2011-02-01 21:32:13Cyclone Yasi
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.205.111
Yikes!, that is one huge mutha of a cyclone. Here's hoping people do the right thing and get the heck out of the way. The huge swells associated with it, might devastate parts of the Great Barrier Reef.
2011-02-02 04:09:58
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Rob,

I'm afraid that it now has a very well-defined eye.  Ugh. The JTWC is calling for gusts near 295 km/hr at land fall.

BOM calling for cat 4 at landfall.  The one saving grace is that strong cyclones like this sometimes undergo wall-replacement cycles which results in a temporary weakening...so if they are lucky it might start a replacement cycle just before landfall.

 

2011-02-02 04:11:21
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206
Oh, that JWTC warming is estimating sig. wave heights of almost 40 ft right now.and that is likely to increase.
2011-02-02 05:26:12Post about Yasi on Climate Progress.....
BaerbelW

baerbel-for-350@email...
93.231.168.248

....as a repost from Jeff Master:

http://climateprogress.org/2011/02/01/masters-tropical-cyclone-yasi-flooded-queensland-australia/

2011-02-02 13:46:29
Stephen Leahy

writersteve@gmail...
208.74.213.18
In this blog post I suggest that Australia now needs a permanent climate change disaster tax.   
2011-02-02 16:33:00Looking nasty
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
123.211.149.21

Last I heard, Cat 5 when it hits land which will be at high tide, worsening flooding which are expected to be 1 to 2 metres:

Some incredible imagery at these links:

huge color loop  

water vapor

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/mosaic/movies/mosswvbbmjava.html

2011-02-02 16:35:54Good post, Steve
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
123.211.149.21

The Greens party here in Oz were suggesting a permanent fund for extreme weather disasters before this was on the radar.

Just tweeted your article.

2011-02-02 17:06:14
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

John,

Storm surges are an imperfect science, but typically for a cat 5 storm you are looking at a surge of about 5 plus metres, and add that to a high tide and there is going to be incredible damage from the surge alone.  Now add wind gusts approaching 300 km/hr in the eye-wall.

I'm afraid to say that the areas taking a direct hit will probably be flattened.  Cat 5 gusts will be equivalent to wind speeds found in an F3 tornado, but on a much, much larger scale.

I hope people in and near Innisfail evacuated.

2011-02-02 17:46:28
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.214.82

Alby, I holidayed in Niue back in the 90's. It was hit by a cat 5 cyclone (Heta) in 2004. The Niue Hotel where we stayed is up a 25-30 meter cliff and set back about 30-50 meters from the cliff edge (from memory). It was obliterated by the storm surge. It must have been absolutely terrifying that storm. I still find it hard to believe that waves that big could occur.

If Yasi behaves as predicted, it's going to seem like the end of the world for those caught in its path. 

2011-02-02 18:15:46
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.214.82

A webcam situated in Townsville: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/caillins13

Some people are still driving around. Hmmmmm........ 

2011-02-03 01:22:27
Paul D

chillcast@googlemail...
82.18.130.183
I think if it weren't for the events in Egypt, the cyclone would be the top story here in the UK.
2011-02-03 02:25:17
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
192.171.166.144

Good luck to everyone there :(

 

I seriously hope no-one ignored the warnings because its path was 'just based on a computer model'. Some people who genuinely believe denialist propaganda (perhaps some of the attendees to Monckton's stand-up =science shows) might wash up as corpses.