2011-03-14 13:00:18BPL Comment at Tamino's
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Barton Paul Levenson

Tamino and anyone else competent,

The main reason my drought paper was turned down was that the 1870-2005 data I used wasn’t reliable; not enough area covered in the early part. Dr. Dai at NCAR told me the data was only reliable globally from 1948 on.

That’s still N = 58. I reran my analysis. Did a lot of statistics. Data-mining. Autoregressions to find appropriate lags by corrected AIC. ADF tests for integration. Engle-Granger tests for cointegration. Granger causality tests. I ran a Monte Carlo simulation 10,000 times. F is a function of past F, temperature anomaly, Dust Veil Index. R^2 = 88%.

I sincerely hope that somewhere along the line, I made a big, BIG mistake.

My latest results are that the fraction of Earth’s land surface in severe drought will hit 70%, the limit at which I guess human agriculture will collapse, and human civilization with it, sometime between the years 2022 and 2027.

That’s 11-16 years from now.

If I’m right, we’re out of time.

I don’t know what the hell to do. If I called the White House and asked to speak to the president, no way on God’s green Earth would I be connected. At best some sympathetic flunky would pass the time with me. At worst the Secret Service would investigate me as a possible dangerous nutcase.

Please, can somebody competent look over my work? Please tell me I screwed up badly somewhere along the line. Find the mistake. Please.

[Response: Send your latest to me, and to anyone else who shows interest.

And don't despair, when we need you most. When it seems the times call for a miracle -- believe in our power to forge one.]

2011-03-14 14:18:28BPL's drought results
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
124.187.101.78

I first saw BPL's drought result on his blog a few months back and it rocked me. I thought about contacting him, asking him to repost it on SkS, but then saw he was looking to get it published in peer review. So after this latest comment, I wonder if it's worth contacting him about doing a guest post on SkS. Or inviting him to post his work on the forum first for anyone interested to peruse. Anyone got his email?

2011-03-14 14:36:54email
Robert Way

robert_way19@hotmail...
142.162.8.171

Hey John,
if things check out email him at the following : levenson1960@gmail.com

You should consider this before someone else snag's him. Just call it preliminary work and we'll see how it goes. Could be great for drawing some attention.

2011-03-14 15:01:53
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Robert has his email address right.  BPL was one of my Facebook friends when I was still active on that (FB took the hit to make more time for SkS).  He even sent me a copy of a book he's seeking a publisher for:  The Case for Global Warming.

If you think it might make a difference, I can contact him.

On the heels of the Dai After Tomorrow post, would make for a good follow-up.

2011-03-14 15:03:58
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

This is not the first time BPL has shared with Tamino.  After an earlier draft, Tamino put himself on record about BPL's paper & hypothesis here:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/11/03/how-likely/#comment-45454

2011-03-14 15:11:07
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.215.166

Like Ernst K suggests it may be a purely statistical analysis unbounded by the physical processes involved. I don't see where BPL gets the 70% figure and global collapse though. 

The thing I don't look forward to (assuming the bad scenarios unfold) is the human reaction. Many people are irrational at the best of times.

I'd be interested to see BPL's rationale though. Certainly.

2011-03-14 15:22:10
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

BPL shared some of the inner workings of his paper at RC, here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/11/science-narrative-and-heresy/comment-page-7/#comment-190760

2011-03-14 15:31:38
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.215.166

Cheers Yooper, I got turned off the subject at the time when "Did" & BPL got into an argument.

2011-03-14 15:58:24
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Yeah, Didactylos really has a stick up his ass about BPL.  But, BPL does have a temper & might've said something at some point to have earned a grudge (I remember the time when BPL challenged some troll coming over from WTFUWT to an actual duel, with pistoles). 

Ray Ladbury thinks highly of BPL, as do some of the other regulars there.  BPL's climatology pages on his website, such as his 30-Years piece, get referenced fairly often as being definitive.

2011-03-15 01:52:07Update
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Update: 

BPL's revising his paper; situation not quite as dire.  Interested in possible blog post here on it after revisions made.

2011-03-15 09:58:17Update from BPL
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

"I’ve fixed the problem. Civilization doesn’t fall until 2057, so we can all relax. :) "

 

Funny guy, that BPL.