2011-04-01 02:56:31Does Muller drive the last nail into the UHI coffin?
Rob Honeycutt

robhon@mac...
98.207.62.223

Muller's written testimony seems to do just that.

This is the group that Anthony Watts was trusting to give "his data" a fair shake.  That fair shake seems to be in the form of a large hammer driving one last nail into the coffin of the UHI effect.

2011-04-01 03:01:22
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
84.151.31.101

As expected.

Also note the praise lavished on Watts and McIntyre (either in the testimony or in the BEST FAQ update): the hook is set.

2011-04-01 03:03:08desperate Watts
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Watts tried to submit a "clarification" to Muller's testimony.  It sounds like the committee is not going to accept it.

2011-04-01 03:10:09
Rob Honeycutt

robhon@mac...
98.207.62.223

Just read Watts' response and the comments.  I just have to laugh a sad kind of laugh.

I guess they will not go gentle into their good night.  ...In spite of Watts' claims that he would be willing to accept their findings.

2011-04-01 03:12:00
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Expect Climate-ARPA to be used to funnel more funding to Watts & McIntyre.

 

If anyone wants it, here's Muller's BEST graph:

BEST

2011-04-01 03:15:55
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
84.151.31.101

Yeah, they've just realized the hook is in.

We'll have to see if Watts eventually accepts the final results (which have not  yet been calculated). If not, we try to get Watts to explain what is missing, if Muller took his insights on-board, etc.

Romm seems to be attacking all sides, as expected: counter-productively.

2011-04-01 03:17:31
Rob Honeycutt

robhon@mac...
98.207.62.223

According to Watts' cheering section Muller was a "dyed in the wool warmist all along."

There seems to be a very simple point the Watts crowd misses.  It's not the temperature.  It's the trend.

2011-04-01 03:18:49
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
84.151.31.101

Daniel,

Yes, if Climate-ARPA funds Watts and McIntyre, that would actually be a good thing.

Then they would have to meet scientific standards to continue to receive the funding. They would be getting paid to dig their own graves. That's fair enough, in my book.

2011-04-01 06:29:20
perseus

owlsmoor@googlemail...
78.143.222.37

Good send up at Denial Depot on the BEST study!

2011-04-01 19:31:31Reviewing the reception at WUWT
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.123.131

It looks like a crash & burn.

It looks like it was a mistake to testify to Congress on the basis of preliminary data: It let's the cat out of the bag, and gives the WUWTers an excuse to back out.

Steve Mosher is still holding out hope that the final analysis will be "better", but Watts has gone cold, and Willis is hostile. Most of the crowd seems to be getting on Willis' bandwagon.

So they've blown the public relations (PR) aspect. Maybe they can do a bang-up job of creating an easy-to-use tool for slicing & dicing temperature-trend studies, so people can explore the results of assumptions rather than getting too focused on programming; I thought that was more the intent of the project. 

So the BEST could still produce some valuable tools, but it doesn't look like it will create a consensus among all interested parties. Maybe it will create some dissension among the WUWTers, as people play with it.

2011-04-02 02:42:42
Rob Honeycutt

robhon@mac...
98.207.62.223

I'm not sure they could have done any better with this, though.  They know what the answer is going to be even looking at 2% of the data.  They know how much effect Watts' data is going to have on the end result.  If they'd been more open Watts wouldn't be happy.  If they had the full report done Watts wouldn't have been happy.  

Watts is in a position where he is just never going to be satisfied.  Muller's not naive, he knows this.  My sense is that Muller actually thought that Anthony may have been onto something and that a combination of better station coverage and the UHI effect might produce appreciably different results.  Now he knows otherwise.

It's sort of a Vegas wedding, Muller and Watts.  They thought it seemed like a good idea on the spur of the moment but the reality of the union has come crashing down upon their heads and they both want out.  Now they're going through the phase of a very messy divorce.

2011-04-02 03:05:29
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.123.131

Watts was never going to be happy, but the testimony based on preliminary analysis was a false step: It gave Watts the justification that "Hey, I thought you were going to publish this when everything was clean; but you're jumping the gun." Whereas before, he would have had to back out based on methodology, now he can back out based on bad procedural practice. Much easier.

This seems to be part of the downside of being an ambitious scientist: as pointed out before, Muller wants to make a splash. Sometimes, it's better to be patient.

2011-04-02 03:09:27marginalized
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Even if Watts flip-flops on his statement that he'll accept the BEST results, it doesn't really matter.  He's marginalized now.  In the end the BEST data and methods will be available, so they can't claim it's not transparent anymore.  If they don't like the results (which of course they won't), they'll be free to tinker with it themselves.  Problem is you can't change reality.

I think Rob is onto something.  I suspect Muller told Watts that he thought his criticisms were valid and might very well change the results.  So Watts gave Muller the surface station data, but of course it turns out not to make a difference.  Now Watts has no way to save face anymore.  He built his reputation on the surface station photos and UHI claims, and as most of us knew all along, they just don't matter.

Even if Watts and his followers remain in denial, the results will marginalize him.  I think few people will be able to take him seriously, and he'll probably go the way of Monckton.

2011-04-02 03:40:25
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.123.131

I think Watts et al. are likely to try to tough it through this, claiming that everything Muller has done is possibly tainted.

One interesting issue: When and where the Watts & Pielke paper gets published. If they can't get their contrarian results published in a reputable journal, that may sink them. It would be worthwhile to open up the peer review procedures for this case: I suspect it would be illuminating.

2011-04-02 04:07:20
Rob Honeycutt

robhon@mac...
98.207.62.223

This does have the effect of removing a number of the WUWT arguments.  They can't claim that the data is tainted because it's done by the government and the "NWO." (A source of repeated facepalming.)  They can't claim that the source of the funding influenced the outcome because Koch put up money too.  They can't claim that this is just coming from another warmist based on Muller's numerous prior statements.

Ultimately Watts and Co don't matter.  They just happen to occupy the blogosphere bubble that we at SkS are in.  What matters is what happens with legislation on carbon.  If nothing more, I hope this nudges things in the right direction.

2011-04-02 04:22:24
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
192.84.150.209

In the abstract that Watt posted it is clearly stated that siting doesn't matter as far as the average temperature is concerned, only DTR is affected. So what's all this noise for?

2011-04-02 08:44:48DTR and temp
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
124.185.238.238
Perhaps Watts and co crunched the numbers, realized with horror that there was no microsite influence on temp trends so had to scratch around for any other possible result - DTR was all they could come up with so they at least had something to talk about (and to distract from the obvious flip flop on the whole premise of surface stations).
2011-04-02 09:01:36
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.123.131

Rob,

At the Federal level, legislation on carbon is dead in the water, unless & until the Democrats get back control of the Congress. The WUWTers provide "intellectual" support for the Republican refusal: sand for the ostrich, as it were.

 

2011-04-02 09:28:45Marc Morano's email to Muller after the hearing...
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
124.185.238.238
From: "Marc Morano-ClimateDepot.com" <morano@climatedepot.com>
Date: April 1, 2011 11:42:07 AM EDT
Subject: Caught in Web of Lies?! Warmist Kerry Emanuel's Testimony to Congress Called 'Untrue' & Riddled with Climategate 'Disinformation' -- Will He Recant?


For latest on Kerry Emanuel's woes and Richard Muller's emerging temperature con -- go to www.ClimateDepot.com -- Emanuel and Muller are both coped on this email.

Caught in Web of Lies?! Warmist Kerry Emanuel's Testimony to Congress Called 'Untrue' & Riddled with Climategate 'Disinformation' -- Will He Recant? 

  

Ross McKitrick Exposes Kerry Emanuel: 'Emanuel's statement is provably false...His claim is completely contradicted by the factual record' -- 'And to think Emanuel boasts about being an expert on Climategate because he was one of Oxburgh's paint crew'

Warmist Kerry Emanuel Thinks Public is Stupid -- Touts His involvement in Laughable Climategate 'Leaflet' Report that 'cleared' his fellow warmists -- -- Steve McIntyre Rips Emanuel: 'The Oxburgh 'report' was an insult to the public. Emanuel shares the blame for that'

Flashback: MIT's Lindzen Reveals Kerry Emanuel's Ethics: 'Emanuel received relatively little recognition until he suggested that hurricanes might become stronger in a warmer world'

 

Flashback: MIT's Lindzen slaps down Kerry Emanuel's climate claims: 'To claim that the little we've seen is larger than any change we 'have been able to discern' for a thousand years is disingenuous'
 
Kerry Emanuel's Shameless Sham: Oxburgh Tricks the Committee: 45 Hours in Norwich to produce Climategate leaflet -- 'all five of pages of it - appeared 'rushed and superficial'

 

Read More About Kerry Emanuel's Proud Achievement With The Climategate Oxburgh report here.


Marc Morano
ClimateDepot.com
CFACT
1875 Eye Street, NW
Fifth Floor
Washington, D.C. 20006
202-536-5052
Morano@ClimateDepot.com

2011-04-02 09:33:31meh
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

meh, Morano is pond scum.  I clicked the link to McKitrick claiming Emanuel made "provably false" statement.  McKitrick's argument was borderline retarded.

2011-04-02 10:19:43
Rob Honeycutt

robhon@mac...
98.207.62.223

Neal,

Absolutely.  I've said since the mid-terms, nobody's gonna get nuthin' done this two years.  My optimistic sense says Obama is going to get reelected in a landslide and pull a lot of new dems in on his coat tails.  That's where all this will start to pay off.

2011-04-02 10:47:21
Rob Honeycutt

robhon@mac...
98.207.62.223

And on that note, <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9MAUL601.htm">this article</a> comes out showing that the unemployment rate has dropped to 8.8%.

If we can keep this trend going for the next 18 months Obama should be a shoe-in and then, hopefully, we can get some traction on carbon legislation.

Eighteen months is a long time, though.

2011-04-02 10:51:34
Rob Honeycutt

robhon@mac...
98.207.62.223

Dana...  What Morano knows is that most of his readers won't even click the link, and even if they do they won't understand what they're reading.  He just has to say sh*t.  That's his job title.  "The guy that says nasty sh*t regardless of the truth."

2011-04-02 13:15:19
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Well, instead of engaging in baseless slander like Moran and McKitrick, how about SkS publicly exposes the multitude of misinformation, deception and outright lies that were perpetuated by Christy. Montgomery, Armstrong and the GOP senators?  

These "people" (i.e., McKitrick et al.) make almost make me sick to the stomach.

It used to be M&M, I have suggested 3M (McIntyre, McKitrick and Morano).....really M&M are in bed with despicable likes of Inhofe. Again, sickening.

2011-04-02 13:18:39
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

The fact that Emanuel and Muller were cc'd on this email amounts to intimidation and harassment by Morano. 

2011-04-02 13:37:54
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.123.131

Add Monckton and you get "4M"; also avoiding trademark problems!

2011-04-03 01:06:515M
James Wight

jameswight@southernphone.com...
112.213.158.190

Patrick Michaels.

2011-04-03 03:56:28
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Good calls. Jeez, 5M :)