2012-01-05 16:19:20Trend and Variation
Tom Curtis

t.r.curtis@gmail...
112.213.145.36

The blogpost for the video is now available.

 

I would like to seperate the final two questions with graphics showing the GISS global mean temperature annual series following the first question, and the same, but faded and with a bold linear trend to follow the second.  Possibly they could be combined into one GIF.  However, I must ask Dana to provide the graphics if he would both because I'm useless at that sort of thing, and for consistency of visual style with the stairway GIF.

If Dana doesn't have the time, I think the blog is OK as is (and others may think it better without additional graphics). 

2012-01-05 16:29:29
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.127.193

Dunno Tom, reads fine. Short, to the point and well-written. 

2012-01-05 16:34:13
Rob Honeycutt

robhon@mac...
98.207.62.223

I llllike it.  Short and sweet and to the point.  And it has puppies in it too.  

2012-01-05 16:50:46
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.137.110.252

I'd be happy to create another graphic, but it sounds like what you're looking for isn't all that different from the escalator figure already in there (though a bit simpler I suppose).  Any particular reason for using GISS?  For the escalator I used BEST.

I don't think the post particularly needs the additional graphic(s), but I like playing with data, so I won't object if you and others feel otherwise.  I guess we'll give people some time to weigh in.  Sounds like the Robs don't feel like it needs another graphic.

2012-01-05 17:18:27
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.127.193

Yeah, too easy to get carried away with bloat. Often it's necessary, but not here I reckon.

2012-01-05 17:21:55
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
69.138.165.234

I like it. In fact, it might do better without the second (escalator) graphic - keep it simple.

Perhaps give links to the second graphic, as well as the OHC graphic.

2012-01-05 17:28:51
Tom Curtis

t.r.curtis@gmail...
112.213.145.36

dana, the reason for using GISS other than that it is a land/ocean index is that the puppy dog's path approximates to the GISS global land-ocean temperature index, finishing in 2010, with 1998 and 2008 being prominent.  Using GIStemp will result in the comparison strengthening the message.

I thought about just using the ecalator but the skeptic "trends" interfere with the message.

If you were a graphics wizz, instead of just a graphs wizz, I'ld ask you to do a three part GIF with the final part replacing lines with footprints.  A two year smooth may also improve the resemblance.

I do agree with the Rob's that the post does not need this, so if it takes more than a few minutes don't bother.  But on the other hand, I think the impact would be greater with the final GIF in particular.

2012-01-05 17:28:53
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.137.110.252

Nothing is better without the escalator graphic! :-)

2012-01-05 17:31:28
Tom Curtis

t.r.curtis@gmail...
112.213.145.36

I'm not sure about nothing, but in this case I agree with Dana.

2012-01-05 17:44:22
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.137.110.252

Just for the hell of it, since I was already playing with creating Flash graphics with OpenOffice, I threw together something like Tom suggested (click to change frames).  A little sloppy because it's my bedtime and I'm still figuring this stuff out, but you get the idea.

2012-01-05 18:37:30
Tom Curtis

t.r.curtis@gmail...
112.213.145.36

Having learnt you perform your magic on openoffice, I opened mine to see what I could produce:

That is the GISS land-temperature index from 1992 to 2010 annual values smoothed using the Open offic draw tool.  The resemblance to the puppies path is obvious.  It would probably be greater with a two year average. 

The point of a final graphic, if any is to be included, is to draw out that resemblance as a means of driving the point home further.  The ideal arrangement would be a GIF that  shows first the temperature, then temperature plus trend, with the trend bolder than the temperature, then finally, the puppy and owner's paths scaled to match.  Or possibly not ideal if too heavy handed, which I tend to be.  The purpose is to draw the discussion of temperature back to the video to drive home the point a final time.  Even the suggestive shape, will do that, but the full GIF would be better.

Anyway, I've editted the blogpost to include the picture above as the final figure.  That way people can consider whether it adds to or detracts from the final result.  If it adds, then we can consider improving it.  If not there is no need for further trouble.

2012-01-05 20:52:55
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.127.193

I think it's better without the last pic. I don't believe your post needs further explanation, it's good as gold as is. Remember:

 

2012-01-06 02:51:19
Sphaerica

Bob@Lacatena...
76.28.5.93

Looks good.  it would be funny (but over the top) to include a dog-walk version of the escalator graph ("How Skeptics View Dog Walking") with trend lines drawn for any period where the dog goes right/down more than up.

Skeptic dog walk

2012-01-06 02:55:41
Sphaerica

Bob@Lacatena...
76.28.5.93

I forgot the thumb.

2012-01-06 03:38:27
Andy S

skucea@telus...
173.183.12.188
Very good. BTW, I think it's "receding" rather than "receeding", at least that's what Google tells me.
2012-01-06 07:28:06
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
23.17.186.57

Hi Tom,

Why does your last graphic start in 1992?  That was just after Pintatubo and I'm sure the skeptics will make accusations of cherry-picking to try and distrct from the OP's message.  Why not the same time fram as the BEST land animated gif, or the satellite record?

With that all said, personally I would not include the second figure.

1) You say:

" or a dog being taken for a walk; when it comes to climate many people seem to forget it. "

I would be more specific.."...many "skeptics" seem to forget it"

2) "They cannot find a temperature graph without plotting in lines for every short term variation, so long as they go in the right direction.   By doing so, they think they can obscure the long term trend."

The first part does not make sense to me, and as a result the second part (which does make sense) does not follow.  Maybe,

"If "skeptics" cannot find a temperature series that shows cooling or less warming, they can seek out very short windows of time in order to try and obscure (or distract from) the statisctically significant long term warming trend".

Otherwise, looks good.

2012-01-06 07:45:31Recommendation
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Recommend expanding the title to:

"Global Warming Trends and Variations"

Including the phrase "global warming" will ensure that the article gets flagged by the Google Alert system. 

 

2012-01-06 10:50:10Edits made:
Tom Curtis

t.r.curtis@gmail...
112.213.145.36

Title to "Global Warming: Trens and Variations" as per John Hartz.

"receeding" to "receding" as per Andy S

"They cannot find a temperature graph without plotting in lines for every short term variation, so long as they go in the right direction." to  "They cannot find a temperature graph without seeing a trend each time the variation drifts downwards, and noise each time it goes up." in response to Albatross.  I believe the revised sentence clarrifies my meaning.  The sentence itself, in some form or another is required as a lead in to Dana's GIF, which I want to retain.

Final graphic is gone.

 

I have not made the edit of "people" to "skeptics" as suggested by Albatross.  By retaining "people" we allow non-committed people who may be persuaded by the deniers to indentify with the group, which will make their rejection of it greater as it becomes increasingly more evident how absurd the procedure is.  That in turn should make the message more memorable.  If instead we use "skeptics" people will not identify with the label (if open to persuasion) and will view this as something others do, not recognizing their proneness to be persuaded by it. 

This is a subtle point, and I am certainly open to persuasion of others disagree.

2012-01-06 12:21:45
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.137.110.252

We can probably publish this tomorrow if you feel it's ready, Tom.

2012-01-06 13:52:41
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
23.17.186.57

Tom is this your first blog post?  If so, congratulations mate!

2012-01-06 14:14:24
Tom Curtis

t.r.curtis@gmail...
112.213.145.36

Albatross, my first at SkS, and thanks.

 

Dana, if nobody has further problems, publish away.

2012-01-06 14:15:39
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.194.43.42

Careful with that line-modified dog graphic.  The strength of the animation was that it showed trends, whereas this one shows peak-to-trough connections, not trends.

2012-01-06 14:16:49
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.194.43.42

I like the post BTW.

2012-01-06 14:26:22
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.59.203

Yeah, congrats on your first blog post Tom.

2012-01-07 02:59:21
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Dang, with all of your SkS contributions, I'm surprised this is your first post.  Nice job, and congrats!  Now get working on the atmospheric pressure rebuttal post ;-)

2012-01-07 08:47:41Great work, Tom
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.223.98.11

Nicely pulled together - love the concluding graph and nice way to include Dana's GIF.

Rob P, LOL at your WTF graphic. Will share this with Steve Lewandowsky, he'll like it.

2012-01-07 09:01:08
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
24.213.18.68

Great job, Tom!