2012-01-23 22:58:15NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.103.248

Post is here. Try to finish off part 2 tomorrow, or tomorrow night. Part 2 focuses on the Hansen et al analysis, whereas this one is a bit waffly in order to paint the 'bigger picture'

2012-01-24 03:18:17
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Nice post Rob.  I hesitate to call 2011 "cool-ish" without further clarification.  Maybe add "(relative to the rest of the 21st century, but hot by 20th century standards)", or something like that.

Tamino also has an updated version of your last figure, including 2011.

2011 FR11

2012-01-24 18:25:26
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.1.172

Amended as suggested. Thanks.

2012-01-25 03:02:19
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Would be good to get this up tomorrow, nothing else is ready to go.  Anybody else got comments?

2012-01-25 07:33:43
Kevin C

cowtan@ysbl.york.ac...
94.8.233.102

I don't remember Dana being referred to by full name before?

2012-01-25 07:42:18
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Nice, looks good.

Nits:

Change from:

The oceans affect global temperature through the heat that they exchange with the atmosphere, but this exchange is not a steady, or monotonous process. There are large annual and multi-year up-and-down fluctuations due primarily to the vast amount of heat which sloshes around in the equally vast Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is essentially the re-distibution of heat already within the climate system.

To:

The oceans affect global temperature through the heat that they exchange with the atmosphere, but this exchange is not a steady, or monotonous process. There are large annual and multi-year up-and-down fluctuations due primarily to the vast amount of heat which sloshes around in the equally vast Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is essentially the re-distribution of heat already within the climate system.

 

 

And also change from:

The large surface temperature fluctuations are due to the tilting of the thermocline, a term describing the wind-driven pooling of heat in surface and deeper layers of the western Pacific Ocean (near Papua New Guinea and the Philipines) during La Niña, and the leveling that takes place as the warm water wells back up, and spreads out over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean surface during El Niño. See this great animation to gain a clearer understanding of the process.

To:

The large surface temperature fluctuations are due to the tilting of the thermocline, a term describing the wind-driven pooling of heat in surface and deeper layers of the western Pacific Ocean (near Papua New Guinea and the Philippines) during La Niña, and the leveling that takes place as the warm water wells back up, and spreads out over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean surface during El Niño. See this great animation to gain a clearer understanding of the process.

 

 

And also change from:

Figure 4 -Revised estimate of global ocean heat content (10-1500 mtrs deep) for 2005-2010 derived from Argo measurements. The 6-yr trend accounts for 0.55±0.10Wm−2. Error bars and trend uncertainties exclude errors induced by remaining systematic errors in the global observing system. See Von Schuckmann & Le Traon (2011).

To:

Figure 4 -Revised estimate of global ocean heat content (10-1500 meters deep) for 2005-2010 derived from Argo measurements. The 6-yr trend accounts for 0.55±0.10Wm−2. Error bars and trend uncertainties exclude errors induced by remaining systematic errors in the global observing system. See Von Schuckmann & Le Traon (2011).

2012-01-25 07:42:49full name
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

It's been known to happen.  When he re-posted my Michaels post, Romm asked if there's any particular reason I don't use my full name on SkS.  I said it's just that my ID is dana1981, so that's the default.  I don't have a problem with people using my full name.  So Romm did, and some other sites that picked up the post did as well.  It's fine with me.

btw, if this one's not ready tomorrow, we can also run the latest Climate Crocks video, and then put this one up the next day.  So no big rush.

2012-01-25 09:41:07
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.8.232

Nits fixed thanks. It always strikes me as weird how you can go over stuff you've written and miss umpteen dozen mistakes simply because your mind focuses on what you meant to write, rather than what is on the page.

I'll try to get part 2 finished tonight anyway, so publish when you like.

2012-01-25 15:28:15
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

"It always strikes me as weird how you can go over stuff you've written and miss umpteen dozen mistakes simply because your mind focuses on what you meant to write, rather than what is on the page."

When I was final-reviewing surface navigation charts for the US Navy prior to printing, our SOP (standard operating practice) was to get 3 different sets of eyes on it as a sanity check before we stuck a fork in it & proclaimed it done.

It was amazing:  you could spend 40 hours reviewing a nautical chart with 50,000+ bits of geo-politcal data (all with w,y,z coordinate locations)...and the other 3 people would find the 1 or 2 things you missed within about 5 minutes of glancing it over.  Which is why we did it.  After about 30 hours or so reviewing a chart, you had caught nearly everything there was to catch and the law of diminishing returns would kick in.  You essentially started suffering from "chart blindness".  You got 40 hours; if you hadn't caught it by then you weren't going to.