2011-06-25 01:54:52Tipping Points -- A SkS void???
John Hartz
John Hartz
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The SkS search engine generates only seven articles when "tipping points" is keyed into it. 

None of the seven articles comprehensively addresses this issue. 

Do we have a "void" to be filled?

2011-06-25 04:09:42If the void is being filled:
Hoskibui

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157.157.186.212

Here are some links about tipping points:

New article: Climate Change Disasters Can Be Predicted, Study Suggests ScienceDaily (June 19, 2011)

Climate Lab hasa a post on Tipping Points

Also: Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Tipping Elements in Earth Systems Special Feature: Tipping elements in the Earth System. PNAS, December 7, 2009 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0911106106

I agree, a well written post about tipping points would be useful :)

Edit - link fixed :)

2011-06-25 06:23:33Hoskibui
John Hartz
John Hartz
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98.122.98.161

Thanks for the feedback. I'm going to do some research on this topic and will draft an article -- unless someone else with more expertise on this matter steps forward.

BTW, the link to the second article you cited is broken.  

2011-06-25 08:01:20
Rob Painting
Rob
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118.93.21.143

One of the tipping points is the die-back of the Amazon rainforest. Prof Tim Lenton has done a bit of work on the topic of tipping points.

2011-06-26 00:15:42Entomology of the phrase
John Hartz
John Hartz
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Based on a cursory review, it appers to me that the phrase, "tipping point" came into widespread use sometime between 2000 and 2004. How does this square with your recollection?

2011-06-26 00:48:39Abrupt changes
John Hartz
John Hartz
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One of the seminal reports on what was to become soon known as "tipping points" is:

National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Abrupt Climate Change (2002). Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences (online here).

This NAS report defines abrupt climate change as follows:

"What defines a climate change as abrupt? Technically, an abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a transition to a new state at a rate determined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause. Chaotic processes in the climate system may allow the cause of such an abrupt climate change to be undetectably small."

Are you aware of other seminal papers and/or reports on abrupt climate change/tipping points?

 

2011-06-26 06:24:45Hoskibui
John Hartz
John Hartz
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98.122.98.161

The climate Lab's article on Tipping Points is awesome. It also led me to another excellent article, Tipping points in the Earth system by Prof. Tim Lenton, Earth System Modeling Group, Universty of East Anglica. 

2011-06-27 13:27:10New paper published in Nature Geoscience....
John Hartz
John Hartz
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98.122.98.161

The following article is based on a new paper by Paul Valdes, a climate modeler and "paleoclimate" specialist at the University of Bristol  published in the new issue of the journal Nature Geoscience.

"Judging from the evidence, Earth's climate is more sensitive than the computer models designed to simulate its behavior."

Abrupt Climate Change: Models of Behavior posted on DiscoveryNews, June 26, 2011