Got this email from Brendan DeMelle from Desmogblog who received an email from Tom Shipley:
Hi John, are you all familiar with this book/author? I don't know what kind of readership he has, but I wanted to flag it for your team.
MESSAGE FROM SHIPLEY:
The current understanding, world-wide, of global warming is incorrect. I think the enclosed book will convince you.
The book, Man-Made Global Warming? It’s foolishness In Words That All Can Understand, describes mistakes and errors made by scientists, and presents evidence of false and misleading information introduced by climate-studies scientists. Something isn’t clear to you? Book references tell you where to go for more information.
I am an old electrical engineer; I had no interest in global studies, pro or con. But I became interested in it because of the peculiarity of the news being reported on the subject – terrible, terrible troubles from extreme global warming, but never accompanied by a single temperature magnitude or change. Just a bit more of my attention to the subject showed, very quickly, that something really weird was going on. So I began the process that wound up as a book.
Historical information, written to prove that a disaster isn’t really a disaster, generally interests a few, but not many. The prose for definitive proof quickly becomes tedious reading. However, I thought the effort worth it, so I finally decided to collect the factual works of a range of true scientists, assemble them as best I could in a book, and make it available to the nation and world. If people choose not to read it – so be it. I didn’t write it for riches and fame; it is too late. At my next birthday in March, I will be 88 years old, so I won’t be around long enough to enjoy any potential fruits.
The book shows that the increase of global temperatures is not caused by human activities, but it does not include a chart of global temperatures; it only includes some references and two scary charts of what the climate scientists call anomalies. I tried at one time to plot 158 years of Celsius and Fahrenheit scale temperatures, but mistakes and monotony soon stopped the effort. But after the book was published, I decided the tale wasn’t complete without the curves.
Records, available for 161 years, when converted to actual temperatures, show the increase of temperatures has been insufficient to cause worries, regardless of whether man-made or not. So I decided the curves were necessary, and began work with anomaly records accumulated during 2009, 2010, and 2011. The data were published by the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UEA), Norwich, UK,, one of the four agencies responsible for climate studies, and I had recorded them in Excel computer spreadsheet files.
On my second day of plotting, my son T. Doane Shipley, an engineer with Eaton Corporation in Pittsburgh, interrupted my activities with a telephone call, and when I told him what I was doing, he said, “Dad, that can be done easily with Excel.” He then told me how I could do it. I have used Excel for years, but I couldn’t get it done. We talked some more, and I finally sent him the data by e-mail. He did the work, and the fruits of his labor are shown in Figure 1.
You will find, if you read the book, that Doane’s work is another example of the methods I used to write it. I mined other people’s work, dependable sources for certain information, to illustrate the problems and to show that we are spending billions of dollars, along with the rest of the world, on a fool’s quest. The foolishness was foisted on the popular media by so-called scientists in efforts to increase funding for the work they do, who then foisted it on the public – world-wide. We should blame the scientists for their misdeeds, but shouldn’t forget the Associated Press -- its news reports, without knowledgeable investigation, spread the foolishness and made it real.
The top graphic is the plot that approximates those the global warming scientists have published. Their versions, however, reproduced on page 29 of the book, are even scarier than this one.
The Anomaly plot has to show positive and negative readings, so a reference point, 0, is necessary and is somewhat unusual; the scientists picked it, haven’t explained the reason yet, so we will have to wait for that. I found, with the help of Dr. Phil Jones, UEA, that the temperature at anomaly 0 is actually 14 Deg. Celsius (equivalent to 57.2 Deg. F in the United States). An anomaly is actually a temperature measured in degrees Celsius, from which the number 14 has been subtracted. In correspondence with Dr. Jones, I obtained this information, but not the reason. It may have been done because decimal values are easier to plot and tabulate.
The middle graph shows the plot that results from converting anomalies to absolute temperature in degrees Celsius. You can see how converting anomalies to degrees Celsius smooths the curve – takes away some of its threatening qualities. The Celsius scale, known as the Centigrade scale until 1954, is used in United States laboratory environments and in all areas of the rest of the world.
A plot of anomalies shows an increase or decrease in temperature far more definitively than a plot of actual temperature measurements. For example, in 1982 the anomaly was 0.015 and the temperature increased until 1998, to an anomaly of 0.529. Plotting this appears to show an increase of 34.27, or 3,427% in temperature. But reference to the middle graph, the Celsius scale, shows that the actual Celsius temperature for those years went from 14.015 Degrees C to 14.529 , for a change of only .03667, or 3.67%, and the lowest graph, the Fahrenheit scale, the temperature increased from 57.23 Degrees F to 58.15 – only 0.01607, a 1.61% increase in actual temperature.
You cannot work to that degree of accuracy by referring to the charts. But I can; I am working with Excel and the Excel file to which I previously referred. (However I should note: The actual temperatures with which I am working, which the scientists have provided, were not measured with sufficient accuracy, so I’m not working to the necessary degree of accuracy, either.)
The bottom graph shows the average yearly global temperatures plotted in degrees Fahrenheit. It is difficult to show graphically, but that introduces a further, but much smaller, smoothing effect from that shown in the middle graph, in degrees Celsius.
The book tells George Wills story about scientists’ fears about a coming ice age. An example: In the 1970s, "a major cooling of the planet" was "widely considered inevitable" because it was "well established" that the Northern Hemisphere's climate "has been getting cooler since about 1950" (The New York Times, May 21, 1975). Although some disputed that the "cooling trend" could result in "a return to another ice age" (the Times, Sept. 14, 1975), others anticipated "a full-blown 10,000-year ice age" involving "extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation" (Science News, March 1, 1975, and Science magazine, Dec. 10, 1976, respectively).
The top chart shows that temperatures had bobbled up and down during that period, but had dropped from 1944 until 1976. By the time the scientists had noted the downward trend, determined that a danger existed and were really into publicizing it -- it was gone. Temperatures increased in 1977, continued to increase until 1998, began to drop, but remained considerably above 1976’s temperature for a total of 35 years.
The Anomaly graph shows a series of temperature cycles, beginning in 1850, when temperatures were first recorded. From 1850 to 1878 temperatures increased; from 1878 to 1911 they dropped; from 1911 to 1944 they increased; from 1944 to 1976 they trended down; from 1976 to 1998 they increased; from 1998 to 2011 they have decreased – from 0.529 to 0.348. Old Mother Nature never sleeps; she is working all the time. Her changes, of course, are much more evident with a plot of anomalies.
The Excel graph, when displayed, can be directed to show a trend line. The program averages all the temperature ups and downs and provides a linear line to show the average of the increases and decreases of all the plotted data from the beginning to the end. It shows the total increase, from 1850 to 2011, to have been 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit. The book shows you that the location of the sensors in the United States cannot provide measurements to that degree of accuracy. However, we know that the average temperature, globally, has been increasing because we are still recovering from a past ice age. Christopher Scotese, in his PALEOMAP Project, tells us: “For the last 5 million years the Earth has been in a major Ice Age. There have been only a few times in Earth's history when it has been as cold as it has been during the last 5 million years.” (You can see that in the Scotese chart of temperature for millions of years, Figure 6, page 98 of the book.) Scotese defines ice age as: “When the Earth is in its "Ice House" climate mode, there is ice at the poles. The polar ice sheet expands and contracts because of variations in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles). The last expansion of the polar ice sheets took place about 18,000 years ago.”
The book shines much more light on the ineptness of the scientists’ and their theory of man-made warming, and the credibility of the scientists and prominent members of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). You will wonder: How did we get this involved -- and so far wrong?
Note: All temperature data quoted in this text have been obtained from the Internet site of the University of East Anglia, Climate Research Unit: www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3vgl.txt. The data are official, you don’t have to pay a fee, join an organization, or provide personal information obtain it. Just go to the site, observe the data, and do your thing.
Note 2: The book: Man-Made Global Warming? It’s Foolishness in Words That All Can Understand.