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2011-04-08 16:49:07 | New warning on Arctic ice melt. Is Richard Black Wrong? | |
perseus owlsmoor@googlemail... 78.143.202.218 |
The researchers are now working with a new computer model for Arctic ice. Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer ice will probably be gone within this decade.
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2011-04-08 16:56:05 | Blackie's smoking 'em while he gots 'em | |
Daniel Bailey Daniel Bailey yooper49855@hotmail... 97.83.150.37 |
But that was summer minimum. | |
2011-04-08 16:58:37 | ||
perseus owlsmoor@googlemail... 78.143.202.218 |
Thanks Daniel, I just found it at the same time as you posted. Still 2016+/- 3 years is not quite the same as 'by 2013' and it is still unclear what he means Here is an interview. where he doesn't deny the 2013, however perhaps it gets distorted due to the language barrier. | |
2011-04-08 17:07:33 | ||
Daniel Bailey Daniel Bailey yooper49855@hotmail... 97.83.150.37 |
Maslowski made his projection several years ago; in light of recent developments in the Arctic, he may have been too conservative. I make it 1 chance in 3 the pole loses it's cover at some point this year, 2 chances in 3 by next summer. If we get a strong Arctic DiPole either summer, it's a lock. | |
2011-04-08 17:15:54 | ||
Daniel Bailey Daniel Bailey yooper49855@hotmail... 97.83.150.37 |
More Maslowski: | |
2011-04-09 01:43:55 | ||
logicman logicman_alf@yahoo.co... 86.145.234.252 |
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss. "Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. "So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."
Professor Peter Wadhams, Cambridge University, UK: - "Wieslaw's model is more efficient because it works with data and it takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice." "The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse.
Source: http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2009/12/gore-did-not-lie-about-wieslaw.html Related: http://www.sustain.hokudai.ac.jp/2008/11/speech_when_will_summer_arctic_1.php | |
2011-04-09 12:58:44 | Ice-free Arctic | |
James Wight jameswight@southernphone.com... 121.79.18.8 |
For months I’ve been planning a post on this topic but I’m not sure if it’s suitable for SkS. Extrapolating from volume data (which I had to guesstimate from PIOMAS graphs), Arctic summer sea ice will be gone in less than twenty years – five if you use a quadratic which is a better fit. A repeat of 2007 could wipe out all the ice in one summer. | |
2011-04-09 19:31:56 | ||
MarkR Mark Richardson m.t.richardson2@gmail... 134.225.187.197 |
Doesn't seem too bad from the BBC, he uses the word 'could', which seems pretty accurate.
I spoke to some Arctic hydrologist and ice people and they seem pretty confident that just applying a fit isn't really that useful and will very likely be inaccurate. They're thinking more on decadal timescales: weather patterns have really helped with the Arctic ice loss (e.g. winds pushing ice through the Denmark straits) and unless that's self reinforcing it might swing back the other way like it has in the past and preserve the ice a bit longer.
Given another 2007 though, who knows what'll happen? Could collapse within the decade.
We're going to get ice free summers anyway, might be good if we get them when people still have time to do something! | |
2011-04-14 10:23:04 | ||
oslo borchinfolab@gmail... 90.149.33.182 |
Somewhat related - march anomalies map from GISS available. See some red areas in the Arctic? Doesn't look good at all. |