2011-01-25 08:10:32The economics of global warming
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
93.147.82.75

A must read piece by Thomas Schelling. It's short, but in case you have no time to read it I'd like you to read at least this:

 

Estimates of lost world product due to climate change are moderate because the poor have so little to lose. More than a billion people, maybe 2 billion, are estimated to live on less than the equivalent of $2 per day. If a billion of those poorest people lost half their income, it would be an overwhelming tragedy, a true catastrophe, worse than all the earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, landslides, and fires of the past decade happening every year. But those billion people together would lose only $365 billion per year. That is less than 1 percent of world income! They have so little to begin with that what they can lose doesn’t amount to much of a statistic. But they can lose tragically.

and his unbearably sad conclusion:

Climate change will be primarily a threat to the poor in poor countries. Understanding this may make it hard to persuade the non-poor in the developed world to take the problem seriously.

Maybe I shouldn’t be explaining this.

2011-01-25 09:09:59good point
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252
Good point.  I made a similar point in my debunking of Monckton's Myth #24 (which will be our MM #11, I think).  When looking purely at economics, you're not accounting for the true loss associated with human death or species extinctions.  I'll probably add a reference to this piece.
2011-01-25 10:59:30Riccardo & Dana
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.68.19
You have identified the essence of what the international Environmental Justice movement is all about. 
2011-01-25 12:33:19Grievous
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
74.87.123.162

Sadly, we've now identified most of the first 2 billion to go if Hansen and Lovelock are unfortunately proven right.

 

My family and I have just had the pleasure of hosting a student from El Salvador for the past week.  Students with the most aptitude for leadership and intelligence are selected from among the Central America's poorest and are brought into a youth leadership program.  As part of this program, they are not only provided with a free education, but get to attend a 3-week series of leadership programs here in the United States.  About 30 children 16-18 years of age left 80 degree warmth and have just spent the last week in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where the high for their stay was 10 degrees.

 

These children are among the poorest people in Central America.  Many come from villages with no electricity or running water (so no indoor toilets).  Some own only the clothes they were wearing when they  were brought into the program.  Despite the cold, they enjoyed their stay immensely (well-adjusted children to the last).  They were such a joy to spend time with.

 

When all a family has is each other and perhaps a roof over their heads, what are they to do when climate change takes even that away?  When all they have left to take from them is life itself, will the outside world even notice when that happens?  When the equivalent of Darfur is happening globally, will the world finally take notice?

 


 

Climate Disruption came first for the poor, and the wealthy did not speak out --
Because the wealthy are not poor.

 

Then Climate Disruption came for the smaller nations, and the largest did not speak out --
Because they were not small.

 

Finally Climate Disruption came for the largest nations, and no one spoke out --
Because no one was left to speak.


Apologies to the memory of Martin Niemöller.

2011-01-25 13:42:17Climate impact on the poor
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
60.231.100.70
The skeptic argument "Climate action will hurt the poor" is something we really need to address, adopting the line of thought in Schelling's article. It burns me when skeptics like Monckton and Lomborg moan about the poor - essentially saying we rich should be able to continue to live as we please because CO2 cuts will hurt the poor. Disgusting hypocrisy.
2011-01-25 15:10:30good point
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.210

That would really make for a good rebuttal.  Michael Crichton used to make the same argument too.  In the debate which involved him and Lindzen and Schmidt, Crichton spent basically his entire turn talking about how we should spend our money alleviating poverty instead.  Same argument as Lomborg.

There must be some peer-reviewed literature showing that third world countries will be hit the hardest.  The IPCC report might have something along those lines too.

2011-01-25 15:45:49Climate Change Project of the Platform for Agribiodiversity Research
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.68.19

You all should check out the Climate Change Project of the Platform for Agribiodiversity Research. Lot's of good stuff related to the issue how climate change impacts indingenous people and what mitigation and adaptation actions may be appropriate. 

http://agrobiodiversityplatform.org/

2011-01-25 16:49:40Links on the impacts on the poor
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
60.231.100.70

I have a few links here:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/resources.php?a=links&arg=37

2011-01-27 03:24:43How Will Climate Change Impact Our Risk of Malaria?
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.68.19

How Will Climate Change Impact Our Risk of Malaria?

Millersville Professor Takes on Vector-Borne Disease Project

MILLERSVILLE, Pa., Jan. 19, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Thanks to a $250,000 National Science Foundation (NSF) grant we may soon know how climate change will impact our risk of malaria and dengue fever. Dr. Kathleen Schreiber, professor of geography at Millersville University of Pennsylvania, received the grant from the NSF sponsored Vector-Borne Disease Project to measure how environmental temperature change influences the transmission and disease risk of the two diseases.

There are two climate models used in the project: the downscaling model which produces the localized temperature projections and the epidemiological model. Schreiber says that when the two are mixed together, researchers can predict the risk of infection in the future.

“Temperature affects the biting rate of mosquitoes and the incubation of parasites,” said Schreiber. “With a higher temperature, for example, malaria incubation in the mosquito does not take as long. Therefore, the mosquito is more likely to become infected before dying and transmit the disease to others.”

The project will generate information that explains the influence of climatic factors on the distribution and dynamics of malaria and dengue, the two most significant vector-borne diseases globally. That information can then be used to let people know of the links between climate and disease and develop practices for prevention, control and adaptation. The focus on these two diseases will provide insights to others such as West Nile and Eastern Equine Encephalitis.

Schreiber’s grant for $250,000 is part of a larger $1.9 million NSF grant to Penn State University. She is collaborating with Penn State researchers to evaluate the effect of realistic temperature variation on processes that determine disease transmission intensity, both now and under climate change projections. Schreiber’s research focuses on improvement of downscaling technologies to improve the accuracy of future temperature estimates at the regional-to-local levels for climate impacts analysis.

Downscaling is a procedure to take global-scale temperature projections and modify it to more accurately give a temperature value for a particular place. The temperature results are combined with land-use change and biological data to develop models that capture the effects of environmental temperature on disease dynamics over time.

At Millersville Schreiber teaches a variety of environmental courses that include climate concepts. “Climate and Society” investigates climate impacts on human health, agriculture and the built environment. “I am making students in my classes aware of the project and all that it entails,” said Schreiber.

SOURCE

Millersville University

RELATED LINKS

http://www.millersville.edu

2011-01-28 10:41:06Harvard Medical School: Center for Health and the Global Environment
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.68.19

 

http://chge.med.harvard.edu/programs/ccf/index.html