2011-02-16 09:22:12A Rebuttal to: "Sea level may drop in 2010"?
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.68.19

Is anyone working on a rebuttal to this article? (Note: I've posted only the first pagraph of it.)

Sea level may drop in 2010

Guest post by John Kehr

Based on the most current data it appears that 2010 is going to show the largest drop in global sea level ever recorded in the modern era.  Since many followers of global warming believe that the rate of sea level rise is increasing, a significant drop in the global sea level highlights serious flaws in the IPCC projections.  The oceans are truly the best indicator of climate.  The oceans drive the world’s weather patterns.  A drop in the ocean levels in a year that is being cited as proof that the global warming has arrived shows that there is still much to learned.  If the ocean levels dropped in 2010, then there is something very wrong with the IPCC projections.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/17/sea-level-may-drop-in-2010/

2011-02-16 09:54:46
Rob Honeycutt

robhon@mac...
98.207.62.223
It looks like Kehr has found himself a comfy home at WUWT.
2011-02-16 11:13:35not worth it
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.107.233
I read this article on Kerr's site a few weeks/months back (assuming it hasn't changed for WUWT).  The whole thing is based on 7 months worth of data.  Totally pointless cherrypicking - I don't think it's even worth a rebuttal.
2011-02-16 17:13:43
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.247.191
Err, let me guess focus on the La Nina months?. Can't be bothered reading it.
2011-02-16 18:51:07
Paul D

chillcast@googlemail...
82.18.130.183
The sea rises and falls every day.

What's in a year?

It's a bit like watching paint dry. Eventually you know it will dry, but you aren't bothered checking it every minute.
Bothering about the yearly change is a political act. The only reason for pointing it out would be to influence short term opinion and delay carbon emission cuts.
2011-02-16 19:47:08
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
134.225.187.80

La Nina.

 

Positive cloud feedbacks enhance the dumping of heat into space, leading to a net loss of heat iirc. Though I really should check the flux measurements about this...

2011-02-17 05:42:09
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

"Sea level may drop in 2010"

Yes it will, there is a distinct seasonal cycle :)

Either way, their assertion is patently false, and we only have GSL data until October 2010.  And yes there was a La Nina on the go.  There are so many problems witht that inane post. 

The current La Nina is showing rapid signs of weakening by the way.

 

 

2011-02-17 06:15:59
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.224.57

Alby,

La Nina weakening is good news down my way. It's been very warm for the last 4 months!. 30 degrees C and 85% humidity is not fun. And that cyclone Wilma caused a lot of flooding where I live. The Aussies will no doubt be glad to see the back of it too - although for them that means a likely return to drought conditions.

2011-02-17 06:35:04La Nina
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252

The deniers won't be happy about La Nina weakening.  The deniers over at the NoTricksZone blog (who banned me from their site, by the way) who Rob H. and I bet with on warming vs. cooling over the next decade, have been celebrating the cool first month of the bet and claiming that somebody (I forget who, Spencer maybe?) was predicting that the La Nina cycle would be abnormally long and last into next year.

Celebrating one cool month and making an immediately incorrect claim about La Nina - that's deniers for you.

Then the guy who runs the blog (Pierre) let his denier buddies insult me and Rob (called us trolls, bots, suggested we're Nazis, etc.).  When we complained, he censored our comments.  When I complained about the censorship, he banned me (temporarily, but I'm not going back).  Another reminder of what a pathetic group we're dealing with.

2011-02-17 07:26:07
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Hi Dana and Rob,

Sorry to hear about the unpleasant affects of the La Nina-- where I live it has meant near record snow and  below average temperatures.  Could make for a good summer thunderstorm season though ;)  There will be lingering affects from the La Nina which actually seems to have peaked late last November, but the global SATs lag the MEI/ONI/SOI by about 5 months.

 

 

Not sure how this will play out, I said "weakening", some guidance (CFS) is suggesting the La Nina may develop again in the fall.  The GMAO guidance is suggesting an El Nino developing later in the summer.  ECMWF is suggesting near-neutral conditions by summer.  IRI has a nice summary, very few of the products are suggesting another La Nina-- IRI's next update is Thursday 17 February 2011-- in my experience their forecasts are quite reliable, more so than those of CFS. 

If we return to another El Nino, or even neutral conditions, before the end of the year, then all bets are off--2012 could be, shall we say, interesting. 

They banned you Dana?  You of all people.  Wow.