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2011-06-13 11:26:30 | Literature on past climate change trends | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.9.229 |
Got this email:
I would answer that the idea of human induced CCC is not predicated on unprecedented warming trends but all the lines of evidence of increased greenhouse warming. But could anyone point me in the direction of papers that quantify past climate change trends and how they compare to the current 0.16C per decade? | |
2011-06-13 12:24:19 | ||
Daniel Bailey Daniel Bailey yooper49855@hotmail... 97.83.150.37 |
Offhand, this is the only one I can think of, but it's for CO2: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110605132433.htm | |
2011-06-13 12:49:35 | ||
Rob Painting Rob paintingskeri@vodafone.co... 118.93.10.161 |
Almost have the PETM post ready. Probably finish it tonight. I did run across a paper that put the current warming into context over the Pleistocene, but bugger if I can find it (thought I saved a copy). Anyway there's this paper covering the Amazon: 48,000 Years of Climate and Forest Change in a Biodiversity Hot Spot - Bush 2004 - the rate of warming in the last 48,000 years is about 1°C per millenium, in that region. The is no evidence of more abrupt warming in the paleo-data. The average rate of warming in the Amazon, since the 1970's. has been .26°C per decade! . I realize the tropical forests are warming faster than the global average though. I reckon you have taken the best approach anyway. | |
2011-06-13 12:55:51 | ||
Rob Painting Rob paintingskeri@vodafone.co... 118.93.10.161 |
Oh, and there's this one too: Millennial-scale temperature variations in North America during the Holocene - Viau 2006 "A mean continental July temperature reconstruction based on pollen records from across North America quantifies temperature variations of several timescales for the past 14,000 cal yr BP. In North America, temperatures increased nearly 4C during the late glacial, reaching maximum values between 6000 and 3000 cal yr BP, after which mean July temperatures decreased. Superimposed on this orbital-scale trend are millennial-scale temperature variations that appear coherent in structure and frequency with highresolution ice, marine and other terrestrial paleoclimate records of the Holocene. During the Holocene, climate in North America appears to have varied periodically every 1100 years rather than the 1500 year cycle found during the last glacial period. Coherence at frequencies between 900 and 1100 years between land, ice, and ocean records suggests a common forcing associated with widespread surface impacts during the Holocene. These results provide important insight to the global warming debate, as the observed twentieth century temperature increase appears unprecedented compared to our mean North American temperature reconstruction of the past 14,000 years." | |
2011-06-13 14:53:08 | ||
Ari Jokimäki arijmaki@yahoo... 192.100.112.211 |
Papers on natural variability or perhaps papers on GHG role in historical climate changes? Other possibly relevant lists are found here under "paleoclimate". | |
2011-06-13 16:05:05 | Thanks, guys, just sent this response | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.9.229 |
I could wait for more responses but his email is burning a hole in my in-box and I wanted to clear it out. So I borrowed from your responses and sent this:
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2011-06-14 04:35:52 | comment | |
Robert Way robert_way19@hotmail... 134.153.162.53 |
Rob, |