2011-07-09 08:06:03Where do doctoral dissertations fit in the scheme of things?
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

The following was just posed on the comment thread to SoD's "Models, On – and Off – the Catwalk – Part Three."

DeWitt Payne

And here’s another doctoral thesis on temperature change leading carbon isotope injection during the PETM by 5,000 years:

http://igitur-archive.library.uu.nl/dissertations/2006-0906-200913/index.htm

I don’t disagree that the combined sensitivity of ice-sheet extent and CO2 at maximum ice sheet extent is high. But ice-sheet extent is low right now so the combined sensitivity isn’t going to be anywhere near as large. And the CO2 contribution to the ice-sheet sensitivity is less than half, IMO, considerably less than half.

The above is the first time I have seen a blog post that references a doctoral dissertation. In the wonderfual world of science, does a dissertation have the same status as a published, peer-reviewed paper?

2011-07-09 08:20:02
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.37.100

Badger, Appy Slujis has gone on to publish work on the PETM, since the time of his dissertation. There is no doubt that warming must have led to the release of methane hydrates, how else does your "skeptic" opponent think it could have happened?

The problem is, as Jerry Dickens, has repeated pointedly out is that warming during the PETM was much higher than we would expect given the supposedly lower climate sensitivity during a "Greenhouse Earth" period. Climate models get the PETM totally wrong - they don't simulate conditions hot enough, nor the vastly diminished temperature gradients from the equator-to-pole and surface to deep ocean.

Has that SOD guy started cleaning up the graffiti yet?

2011-07-09 08:43:14Rob Painting
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

The person behind the SoD screen has sporadically chimed in on the comment thread. He/she seems to want to position him/herself above the fray. His code of etiquitte doesn't even allow the word "denier" to be used in a comment. 

I'll admit that I don't fully comprehend SoD's initial post or all of the posts on the comment thread. I must say, however, that I am no longer convinced that SoD is firmly planted in the AGW camp.  

2011-07-09 09:28:01Rob Painting
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Is Appy Slujis highly regarded in scientific circles? 

2011-07-09 10:22:51
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.219.60

Badger, the SOD post seems like waffle to me. We know the climate models do a poor job at some things, despite this they are incredibly useful tools. If you look at a lot of the modeling experiments they have to double or quadruple the level of CO2 to induce changes that we are now observing in the real world- with only a near 40% increase in CO2. That indicates that the models themselves are not sensitive enough. Why is that never brought up?

Appy Slujis - your opponent is trying to cast him as a skeptic?, or one disagrees with the convention? Don't think so, he seems well regarded, and quite the smart cookie, as far as I can tell. I realize I wasn't clear enough earlier - the warming that preceded the PETM is widely accepted - that's what set off the release of methane hydrates (if indeed they were the prime mover). So your opponent is arguing a strawman.

2011-07-09 10:43:35
Andy S

skucea@telus...
66.183.161.194

I may have posted this before, but this is a good recent review of the PETM.

If anything, many PETM studies tend to predictions of very high sensitivity or the addition of unknown feedbacks, like this one.

2011-07-09 12:16:46
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.219.60

Badger, I've added a comment to that thread. I could tell it was winding you up. 

2011-07-09 17:47:06
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.219.60

Bah, I done commenting there. Looks like only 2 links per post are allowed - spat out my last one.

2011-07-09 23:52:48Rob
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Muchos gracias. Your posts are right on!