the opening day of the passages, at least on the economical side of the equation. the method was just assuming constant (slowly rising with CO2) heat transport to the arctic ocean and after summer solstice adding relative albedos from the extra cloud formation. left out the snow that begins to fall on the remaining ice and open water which should inrease the albedo in late summer and cool the ocean surface somewhat. so that number may also be too low.

2011-08-16 06:09:03The Arctic's Diminishing Sea Ice -- NPR Graphic
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

NPR has begun posting a six part series, "Race to the Arctic."  

Part of the sieries is a an animated graphic showing the annual extent of Arctic sea ice for the time period, 1980-2010.

The first article of the series, "Arctic Warming Unlocking A Fabled Waterway," was posted today (Aug 15) and can be accessed by clicking here.     

2011-08-16 17:54:01
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
134.225.187.197

I spoke to some UK sea ice specialists a coupla weeks ago, and they were very cautious about completely trusting PIOMAS.

 

It's a model and whilst it's been tested against ICESat, that's only for a very short time period before the really crazy decline they report started happening. I was told not to put too much stock in PIOMAS until it can be confirmed by Cryosat-II...

Perhaps something to bear in mind when reporting it - we might need to make it clear that this data is waiting on confirmation.