2011-06-21 10:28:34Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

In a  rush, again:

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/13/1015619108.abstract

 

Look at their Fig. 2c.....

2011-06-21 10:36:47
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.99.9

Hmmmmm.........reminds me of?...... hockey puck........nah, hockey helmet.....nope. I got it!, it's a hockey stick!!!!!!!

2011-06-21 11:13:09Click on figures for larger copies
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

SLR Last 2000 Years

Fig. 2. (A) Composite EIV global land plus ocean global temperature reconstruction (1), smoothed with a 30-year LOESS low-pass filter (blue). Data since AD 1850 (red) are HADCrutv3 instrumental temperatures. Values are relative to a preindustrial average for AD 1400–1800 (B) RSL reconstructions at Sand Point and Tump Point since BC 100. Boxes represent samplespecific age and sea-level uncertainties (2σ). Inset is a comparison with nearby tide-gauge data. (C) GIA-adjusted sea level at Sand Point and Tump Point expressed relative to a preindustrial average for AD 1400–1800. Sea level data points are represented by parallelograms because of distortion caused by GIA, which has a larger effect on the older edge of a data point than on the younger edge. Times of changes in the rate of sea-level rise (95% confidence change-point intervals) are shown. Pink envelope is a nine degree polynomial to visually summarize the North Carolina sea-level reconstruction.

 

Large


2011-06-21 11:45:54Here's Romm's simplified version
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Kemp & Mann 2011

2011-06-21 11:49:06URGENT - we should do a post about this
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.9.229

I've quickly adapted Figure 2c into a much simpler high-rez graphic to add to our graphics resource (keeping in mind simplicity is the key to effective communication). I'd like to get this out ASAP - if we're one of the first to break this, the graphic will go viral:

If anyone has time to quickly summate the paper into a blog post over the next 24 hours, would be great! Doesn't need to be any great detail - the message you wish to communicate is very simple and backed up by the graphic. Any other details on the methods and other restuls from the paper are just salad dressing.

2011-06-21 13:07:44
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Sorry John,  I'm stay-at-home dad tomorrow, so chasing little Albie chicks around.

An interesting, me thinks observation (I have not read the paper yet) is that the peak in GSL following the MWP was near 1500, some 400 years or so after the peak of the MWP....his doesn't bode well what awaits people living in low lying areas susceptible to flooding.

The unusual current downward blip aside, it looks like there is a whole lot of sea-level rise in the pipeline.  So looks like 20 cm per 0.5 C warming (using the MWP data), we expect 3-4 C warming so by silly back-of-the envelope translates into a 1.2 to 1.6 m rise in GSL down the road. But that does not take into account tipping points for the GIS etc of course.  Anyhow, just musing.

2011-06-21 13:09:20
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Rob @ 21 Jun 2011, 10:36 AM,

Very funny :)

2011-06-21 13:56:14got it covered
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.102.37

I can slap something together quickly for this.  Will post it in the blog section shortly.