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2010-12-03 09:08:08 | Great climate metaphors | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 124.185.20.155 |
UPDATE! There is now a website specially for collecting climate metaphors: So rather than hide our light under a bushel, if you come across a great metaphor, I suggest you go post it there so climate communicators everywhere can benefit from it! I'm starting a thread to collect great climate metaphors I've encountered in my travels - useful when you're talking to somebody and need to express the science in a short, pithy line that the average person can relate to. For starters, illustrating the difference between weather and climate: "Weather is like CNN and climate is like the History Channel" | |
2010-12-03 09:09:07 | Another good one from Scott Mandia about short-term trends | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 124.185.20.155 |
If I measure the height of my six year old at the end of every year he is definitely exhibiting a growing trend. If I measure him at the end of every day for one week I might see no trend at all. I certainly cannot tell the world that my son has stopped growing! | |
2010-12-03 10:59:06 | ||
Andy S skucea@telus... 66.183.176.192 |
Two favourite metaphors are: a) The waves on a beach versus an incoming tide model, which works nicely as weather/climate analogy. It captures the cyclic nature of both. Waves are unpredictable from minute-to-minute yet reliable tide tables can be made for years in advance. b) The old chestnut that says just because forest fires were caused naturally in the past doesn't mean that they can't be started by arsonists today. It's a little trite but I have used it effectively once or twice with those people who get confused with this. A good metaphor is needed for the consilient nature of climate (and other) science. Neither brickwalls nor multi-stranded ropes quite do the trick of illustrating this simply and effectively. | |
2010-12-03 19:33:05 | ||
Glenn Tamblyn glenn@thefoodgallery.com... 121.219.27.63 |
One I have thought of for the 'CO2 is a trace gas' argument So adding sugar to your cup of coffee won't change the taste because it is mainly water? | |
2010-12-03 19:57:02 | Loaded dice analogy | |
BaerbelW baerbel-for-350@email... 93.231.132.182 |
I like the "loaded dice" analogy which Jim Hansen (and others) have been using to illustrate the changes in the likelihood for e.g. warm seasons: For the 80's a dice with two red (warm), two blue (cold) and two white ("average") sides is used to show that the likelihood for a warm, a cold or an average season was pretty much even. For today, the dice has four red sides and only one each in blue and white. This is just a bit more (67%) likelihood than we already have (60%). The neat thing about this analogy is, that it can be used live during a talk about climate change to demonstrate what various graphics/charts imply via their bars or lines. In fact, I used this recently and it worked pretty well to drive the point home (I had two large dice made of foam, where one had been repainted ("loaded") accordingly). Cheers | |
2010-12-06 21:14:53 | Classic from Richard Alley | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 124.179.115.67 |
In the first 60 seconds, Richard Alley explains Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Republican senator. Absolutely classic! Alley has always been a personal hero of mine, he's just such a character. This video has taken him up another notch in my estimation: | |
2010-12-07 03:41:23 | ||
Riccardo riccardoreitano@tiscali... 192.84.150.209 |
On models (taken from Prof. Wasserburg):
As philosopher Alfred Korzybski once stated, “the map is not the territory”; the “map” is what we think resembles reality, and we should use it as a guide in our thinking and actions. One is well advised, when traveling to a new territory, to take a good map and then to check the map with the actual territory during the journey.
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2010-12-07 17:07:01 | Unfortunately, this one was mine | |
Daniel Bailey Daniel Bailey yooper49855@hotmail... 66.96.96.66 |
I believe it was Trenberth who said that global warming has increased the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere by 4%. That 4% increase is the equivalent of adding the entire volume of Lake Erie held in suspension in the air (if I did my math right).
No wonder when it rains, it pours. | |
2010-12-13 03:07:29 | ||
Bob Guercio Robert Guercio robertguercio@optonline... 24.187.94.227 |
Climate is what you expect and weather is what you get. | |
2010-12-20 09:29:49 | ||
villabolo villabolo@yahoo... 76.93.91.62 |
When you make a decision to buy or sell stock you never, ever base it on a few days of its falling because that may be a temporary fluctuation that could go back to normal or even rise some more. You should base your decision on two things. A 30 day chart of your stock activity and, more importantly, extensive knowledge about the overall health of the company. Likewise, when making a decision about the validity of Global Warming, you must have at least 30 years of information in order to make sure that what is happening is a long term trend and not a temporary fluctuation. | |
2010-12-20 17:50:34 | Two good metaphors | |
James Wight jameswight@southernphone.com... 112.213.166.150 |
Two good metaphors from "Dr. Jeff's Blog on the Universe": If the Earth's 10-billion-year lifespan were shrunk down into the 75-year lifespan of a human, the dramatic rise in CO2 and all the associated changes have happened in the last 35 seconds of the 13,697th day. Alcohol is a trace chemical in blood, but if it increases from 300 ppm to 1,000 ppm it has noticeable effects! | |
2010-12-21 18:49:00 | Rebuttal to 'skeptics' "water vapor is more potent than Carbon Dioxide" argument. | |
villabolo villabolo@yahoo... 76.93.91.62 |
Imagine two different campfires. One is a large bonfire (Representing water vapor.) and the other is a modest campfire (Carbon Dioxide.) right besides it. Now imagine that you keep adding fuel to the smaller campfire. What will obviously happen is that the smaller of the two fires will eventually get bigger. In like manner, adding Carbon Dioxide to the atmosphere will increase the Earth's temperature regardless of how large a role water vapor plays. | |
2010-12-27 21:27:04 | Quote I read on twitter | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 123.211.206.13 |
Saying snow disproves global warming is like saying birds disprove gravity | |
2010-12-29 09:38:07 | Quote from Climate Progress | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 123.211.206.13 |
Weather is small scale and climate is large scale. Often things become much more predictable at larger scales. If I dump a load of sand over a cliff, I can’t tell you where each and every grain of sand will go, but I’m certain there is going to be a pile of sand at the bottom of the cliff. | |
2010-12-29 11:42:19 | I think you mean weather is micro processes and climate is macro processes | |
Daniel Bailey Daniel Bailey yooper49855@hotmail... 74.87.123.162 |
Coming from a mapping background:
Therefore, the "bigger" the number the smaller the scale. So it might be more appropriate to refer to it as: "Weather is large scale and climate is small scale; large scale is up close and personal while small scale affects everyone" With the greater data encompassed in the smaller-scale product, more trends can be discerned above the noise.
The same goes in satellite imagery analysis: if one is windowed in too far (zoomed in to too large a scale), it is often difficult to fully decipher something. Once you window out to a smaller scale, the noise goes away (the picture becomes more refined and less grainy) and voila! The best recon imagery allows one to read the headline of the newspaper the guy sitting on the park bench is reading. But it's only until you window out to a small enough scale can you tell if he's sitting in Red Square or in Central Park...
Sorry to be a such a major buzz-kill | |
2010-12-30 10:18:30 | Metaphor on time lags and climate inertia | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 123.211.206.13 |
Another nice quote I read on an email list:
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2011-01-13 22:44:02 | Can I suggest the following analogy for the “natural CO2 emissions” rebuttal? | |
James Wight jameswight@southernphone.com... 112.213.154.212 |
If you want to know someone’s financial situation, you don’t just look at their income. You also have to look at their expenditure. | |
2011-01-17 11:59:13 | Naomi Oreskes metaphor for rebutting Ian Plimer's 'CO2 comes from volcanoes' argument | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.100.112 |
Just got the foreword for our book from Naomi Oreskes. Nice metaphor on Plimer's volcanic CO2: Plimer speculates that invisible, undetected, underwater volcanoes are responsible for the increased atmospheric CO2. Besides the obvious point that he is asking us to believe in something that no one has seen, felt, or observed in any way shape or form— he asks us to disbelieve what scientists have seen and measured. It’s a bit like asking us to believe in Santa Claus after we have seen mom and dad putting the presents under the tree. | |
2011-01-17 19:53:38 | ||
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 91.33.108.242 |
Reminds me of the line by Groucho Marx (Duck Soup), on being caught in bed with his client's wife: "Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?" | |
2011-01-20 15:11:34 | just a good quote | |
citizenschallenge Peter Miesler citizenschallenge7@gmail... 166.164.187.15 |
I know it's not a climate metaphor, but it is too a quote not to share: "Critics of science ask good questions, even though they tend not to listen to the answers." | |
2011-02-09 09:49:04 | If it walks like a duck | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 123.211.149.21 |
In an email discussion, Scott Mandia made this point: If increases in CO2 are not causing modern day global warming then two things must be true: This is a good argument. I also like Lou Grinzo's paraphrase of this argument: If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck then it's some other, undefined animal or thing impersonating a duck that's also mysteriously hiding the real duck. | |
2011-02-09 11:53:58 | Whodunit analogy | |
James Wight jameswight@southernphone.com... 112.213.148.195 |
In David Archer's book The Long Thaw, he uses the analogy of a murder mystery where all the evidence points to the butler. You can't convict someone else of the murder - say, the chauffer - without also unconvicting the butler. | |
2011-02-09 12:32:23 | Extreme weather and smoking | |
James Wight jameswight@southernphone.com... 112.213.148.195 |
As James Hansen has pointed out, when we talk about extreme weather, different emphases can give the public the impression of either “yes” or “no”, so how can we communicate the subtleties? I suggest an analogy with the link between smoking and cancer. Can an individual smoker’s death from lung cancer be attributed to their smoking? No. Does smoking increase the risk of lung cancer? Yes. Would that smoker have died from lung cancer if they hadn’t smoked? Probably not. | |
2011-02-11 04:10:11 | Another cold, snowy winter in Eastern U.S. | |
Tom Smerling avi@smerling... 208.59.167.74 |
So if the earth is warming, why is it again so cold and snowy outside (in the East and Midwest)? Dr. Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) has an great metaphor for explaining the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents Pattern." A warm Arctic and weak North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) alter air circulation patterns. In particular, the Polar Vortex winds that normally "trap" cold air in the Arctic weaken, allowing cold Arctic air to "escape" southward. "This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house." http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1702 [For further explanation of this pattern, see: -- NOAA http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/warm_arctic_cold_continent.htm -- Climate Central's story title "Arctic Paradox: Warmer Arctic may mean colder weather for some." http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/arctic-paradox-warmer-arctic-may-mean-colder-winters-for-some/, with links to scientific sources. -- And of course John's excellent http://www.skepticalscience.com/December-2009-record-cold-spells.htm] | |
2011-02-12 02:04:01 | "If 98 doctors say my son is ill...." | |
Tom Smerling avi@smerling... 208.59.167.74 |
“If ninety-eight doctors say my son is ill and needs medication, and two say ‘No, he doesn’t he is fine.’ I will go with the ninety-eight. It’s common sense – the same with global warming.” -- Former CA Gov. Arnold Schwartzenegger This one has several features of an effective metaphor: It 1) explains the unfamiliar in terms of the familiar, 2) conjures up a favorable "frame" (parenthood), and 3) comes from surprising source: the Terminator himself. (cited in T. Friedman's, Hot, Flat & Crowded, p. 138) | |
2011-02-22 08:49:51 | ;-) | |
citizenschallenge Peter Miesler citizenschallenge7@gmail... 166.164.170.15 |
new... and improved, I hope ~ ~ ~ Watching the way “skeptical” groups like Marshall Institute, SPPI, Heartland and their media echo-chamber attack the IPCC makes me think of those long ago Texas Fence Cutting Wars. These skirmishes were initiated by old time Cattle Baron’s who refused to recognize that the open prairie was disappearing and that fences and cooperation were the unavoidable waves of the future. | |
2011-02-24 10:46:38 | Great response to the OISM 31,000 skeptic scientists argument | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.223.91.161 |
Whose opinions count? I'd turn this around and ask: if your spouse has heart trouble and 10 topnotch heart surgeons tell you an operation is needed, but 30,00 random people sign a petition otherwise, who do you listen to? Even if 10 brain surgeons say no, they are doctors also, but which group matters? | |
2011-02-25 12:34:18 | Another good angle on the OISM petition | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.223.91.161 |
Excerpt from an email from a climate scientist:
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2011-02-26 19:06:23 | off topic | |
citizenschallenge Peter Miesler citizenschallenge7@gmail... 96.14.27.247 |
"imperson-gate" (non-scientists pretending to be scientists) Oh that's good! Post material even {although I would extend it to include non-climatologists pretending to be climatologists.}
This is off topic but if you have links focusing on this, please share | |
2011-03-17 23:47:54 | ||
Glenn Tamblyn glenn@thefoodgallery.com... 121.219.71.229 |
Quote from Paul Watson - Captain of the Sea Shepherd, early founder of Greenpeace (this is a paraphrase - for the exact quote, listen to episode 6 of 'In Gordon St Tonight' - ABC Australia http://www.abc.net.au/tv/adamhillsIGST/stories/s3159480.htm) "Worms are more important than People. People need Worms, Worms don't need People. (and other animals). The Earth is like a spaceship. The Worms (and other animals) are the crew. We are just the passengers, along for the ride. The ship can survive without the passengers but not without the crew." | |
2011-03-19 11:14:44 | Quote from Democrat rep Inslee at recent hearing | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 124.187.101.78 |
Let me address the argument that CO2 is benign because we exhale it. That's about as good an argument as saying a tsunami isn't dangerous because we drink water." | |
2011-03-29 20:56:14 | Quote from an email by SkS user 'fingerprinter' | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 124.185.238.238 |
Obsession with global mean temperature changes due to a 40% increase in CO2 is a little like a heavy drinker and smoker who continually gets health check ups during their 20s. According to the current focus on global mean temperature, that person would take each positive health check as a green light to not only continue with their lifestyle, but safely assume that they could increase to a pack a day with 12 stubbies in the evening for the foreseeable future, since the doctor said they were in reasonable shape.
Similarly, the obsession with regional climate projections - i.e. tell us what will happen to Perth in 2036 or we will basically take no action, is analogous to someone being informed that early exposure to UV greatly increases their risk of skin cancer, but fails to take that advice since the doctor cannot tell them where or when the cancer will specifically occur. This is the second biggest example of leakage- the regional projections. | |
2011-04-08 14:22:30 | Possibly the simplest, most intuitive explanation of the difference between weather and climate from John Abraham | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 60.231.60.165 |
What I tell people is that I can't tell you whether it will be hotter or colder five days from now but I can tell you it will be hotter in July than in January. That's the difference between weather and climate. I know that it isn't quite accurate but it is pretty good and an easy analogy. | |
2011-04-08 15:06:12 | ||
logicman logicman_alf@yahoo.co... 86.145.234.252 |
Models are unreliable. I agree - they are often late for photo-shoots.
The climate has always changed. Yes, it was a lot wetter in Noah's time.
Greenland was green. The Oranje-Vrijstaat was orange.
The data shows no clear trend. From May 31 1911 to April 15 1912 the Titanic's freeboard showed no significant downward trend. | |
2011-04-20 09:46:11 | Explaining how much CO2 we emit | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 124.187.72.92 |
Borrowed this from Mike Mann:
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2011-04-22 21:05:52 | ||
MarkR Mark Richardson m.t.richardson2@gmail... 134.225.187.197 |
[URL=http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/2011/03/memo-to-republicans-dont-bother-voting.html]DenialDepot[/URL] with an excellent one.
Absolutely brilliant IMO :p | |
2011-04-23 07:27:27 | More weather vs climate | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 124.187.72.92 |
http://www.climate.umn.edu/weathertalk/110422.htm I always describe weather as the environmental conditions that exist right now and climate as the historical average for the date. As climate (averages) changes over time, the probability for specific types of weather changes as well. But there are many other, more clever distinctions made through analogies by colleagues in the American Association of State Climatologists, including: climate trains the boxer, weather throws the punches | |
2011-05-02 23:33:17 | On ceding leadership on clean energy to China.... | |
Tom Smerling avi@smerling... 208.59.167.74 |
When the conversation turns to the coming "clean energy revolution" -- and how we're missing an opportunity to lead it -- this one-liner from Tom Friedman's Hot, Flat & Crowded always elicits some some knowing smiles and nodding heads: "If you like buying oil from the Saudis, you'll love buying solar [technology] from the Chinese!" | |
2011-05-03 00:29:54 | Smoking analogy helps illustrate many points | |
Tom Smerling avi@smerling... 208.59.167.74 |
The smoking analogy seems to be working well with audiences, and not just for explaining the disinformation campaign Time lag between cause/effect:
Denial, change:
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2011-05-14 03:09:41 | More humor, anybody? | |
Tom Smerling avi@smerling... 208.59.167.74 |
I've recently done some experimenting with injecting humor into speeches and interviews. It's worked great. Even hostile interviewers/audience members have to laugh, and even against their will they are emotionally "on your side" for a while. Appropos to that, I loved logicman's April 8 post "Models are unreliable. I agree - they are often late for photo shoots!" Anybody got some more quick one-liners like that? | |
2011-05-15 02:18:11 | One-Liner | |
John Hartz John Hartz john.hartz@hotmail... 98.122.68.19 |
"What happens on Mars, stays on Mars." Note: This is a take-off on a popular US saying, "What happens in Las Vegas, stays in Las Vegas." | |
2011-05-16 12:48:28 | ||
Alex C coultera@umich... 67.149.101.148 |
Don't know if anyone has said this yet, but this should be a bumper sticker (you'll get the pun in a second): This would be ideal for anyone who tries to bring up the "climate's changed before" argument. | |
2011-05-20 14:50:24 | Explaining chaos | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 58.166.133.186 |
Specifically, this is a lovely exchange by Michael Ashley about Svensmark's cosmic ray theory but I just like it to put the chaos argument in perspective: > With reference to Svensmark, I've come up with a small analogy that I | |
2011-05-25 09:14:12 | On responding to citations of Spencer, Lindzen, other denier scientists | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 58.166.133.186 |
From John Abraham:
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2011-05-25 09:56:03 | ||
dana1981 Dana Nuccitelli dana1981@yahoo... 64.129.227.4 |
These last two are good. It's possible that the doctor who is usually wrong is right for once, but it's not bloody likely, especially when his reasoning is crap. | |
2011-05-30 18:21:47 | Tidalwaves. | |
Glenn Tamblyn glenn@thefoodgallery.com... 144.131.5.235 |
I don't know if this a good metaphor, or a bit off-colour. WRT timelags in the climate and the precautionary principle.
"If you live on the coast in a tidal wave prone region, when a large earthquake happens do you head for high ground immediately or do you 'wait and see' if a tidal wave arrives before you start to run?" | |
2011-05-30 20:50:50 | ||
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 84.151.52.174 |
It's off-color. There's too much sex in it. | |
2011-06-10 03:12:04 | Lots of climate metaphors at www.ClimateBites.org (beta). Please give us your feedback!! | |
Tom Smerling avi@smerling... 216.164.57.97 |
SkS climate communicators: Please check out our new website, www.climatebites.org, and give us your feedback. Its still in beta, but we particularly value feedback -- and contributions -- from SkS'ers, because we see ClimateBites as a kind of a complement or "sister-site" to SkS (we link to SkS throughout , for the underlying science.) ClimateBites is designed to be a grab bag of language tools. The core is a growing collection of climate metaphors, soundbites, quotes, imagery, useful for communicating with general audiences. (Click "Bites" at top menu. For a sneak peek at what's coming next, click "Tools"._ FYI The site was born out of my frustration, upon leaving NOAA in 2008, at finding language, slides and scripts for translating science effectively to general audiences. After gathering a bunch of material, colleague Don McCubbin and I decided to share it with other climate communicators. Please stop by the site, register (you can be the first!) and click "About" at top to tell us what you think! www.climatebites.org Thanks, in advance, Tom Smerling (aka dardas on SkS) tom@smerling.com |