2011-11-30 04:37:042011: World’s 10th warmest year, warmest year with La Niña event, lowest Arctic sea ice volume
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Click here to access. This should be posted ASAP!

2011-11-30 08:01:04
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

I added the key graphic to the post.  Strange that they're jumping the gun, since November isn't even over yet.  But we can post this tomorrow night.

This is a smart analysis though - essentially comparing La Nina years (apples to apples).  We should do a similar analysis at the end of the year.  Maybe look at solar activity too.

2011-11-30 08:25:34
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.194.38.14

I like it.  What is interesting to note is that this past year's MEI completely blew 2008's out of the water, and is still ongoing.  Yet, 2011 was warmer by 0.036˚C(!) than 2008.

BTW, that brings up an important point in this paragraph:

"Strong La Niña years are typically 0.10 to 0.15°C cooler than the years preceding and following them. 2011’s global temperatures followed this pattern, being lower than those of 2010, but were still considerably warmer than the most recent moderate to strong La Niña years, 2008 (+0.36°C), 2000 (+0.27°C) and 1989 (+0.12°C). Weak La Niña conditions have redeveloped in recent weeks but have not yet approached the intensity of those in late 2010 and early 2011."

Make sure that you have your decimals placed correctly, 2011 surely wasn't a third of a degree Celsius warmer than 2008.

However, looks good otherwise.

2011-11-30 08:26:25
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.194.38.14

(Here's the MEI, values can be accessed at the bottom of the page.  Comparing month-to-month paints an interesting picture.)

2011-11-30 08:56:15
skywatcher

andycasely@hotmail...
122.107.164.176

Alex - are the values after the years not just the anomalies, not the difference from 2011? The values fit with the temperature anomaly graph.

That paragraph brings up an interesting issue - if strong La Nina events are typically 0.1 - 0.15C cooler than preceeding/following years, it's getting awfully easy to break the temperature record now with perhaps even a neutral ENSO state.  0.15C onto this year would have a clear record, even 0.1C would tie the record.  Will we get a global temperature record in the next year or two with ENSO neutral?  It's becoming possible...

2011-11-30 10:14:04
Brian Purdue

bnpurdue@bigpond.net...
60.228.22.178

A large article on this was published in our regional newspaper today - it is sure to attract letters to the editor from deniers.

If this is posted soon I can do a reply letter and direct people to SkepticalScience site. I have done this before and it has been published.

2011-11-30 11:20:26
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.39.106

Neat graph. Expect an episode of mass denier dummy spits! 

2011-11-30 13:25:22
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.194.38.14

skywatcher: Yes, you are of course right, my mistake in reading.

2011-11-30 18:29:00
Kevin C

cowtan@ysbl.york.ac...
94.14.191.201

Awesome. The WMO are totally on the ball.

Having this article and graphics in place to refer back to is also going to be useful.

One thought The title 'Other highlights' on a section describing a series of humanitarian disasters could be seen as a bit thoughtless. How about 'Other significant events'?

[Oh, I see that is a quote from the original. So we are probably not supposed to tamper with the text. Can we at least make it much less prominent? Or better, provide a footnote saying that we think it was a poor choice of words?]

2011-12-01 05:03:47
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
69.138.165.234

Good as far as it goes, but given the Arctic ice mentioned in the title, shouldn't there be a graph of that too?

2011-12-01 05:48:48
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

WMO didn't provide one, KR.  Would have been nice, but oh well.

2011-12-01 07:47:51
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.194.37.204

Would it detract from the purpose of the article (which I realize is all about the WMO release) to add the PIOMAS graph?

2011-12-01 08:42:18
Kevin C

cowtan@ysbl.york.ac...
94.14.191.201

My thought too, Alex. Or anything from Neven's recent posts, such as this one.

It is common for newspapers and news sites to add a stock picture to a story, so I'm guessing there's not an issue, as long as it is not an image which is in any way controversial. Include a caption like:

"Description blah blah blah. Graph fom <cite> added by Skeptical Science."

2011-12-01 08:54:37
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

I guess it would be okay to add the PIOMAS graph.

2011-12-02 01:38:30
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
216.185.0.2

Just saw it posted, looks great.