2012-01-27 16:13:59David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.110.182

Post on one of Archibald's many predictions of imminent global cooling due to the sun.

David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change

2012-01-28 00:57:50
John Mason

johntherock@btopenworld...
86.142.21.79

Good stuff, Dana. It might be worth expressing the difference between solar max/mins in W/m - it's tiny - and then comparing it with 2x CO2?

Cheers - John

2012-01-28 02:56:09
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Good idea, and also compared to the current TSI vs. that during the Dalton Minimum.  I'll have to look that up.

2012-01-28 03:10:03
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.194.46.120

Remember that forcing and TSI are not the same though.  TSI is top of atmosphere, and is measured as if cross-sectional to the Earth.  Forcing is relative to the Earth's surface area, which is four times the cross section (more or less; it's close enough to a sphere).  As such, a change in TSI actually translates into a forcing of a fourth that magnitude.

2012-01-28 03:12:02
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Right, forcing is proportional to TSI though.  As I recall, dF = 0.7 * d(TSI)/4.  I'll be sure to get it right.

2012-01-28 03:30:01
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
216.185.0.2

Hmm - currently getting a "500 Internal Server Error" attempting to go to the Hanover GISS record link.

Very topical post, incidentally, given it's the top item on the JoNova site right now.

2012-01-28 04:15:35
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Is it really?  I saw an Archibald post over at WUWT a few days ago too.

The Hanover link works for me, coincidentally.

2012-01-28 05:47:03
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
192.84.150.209

The section "Manufacturing Controversy" does not add much and the message is not clear. Consider dropping it.

If you decide to add the forcing think about estimating the feedback factor needed to have a 2.2 °C dropping. Deniers always complain about the feedbacks.

2012-01-28 12:03:03
michael sweet

sweetdreamfiji@hotmail...
71.180.96.4

The discussion of the Hanover temperature data is unclear to me.  It says in the text that the average anomily in Hanover is about 7C but the graph seems to indicate that the average temperature is 7C.  Anomaly and temperature are used interchangably in the text.  I think only a few words need to be changed.

I think this is a good post.  I like the idea of comparing the forcing Archibald claims will result in a 2C reduction of temperature with the CO2 forcing.

2012-01-29 09:39:32
Brian Purdue

bnpurdue@bigpond.net...
138.130.140.206

Dana- Can you post this live tonight please?

If so, I will contact a journalist and hopefully get an article publish on it before “The Three Amigos” meeting on Tuesday. I will also send it to people in Lake Macquarie and they can go to meeting and have some ammunition to fire at Archibald because for sure he’s going to say there’s no need to worry - the Sun is about to dim and global cooling will descend.

I will also email it to McCloy’s office to make him happy as well.

 

2012-01-29 13:44:27
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.108.131

Okay Brian, I'll try to finish it up and publish tonight.

2012-01-29 15:42:40
Brian Purdue

bnpurdue@bigpond.net...
138.130.140.206

That was quick - thanks dana. Now to work!