2012-02-01 11:12:45Tom Shipley
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
130.102.158.12

Got this email from Brendan DeMelle from Desmogblog who received an email from Tom Shipley:

Hi John, are you all familiar with this book/author?  I don't know what kind of readership he has, but I wanted to flag it for your team.


MESSAGE FROM SHIPLEY:

The current understanding, world-wide, of global warming is incorrect.  I
think the enclosed book will convince you.

The book, Man-Made Global Warming?  It’s foolishness In Words That All Can
Understand, describes mistakes and errors made by scientists, and presents
evidence of false and misleading information introduced by climate-studies
scientists. Something isn’t clear to you? Book references tell you where to
go for more information.

I am an old electrical engineer; I had no interest in global studies, pro or
con. But I became interested in it because of the peculiarity of the news
being reported on the subject – terrible, terrible troubles from extreme
global warming, but never accompanied by a single temperature magnitude or
change.  Just a bit more of my attention to the subject showed, very quickly,
that something really weird was going on.  So I began the process that wound
up as a book.

Historical information, written to prove that a disaster isn’t really a
disaster, generally interests a few, but not many.   The prose for definitive
proof quickly becomes tedious reading.  However, I thought the effort worth
it, so I finally decided to collect the factual works of a range of true
scientists, assemble them as best I could in a book, and make it available to
the nation and world.  If people choose not to read it – so be it.  I
didn’t write it for riches and fame; it is too late.  At my next birthday
in March, I will be 88 years old, so I won’t be around long enough to enjoy
any potential fruits.

The book shows that the increase of global temperatures is not caused by
human activities, but it does not include a chart of global temperatures; it
only includes some references and two scary charts of what the climate
scientists call anomalies.  I tried at one time to plot 158 years of Celsius
and Fahrenheit scale temperatures, but mistakes and monotony soon stopped the
effort.  But after the book was published, I decided the tale wasn’t
complete without the curves.

Records, available for 161 years, when converted to actual temperatures, show
the increase of temperatures has been insufficient to cause worries,
regardless of whether man-made or not.  So I decided the curves were
necessary, and began work with anomaly records accumulated during 2009, 2010,
and 2011.  The data were published by the Climate Research Unit of the
University of East Anglia (UEA), Norwich, UK,, one of the four agencies
responsible for climate studies, and I had recorded them in Excel computer
spreadsheet files.

On my second day of plotting, my son T. Doane Shipley, an engineer with Eaton
Corporation in Pittsburgh, interrupted my activities with a telephone call,
and when I told him what I was doing, he said, “Dad, that can be done
easily with Excel.”  He then told me how I could do it.  I have used Excel
for years, but I couldn’t get it done.  We talked some more, and I finally
sent him the data by e-mail.  He did the work, and the fruits of his labor
are shown in Figure 1.

You will find, if you read the book, that Doane’s work is another example
of the methods I used to write it.  I mined other people’s work, dependable
sources for certain information, to illustrate the problems and to show that
we are spending billions of dollars, along with the rest of the world, on a
fool’s quest. The foolishness was foisted on the popular media by so-called
scientists in efforts to increase funding for the work they do, who then
foisted it on the public – world-wide. We should blame the scientists for
their misdeeds, but shouldn’t forget the Associated Press -- its news
reports, without knowledgeable investigation, spread the foolishness and made
it real.

The top graphic is the plot that approximates those the global warming
scientists have published.  Their versions, however, reproduced on page 29 of
the book, are even scarier than this one.



Figure 1

The Anomaly plot has to show positive and negative readings, so a reference
point, 0, is necessary and is somewhat unusual; the scientists picked it,
haven’t explained the reason yet, so we will have to wait for that.  I
found, with the help of Dr. Phil Jones, UEA, that the temperature at anomaly
0 is actually 14 Deg. Celsius (equivalent to 57.2 Deg. F in the United
States).  An anomaly is actually a temperature measured in degrees Celsius,
from which the number 14 has been subtracted.  In correspondence with Dr.
Jones, I obtained this information, but not the reason.  It may have been
done because decimal values are easier to plot and tabulate.

The middle graph shows the plot that results from converting anomalies to
absolute temperature in degrees Celsius.  You can see how converting
anomalies to degrees Celsius smooths the curve – takes away some of its
threatening qualities. The Celsius scale, known as the Centigrade scale until
1954, is used in United States laboratory environments and in all areas of
the rest of the world.

A plot of anomalies shows an increase or decrease in temperature far more
definitively than a plot of actual temperature measurements.  For example, in
1982 the anomaly was 0.015 and the temperature increased until 1998, to an
anomaly of 0.529.  Plotting this appears to show an increase of 34.27, or
3,427% in temperature.  But reference to the middle graph, the Celsius scale,
shows that the actual Celsius temperature for those years went from 14.015
Degrees C to 14.529 , for a change of only .03667, or 3.67%, and the lowest
graph, the Fahrenheit scale, the temperature increased from 57.23 Degrees F
to 58.15 – only 0.01607, a 1.61% increase in actual temperature.

You cannot work to that degree of accuracy by referring to the charts.  But I
can; I am working with Excel and the Excel file to which I previously
referred.  (However I should note: The actual temperatures with which I am
working, which the scientists have provided, were not measured with
sufficient accuracy, so I’m not working to the necessary degree of
accuracy, either.)

The bottom graph shows the average yearly global temperatures plotted in
degrees Fahrenheit.  It is difficult to show graphically, but that introduces
a further, but much smaller, smoothing effect from that shown in the middle
graph, in degrees Celsius.

The book tells George Wills story about scientists’ fears about a coming
ice age. An example:
In the 1970s, "a major cooling of the planet" was "widely considered
inevitable" because it was "well established" that the Northern Hemisphere's
climate "has been getting cooler since about 1950" (The New York Times, May
21, 1975). Although some disputed that the "cooling trend" could result in "a
return to another ice age" (the Times, Sept. 14, 1975), others anticipated "a
full-blown 10,000-year ice age" involving "extensive Northern Hemisphere
glaciation" (Science News, March 1, 1975, and Science magazine, Dec. 10,
1976, respectively).

The top chart shows that temperatures had bobbled up and down during that
period, but had dropped from 1944 until 1976.  By the time the scientists had
noted the downward trend, determined that a danger existed and were really
into publicizing it -- it was gone. Temperatures increased in 1977, continued
to increase until 1998, began to drop, but remained considerably above
1976’s temperature for a total of 35 years.

The Anomaly graph shows a series of temperature cycles, beginning in 1850,
when temperatures were first recorded.  From 1850 to 1878 temperatures
increased; from 1878 to 1911 they dropped; from 1911 to 1944 they increased;
from 1944 to 1976 they trended down; from 1976 to 1998 they increased; from
1998 to 2011 they have decreased – from 0.529 to 0.348.  Old Mother Nature
never sleeps; she is working all the time.  Her changes, of course, are much
more evident with a plot of anomalies.

The Excel graph, when displayed, can be directed to show a trend line.  The
program averages all the temperature ups and downs and provides a linear line
to show the average of the increases and decreases of all the plotted data
from the beginning to the end.  It shows the total increase, from 1850 to
2011, to have been 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit.  The book shows you that the
location of the sensors in the United States cannot provide measurements to
that degree of accuracy.  However, we know that the average temperature,
globally, has been increasing because we are still recovering from a past ice
age.  Christopher Scotese, in his PALEOMAP Project,
tells us: “For the last 5 million years the Earth has been in a major Ice
Age. There have been only a few times in Earth's history when it has been as
cold as it has been during the last 5 million years.” (You can see that in
the Scotese chart of temperature for millions of years, Figure 6, page 98 of
the book.)  Scotese defines ice age as: “When the Earth is in its "Ice
House" climate mode, there is ice at the poles. The polar ice sheet expands
and contracts because of variations in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch
cycles). The last expansion of the polar ice sheets took place about 18,000
years ago.”

The book shines much more light on the ineptness of the scientists’ and
their theory of man-made warming, and the credibility of the scientists and
prominent members of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Climate
Change (IPCC).   You will wonder: How did we get this involved -- and so far
wrong?

Tom Shipley
tom@tomshipleyjr.com

Note: All temperature data quoted in this text have been obtained from the
Internet site of the University of East Anglia, Climate Research Unit:
www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3vgl.txt.  The data are
official, you don’t have to pay a fee, join an organization, or provide
personal information obtain it.  Just go to the site, observe the data, and
do your thing.

Note 2: The book: Man-Made Global Warming? It’s Foolishness in Words That
All Can Understand.

Published by AuthorHouse, 10/12/2011.

Available for sale worldwide in our online bookstore:
http://bookstore.authorhouse.com/Products/SKU-000487074/ManMade-Global-Warming.aspx.

Available for order at:
•       Barnes & Noble.com (www.bn.com)
•       Amazon.com
•       Booksamillion.com
And many other sites!

Tom Shipley
tom@tomshipleyjr.com
2694 Dorchester Rd.
Birmingham, MI 48009