2011-03-05 12:42:14Potential Smackdown Alert!!!:
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey

SkS "sqeptic" JohnD posts over at Tamino's Open Mind on the Mathturbation thread:


"The problem with trying to find genuine periodicity in those “mysterious cycles” is twofold.
Firstly they seem to be looked upon by the pro-AGW commentaters as if they are expected to explain where the heat energy is coming from, rather then as a means of identifying where it is being transported to.
By that I mean from the oceans and land surfaces where solar energy is initially absorbed, through the atmosphere from where it can be eventually lost back to space or deposited elsewhere.

Secondly, and most importantly they are analysed as if they act in isolation to all other forces.
The assumption seems to be that any oscillation must be witnessed as being regular otherwise there is no cycle. The expectation seems to be that for such a cycle to exist it must manifest itself similar to the regularity of the day/night cycle, or the annual seasonal cycle, in order for it to be explainable by simple physics.

Unfortunately, not everything is so simple, how the various forces manifest themselves in combination becomes very complex, more so than apparently what one analyst alone can get his mind around, even more so than what the entire scientific population combined can comprehend, at least at this stage.

Taking the viewpoint from Australia which is a relatively simple situation, it is subject to forces generated in different oceans which have there own identified ocean atmosphere systems and ocean currents, and it is only now that some small understanding is being reached about how the two seemingly major influences interact with each other and so influence the Australian climate.

Each ocean is both independent in that the systems oscillate separately, but as with all such systems, at times offset, and other times reinforce what is happening in the adjacent regions.
The nett observed result may look chaotic, but the apparent chaos has more to do with the limitations of understanding amongst those looking for perfect order than any real chaotic behavior of the forces involved.

All could explained by known physics if not for the aforementioned limitations, the finite capacity of the human mind.
The power of the human mind is similar to the power of an electrical system, for a given capacity, if the pressure increases, the volume will drop.
In the human mind, as the depth of understanding increases, the breadth decreases. It is very true that ultimately, some people do exhibit that they have reached the point of knowing everything about very little.

Given the extreme complexity of the earths climate, it may be that the greatest understanding lies with those whose broader perspective leaves them knowing a little bit about everything.
At least they may be better able to understand how the many systems interact rather than trying to find perfection in genuine periodicity in one of those “mysterious cycles”."

2011-03-05 12:59:231st blood
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey

Didactylos weighs in:



Followed by the estimable Ray Ladbury