2012-02-29 04:25:26Douglass & Knox 2012 pre-bunked
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

I think this is about ready for review.  I also want to submit these points as a comment to the journal.  I'm still a little iffy about whether it's appropriate to consider the geothermal flux in these estimates, since it's basically constant, but it's roughly offset by the abyssal ocean heat anyway.

  • Douglass & Knox 2012 pre-bunked
  • 2012-03-01 05:05:05
    Albatross
    Julian Brimelow
    stomatalaperture@gmail...
    23.17.186.57

    Well, seeing no one else has said anything.. ;)

    2012-03-01 06:19:08thumb
    logicman

    logicman_alf@yahoo.co...
    109.150.152.138

    I already made comments in the other thread.

    Well done.

    2012-03-01 06:42:41
    dana1981
    Dana Nuccitelli
    dana1981@yahoo...
    64.129.227.4

    Thanks.  At the moment I'm waiting to hear back from the journal editors as to whether they'll accept a comment on the paper.

    2012-03-01 09:58:49
    Daniel Bailey
    Daniel Bailey
    yooper49855@hotmail...
    97.83.150.37

    Well-done.  And nice title...

    ;)

    2012-03-08 03:26:40
    dana1981
    Dana Nuccitelli
    dana1981@yahoo...
    64.129.227.4

    I finally got instructions from Elseiver editors how to submit a comment, so I'm going to convert this post into a comment and submit it.  I think I'll still post this tomorrow though, because I imagine it will take a while to get the comment published, at which point we can revisit this post.

    2012-03-08 03:59:54
    Albatross
    Julian Brimelow
    stomatalaperture@gmail...
    23.17.186.57

    Hi Dana,

    Be careful.  When submitting a manuscript one has to typically state that the manuscript is not in review anywhere else or been published elsewhere.  Posting it as a blog article probably does not count, but it may be worth checking/confirming.

    It might be good to get a co-author on board with an academic affiliation or who is affiliated with a university, just for some clout.

    2012-03-08 05:09:47
    dana1981
    Dana Nuccitelli
    dana1981@yahoo...
    64.129.227.4

    It also won't be identical - the blog post just has some of the data and arguments we'll use in the comment.

    Any co-author volunteers?  I asked John if he thought Church would be willing to review, but I wonder if he might be interested in co-authoring.

    2012-03-08 05:38:42
    Albatross
    Julian Brimelow
    stomatalaperture@gmail...
    198.161.203.92

    Dana,

    If Church (or White, or Murphy or Trenberth or Lyman or Levitus) is willing, he would be a very eminent scientists to publish a paper with!

    Just some ideas

    [Update:  I can't recall when the deadline for submissions for AR5 is, but it would be nice to have this accepted for publication before then].

    2012-03-08 06:37:30
    dana1981
    Dana Nuccitelli
    dana1981@yahoo...
    64.129.227.4

    We'll see if we can exploit some of John's connections to get an eminent scientist on board :-)  Plus to make sure we've got the analysis as robust as possible.  If not Church (who I suggested because John has corresponded with him, and who certainly has expertise here), then maybe Trenberth for the same reasons.

    I would imagine we can get this published in time for AR5.  That's our target for TCP, and this one should be much quicker.  But I don't expect Douglass & Knox to have much impact on AR5, to say the least :-)

    2012-03-08 07:17:20
    Daniel Bailey
    Daniel Bailey
    yooper49855@hotmail...
    24.213.18.68

    I can get you Trenberth's email address.  Or email him for you, if you like.

    2012-03-08 07:23:04
    dana1981
    Dana Nuccitelli
    dana1981@yahoo...
    64.129.227.4

    Thanks Daniel.  Maybe we'll wait to see if we can get Church on board first.  Since we're mostly focusing on ocean heat content, his expertise is a little more applicable.

    On second thought though, maybe we'll hold off on this post, just to make sure we don't give them a reason not to publish the comment.  I hate to waste the good 'pre-bunked' theme though.  But we can still incorporate it into the later post, assuming our comment is published.

    2012-03-08 07:39:32
    Daniel Bailey
    Daniel Bailey
    yooper49855@hotmail...
    24.213.18.68

    Cool.  I've been looking for an excuse to reach out to Caldeira, too.

    2012-03-11 08:31:14Comment
    Robert Way

    robert_way19@hotmail...
    142.163.160.227

    I wouldn't mind having a little look at this stuff too.

    Umm lets see

    "For example, Kaufmann et al. (2011) found that the anthropogenic aerosol forcing has increased in recent years, and Solomon (2011) concluded that aerosol cooling has offset one-third of the CO2 warming since 2000.  Douglass & Knox have completely neglected this factor."

    We should considering including the aerosol forcing from volcanoes which were originally deemed to not being a contributor but have now been shown to be significant. It might be useful to plot the estimated forcings from Model E excluding GHG forcing just to show the sum of forcings countering GHG.

    "For example, while the 0-700 meter annual OHC trend (used by Douglass & Knox) is small when starting in late-2002 and ending in mid-2008, the trend from late-2004 to mid-2008 is much larger.  Was there another "climate shift" between late 2002 and late 2004, or are these "climate shifts" simply a case of playing games with short-term noise? "

    If you can send me the data we can perhaps show the predicted trends at each time interval. That being said neither would likely be statistically significant so i'm not sure if this is something worth fighting about? They'll just counter with a p value.

    "Douglass & Knox then move on to Von Schuckmann & Le Traon (2011), who reported ocean warming of 0.55 ± 0.1 W/m2 in the 10-1500 meter layer from 2005-2010."

    Why did they only report from 2005 on?



    2012-03-11 08:48:00
    Rob Painting
    Rob
    paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
    118.92.234.44

    Why did they only report from 2005 on?

    Insufficient global coverage in ARGO prior to that date, particularly the Southern Ocean.

    2012-03-11 09:24:56
    dana1981
    Dana Nuccitelli
    dana1981@yahoo...
    71.137.110.129

    I'll email the comment to you Robert, if you want to join in.

    2012-03-11 10:07:17comment
    Robert Way

    robert_way19@hotmail...
    134.153.162.53

    Sent along my comments