2011-04-21 12:31:22Global warming to melt all ice in Arctic Ocean every summer: study
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Not encouraging news.

More here.

2011-04-21 12:53:53Ouch; some like it...not.
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

"Temperature estimates indicate temperatures on the order of 11–16 °C warmer than present."

Didn't Romm post on this?  Or was it SkS?

 

Full copy here:

http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/18383638/756302608/name/sdarticle.pdf

2011-04-21 13:00:15More here too :-)
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
124.187.72.92
http://skepticalscience.com/What-was-it-like-the-last-time-CO2-levels-were-this-high.html
2011-04-21 13:19:26
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Well. I am in fine form tonight....bloody hell. 

2011-04-21 13:22:45
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Nah, you're fine.  Couldn't find an open-source copy available last time; now I have one.

Just in time for the Arctic melt season to get fully underway...

2011-04-21 16:09:24Open source version
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
124.187.72.92
There was a link to a publicly available full PDF from my blog post :-)
2011-04-21 19:36:19
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
192.84.150.209

Back to the Arctic today, a study on glaciers melting in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Here's their fig. 2 (not sure if it's freely accessible).

2011-04-21 19:48:10Just got an email from Bert Wouters re the Canada paper
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
124.187.72.92
Will try to persuade him to write a guest post :-)
2011-04-21 19:54:31
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
192.84.150.209

would be great.

2011-04-22 00:37:10
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Cool, that paper is written by some folks from my old stomping ground.

2011-04-22 01:34:10
logicman

logicman_alf@yahoo.co...
86.148.172.104

Albatross: thanks for posting this, and thanks to Daniel for the link to the pdf.

 

I have been researching the Ellesmere ice shelf for an article.  I have data from about 1900 onwards showing the climate trend around Ellesmere to 2011.  This new paper makes an excellent conclusion to a whole series of papers which show how the Arctic has changed over the last 10,000 years.

 

My article will focus on the decline in the average age of Ellesmere's coastal sea ice over the last 100 years from ~5,000 yo to ~5 yo.  Global warming? It ain't happening!  The ice is recovering nicely.  And pigs have wings.

2011-04-26 14:32:47No go on Bert Wouters
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
124.187.72.92

He's restricted in what he writes for blogs so no go on him writing an SkS blog post. But he said he'd be happy to look at an SkS blog post and offer feedback. If anyone would like to write a blog post about this paper, feel free to email Bert at bert.wouters@knmi.nl (probably best to let him know I suggested you contact him) to show him your blog post before you publish it. Be sure to set the blog status to Embargoed so outside parties can view it.

2011-04-29 06:20:24Arctic ice level
PeteM
Pete Murphy
pete_murphy65c@btinternet...
86.135.173.192

 

I regularly look at the following link  http://nsidc.org/artcicseaicenews  -  any comment about the first graph  showing ice which were below  previous low for most of  2010/2011 winter are now  above ths level ?

 

 

2011-04-29 06:32:37
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Mostly weather effects.  When the ice is thin, like now, weather can mean the difference between ice piling up & slabbing (which promotes thickening & longer survival into the melt season) and ice dispersing over wider areas (which accelerates the melt season by providing more undersurface area for bottom melt, which accounts for between 40-60% of all sea ice melt).

A higher-than normal extent at this point of the melt season bodes ill for the ice later in the season.  The community over at Neven's is tracking a huge daily loss at the moment:

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/04/sie-2011-update-4-slow-but-steady.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01538e2e44c1970b#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01538e2e44c1970b

2011-05-05 05:25:54
PeteM
Pete Murphy
pete_murphy65c@btinternet...
86.161.87.131

Dan - Thanks .    I checked again today . looks like the trend is back to a low level again .