2012-02-01 16:36:46Volcanic Influence on the Little Ice Age
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.108.131

Post on the Miller paper attributing much of the LIA cooling to volcanic activity.

Volcanic Influence on the Little Ice Age

2012-02-03 07:36:36comment
Robert Way

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134.153.162.53

This work follows on Anderson et al (2008) which is where they first hypothesized about the Volcanic origin of the LIA

http://clearscience.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/anderson-et-al-2008/

That's a blog post I did on it back in the day when I used to do that.

Umm it seems like it is a good post but I do think maybe more of an explanation of what the pdf is, is required

2012-02-03 09:44:36
Riccardo

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188.152.84.243

In the summary, instead of "Miller et al. have thus demonstrated" use something like "Miller et al. thus suggests"

I don't find the conclusions of this paper well supported. They are based on a temporal coincidence and on weak model results. In Zhang 2011 only two simulations out of four show the proposed feedback.

2012-02-03 10:07:00
Hoskibui

hoskibui@gmail...
157.157.189.17

Read your post -haven´t read the paper yet (will do soon). Looks promising :)

Some reports in Iceland suggest that the paper demonstrate that the little ice age was not regional to Europe/north atlantic but a northern hemisphere phenomenon - did you see that in the paper?

This must suggest that the climate sensitivity is high - isn't it?

Gavin says on sciencenow, maybe helpful:

"I think it is likely that the abrupt start to the Little Ice Age in the late 13th century is volcanic in origin," says climate scientist Gavin Schmidt of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, who was not involved in the new work published today in Geophysical Research Letters. The agreement of the Baffin Island and Iceland climate records is convincing, he says, but he finds the modeling less so. "I'm far less convinced that this is the cause of the subsequent centuries of climate change," he says. Too few runs of a single model have been made, he explains, to do more than hint at how a volcanic cooling could become locked in for centuries.

2012-02-03 10:10:11
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Thanks guys, will make some revisions when I get the chance.  Hoskibui - I don't recall seeing that in the paper.  Their data were all from near the North Atlantic, mostly northern Canada.

2012-02-03 10:45:26
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
188.152.84.243

Hoskibui
on the one hand, the reduced transport of heat they propose as the feedback producing the LIA would be a local effect; if not in the Arctic North-Atlantic the heat must be somewhere else. On the other, the increased albedo would have a global effect. They estimate 1.5 W/m2 averaged over three centuries, a significant forcing.
Though, the atmospheric circulation would probably change dramatically and who knows what the overall effect could be. We need a GCM!  :)

2012-02-08 07:04:38comment
Robert Way

robert_way19@hotmail...
134.153.162.53

Dana could you by any chance take out the name of my former blog. You can just say as discussed here:

I just would prefer to not have my name attached to that blog