2012-02-29 21:21:48Declining Arctic sea-ice and record U.S. and European snowfalls: are they linked?
John Mason

johntherock@btopenworld...
86.133.202.150

Hi folks,

Bashed this out this morning in response to the Liu et al (including Curry) paper in PNAS. All edits welcome!

http://www.skepticalscience.com/declining-arctic-sea-ice-record-snowfalls-are-they-linked.html

If anyone wants to have a go at explaining their methodology in plain English then I'd be grateful: it starts under 'Results" on page 1 of the paper and is very teccy - I am not sufficiently up with these methods to even offer a critique of them were it justified!

Cheers - John

2012-03-01 21:38:16
Paul D

chillcast@googlemail...
82.18.130.183

Looks good.
Can't say I know the technical stuff well enough to comment on that.

2012-03-03 09:39:42
John Mason

johntherock@btopenworld...
86.133.202.150

Thanks Paul :)

Can other reviewers give it the due mangling?

Cheers - John

2012-03-03 21:04:27
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
2.33.129.107

Looks good to me. I expecially like the prudence in the conclusions. For example, the cold snap in Europe in the first half of february this year followed a different pattern with a strong dipole-like anomaly but reversed. There was a huge high pressure filed extending trhough Europe and Siberia with retrograde zonal winds along the southern edge of this field and low pressure over Greenland, Canadian Arctic and Northern Pacific Ocean. The cold in Europe was of continental origin, not arctic.

2012-03-04 18:41:14
John Mason

johntherock@btopenworld...
86.133.202.150

Yes, this winter was more of the 'classic' type with a very zonal pattern dominating but a period of Continental flow associated with a classic Scandi High advecting the cold into Central Europe - a proper Siberian Blast. We escaped it largely here in west Wales with no valley-level snowfall and overnight minima not getting below -7 - quite different to the extraordinary conditions of December 2010. Even in snow-prone E England the disruption was relatively short-lived, although some nasty frosts of below -15C occurred locally there. It does indeed seem that this new pattern switches on and off with noticeable effects, just as the Dipole switching on in Summer can put a severe extra dent in sea-ice extent by bringing in heat up through the Bering Strait. In the long term, the latter effect of the pattern is going to be more important and as a prediction probably too vague to include in the post, the Arctic will end up so warm in due course that winter teleconnection will not lead to such severe cold as it does at the moment. I want to see what actually happens over a few more years before putting cards on the public table WRT the latter!

Cheers - John

2012-03-05 12:33:05
Agnostic

mikepope_9@hotmail...
118.208.23.41

seen sea-ice areal extent … seen the real extent of sea ice

Daniel Bailey has a nice turn of phrase.  He recently referred to diminution of Arctic sea-ice as “the canary in the coal mine having a fatal near death experience”

2012-03-05 19:42:11
John Mason

johntherock@btopenworld...
86.133.202.150

Love that fatal near-death bit!

Thanks for the suggestion. I wasn't sure about using the word "real" though. Have messed about with the sentence in question and have gone for:

"So we have seen sea-ice coverage diminishing dramatically and sea-ice volume falling off a cliff."

Shorter and punchier :)

Cheers - John

2012-03-05 19:45:18
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
84.151.46.159

"fatal near-death" is an oxymoron: fatal => dead, near-death => not dead.

2012-03-05 20:01:17
John Mason

johntherock@btopenworld...
86.133.202.150

I think it was a purposeful oxymoron, Neal! I used to be fond of saying it is so cold that it must be "minus ten in the shade"!

Cheers - John

2012-03-06 20:32:43
John Mason

johntherock@btopenworld...
86.133.202.150

Have added links to the abstracts to the four papers referenced at the end.

 

Cheers - John

2012-03-07 15:12:16
Brian Purdue

bnpurdue@bigpond.net...
138.130.140.206

Expect this sharp week long trend to light up the deniersphere if it doesn't turn soon - similar thing got them excited in 2010.

2012-03-07 22:19:11
John Mason

johntherock@btopenworld...
81.129.232.193

Aye - they forget that ice that forms in a week can melt in a week!

Cheers - John

2012-03-13 07:24:42
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

This one is scheduled to be posted tomorrow.

2012-03-13 08:02:58
John Mason

johntherock@btopenworld...
81.129.232.193

OK :)

I'll pop in Thurs morning to answer queries. Got a lot on tomorrow & Weds but with the time-zones I don't think that'll matter too much!

Cheers - John