2011-11-05 03:45:06One if by Land, Two if by Sea? Climate Change "Escape Routes"
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Click here to access,

2011-11-05 06:26:39
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.155.80

John H, that's the paper John Bruno (one of the co-authors) asked us to write about here. I'm drafting up a post, but don't see any problems with covering this twice.  

2011-11-05 06:39:44
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

John B's not writing the post himself, Rob?

2011-11-05 06:49:06
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.155.80

Dana, sent him an e-mail saying I'd write something up, but no reply. Sorta gathered he was either too busy to do it himself, or wanted a slightly different take on it. Gives me an opportunity to weave in some mass animal mortality events from heatwaves anyway. Stuff few people have heard of.

2011-11-05 07:14:22
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Well, maybe you guys could co-author the post.  It would be nice to have his name on it.

2011-11-06 06:35:25
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Whatever you guys decide to do is fine with me.

2011-11-07 14:39:27
John Bruno
John Bruno
jbruno@unc...
74.245.80.25

Hi Gang, I am happy to do it, do it with someone else, or let Rob or John H do it.  What ever makes you guys happy:)   I had a busy week last week, but have time this week to help out.  

2011-11-07 14:47:17
John Bruno
John Bruno
jbruno@unc...
74.245.80.25

And sorry Dana and Rob for not responding - i saw the email but didnt realize there was a question in there for me. 

2011-11-07 15:00:41
John Bruno
John Bruno
jbruno@unc...
74.245.80.25

Just noticed WUWT is onto it here

Have not read it all yet...

2011-11-07 15:03:37
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Don't.  Eschenbach is an ass.

2011-11-07 16:38:32
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.205.138

Yooper, I believe you left 'hole' off the end of your last sentence.

Righto JB, I'll leave you to it. 

2011-11-07 19:26:25
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.213.168

JB - I have actually written 2/3rds of a post on this, but my take strays a bit further than you might be comfortable attaching your name to, i.e. the PETM, dire state of the oceans, marine heatwave off Western Australia etc.

I have no problems abandoning this, I've got a truckload of posts & rebuttals to work through.    

2011-11-07 19:40:50
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.213.168

Actually on 2nd thoughts JB, if you write your post, I'll write another giving it some context. I was just writing about your paper on another thread and was talking about the Cretaceous, when the tropics (land & ocean) were too hot for life to handle. Ties in with the tropical species migrating poleward and no species being able to take their place.   

2011-11-08 07:24:59
John Bruno
John Bruno
jbruno@unc...
64.134.66.15

Rob how do I see your draft?  

2011-11-08 19:28:35
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.35.196

JB - it's a very,very rough draft. Looking at it now, maybe it's only 1/4 to 1/3 completed. I was intending going a bit further than you may be comfortable with. 

It's probably easier if you write the post on your study, and then I can use all the other research to tie it all together. 

2011-11-09 00:54:29Article posted on Science Blog
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Cliack here.

2011-11-09 01:30:37
Sphaerica

Bob@Lacatena...
76.28.5.93

Looking at the comments at WUWT, there are two big problems with their approach.

First, they seem to equate marine life exclusively with large fish (tuna, etc) with which they are familiar.

That marine ecosystems include myraid ceatures, some moored to the bottom, some microscopic, etc., and that all of these creatures interact.

Second, they put forth the idea that El Nino's change temperatures by even more and more quickly.

Not being a marine biologist, I can't address either of these points myself, although it seems obvious that (a) creates will be adapted to ENSO events to some degree, (b) El Niño/La Niña are periodic events and so if the frequency and duration do not change dramatically they may negatively impact populations but those populations will rebound, and (c) El Niños/La Niñas do not affect all layers of the ocean equally, so the entire ocean does not heat or cool by the same degree.  I don't know how deep the changes go in most places.  In fact, I would think that the shift in nutrient supply might be more important than the change in temperatures during an El Niño or La Niña.

Does anyone know a marine biologist that could answer all of these questions clearly?  What sorts of marine life are we talking about?  How do they handle El Nino events, and what would be the difference in climate change, etc?

From the climate prediction center:

Temp Anomaly by Depth

2011-11-09 05:37:06
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.95.215

John Bruno would be the one to answer your questions Sphaerica, but those dumbasses at WUWT sure are amusing.

It would take a number of posts to adequately explain why rising temperatures are a problems for marine life, but perhaps the easiest to grasp is that many species have a thermal tolerance limit, and some such as coral, live pretty close to the threshold.

We could demonstrate this for the dummies at WUWT. First get them to load up a barbell with the heaviest weight they can bench press for one single repetition. The absolute maximum. That accomplished, we get them to bench the weight, but unbeknownst to them we added a little bit more weight. As the weight comes crashing down across their neck, we scratch our heads and wonder aloud "Why couldn't you lift that? You managed to lift that other weight, and this was only a little bit more. Why couldn't you adapt?"

2011-11-09 06:22:03
Sphaerica

Bob@Lacatena...
76.28.5.93

Maybe, separate from the specific issue of the post in question here, a more general post on "the health of the ocean" would be in order.  It could discuss acidification, changing marine ecosystems, changing temperatures/salinity/currents, corals, etc., but from the perspective of "how climate change is mucking up the ocean and the zillions of living things that swim or float or scurry around in there."

It would be useful to have a high level post to point out the obvious aspects that the WUWTsters miss (in my head I pronounce that "the Whatsters"), but with a scientific foundation.  it wouldn't need to be based on an actual specific scientific paper, but merely written by someone who really knows what they are talking about (John Bruno?) and so could put 2+2 together in a simple, sensible way.

I'm actually curious myself.  What are the oceans going to look like in 30 or 50 or 100 years?  What will it do to fish stocks?  Will lobster become a thing of the past?  Crab?  Tuna?  Cod?  Will sharks come to shore in greater numbers, becoming threats in regions in which they are usually absent?  Will whale populations suffer due to a crash in their food supply?

2011-11-09 06:33:44
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.122.218

Didn't somebody already do a whole SkS series on oceanic stuff?

2011-11-09 06:40:19While Rome fiddles...
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Let's go with my original post and take it from there.

2011-11-09 08:33:23
Sphaerica

Bob@Lacatena...
76.28.5.93

neal, the post was on the details of carbon chemistry in the ocean, acidifaction and such.  My suggestion relates instead to ecosystem and marine life impacts.

But John is right, for now his post is fine. 

But I'd at least put in a line to remind people that it's not merely big fish that qualify as "marine life."  Or the post could just be spiced up with images of a variety of sea creatures without making any explicit statement -- just to subtly, visually remind people that there are also shrimp, jellyfish, anemones, snails, plankton... a huge varitey of organisms beyond "fish" that form a food chain upon which perhaps more mobile and less temperature sensative organisms still rely.

2011-11-09 15:19:33
John Bruno
John Bruno
jbruno@unc...
74.245.80.25

Hi Everyone,

Rob, I will start writing a basic post about the paper now.  And ill post the link in case anyone wants to jump in and help. 

Sphaerica;  "(a) creates will be adapted to ENSO events to some degree, (b) El Niño/La Niña are periodic events and so if the frequency and duration do not change dramatically they may negatively impact populations but those populations will rebound, and (c) El Niños/La Niñas do not affect all layers of the ocean equally, so the entire ocean does not heat or cool by the same degree.  I don't know how deep the changes go in most places.  In fact, I would think that the shift in nutrient supply might be more important than the change in temperatures during an El Niño or La Niña... Does anyone know a marine biologist that could answer all of these questions clearly?  What sorts of marine life are we talking about?  How do they handle El Nino events, and what would be the difference in climate change, etc?"  

I am a marine biologist and can answer them.  El Nino is very short in duration (weeks to months) and climate change is practically forever.  So that is one big difference.  Populations certainly can be "ENSO adapted" and yet it still has enourmous impacts on even those most used to / adapated to it.  For example, in the Galapagos, during El Nino, sea birds, marine mammals and iguanas, etc have enourmous population mortality (> 50%).  These populations boom in La Nina (more nutrients and production) and crash during El Nino.  They can survive ENS but wouldnt last more than a few years duing a permanent El Nino.  

Rob: "It would take a number of posts to adequately explain why rising temperatures are a problems for marine life, but perhaps the easiest to grasp is that many species have a thermal tolerance limit, and some such as coral, live pretty close to the threshold."  

I agree.  Lets write those posts, but not try to explain everything in the burrows paper. 

Sphaerica, we have done some more general posts, based on part on this review paper here, but I can resurect some of this material. Acidification has been covered really well at SkS, but many other topics haven't.  Lets wrap of the VoCC post then Ill start a new thread on plans for ocean impacts post needs.  And yeah, the paper (and problems) are about much more than big fish!  In fact, we are more foused on inverts, birds, alage, plankton, etc.  

 

 

 

2011-11-09 15:48:37
John Bruno
John Bruno
jbruno@unc...
74.245.80.25

draft post is here

2011-11-09 16:17:27link
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Actually it's here:

Marine critters have pack up and move, but how fast?

2011-11-09 20:49:28
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.57.202

John Bruno - "Lets write those posts"

Righto. But first I've got to finish off 3 versions of "Sea level is rising at Tuvalu" and a rebuttal to Matt Ridley's rant in Edinburgh. Hope to have them done by this coming Monday - time permitting. 

Sphaerica - "What will the oceans look like in 50 years time?

I dread to think. Based on what I've observed here in NZ over the last 35 years, there won't be a lot of fish.

2011-11-10 02:28:46Science Daily article.
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Sea Life 'Must Swim Faster to Survive' to Survive Climate Change posted on Nov 7.

2011-11-10 02:31:35Rob Paining
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

What about SLR is not uniform

2011-11-10 02:33:55Rob Painting
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

It would be helpful if you would provide a list of the complete set of potential articles that are in your personal pipeline.

2011-11-10 03:54:44
Sphaerica

Bob@Lacatena...
76.28.5.93

John Bruno,

Your comment on El Nino mortality and La Nina recovery is exactly what I was thinking of -- that in comparison to what could amount to El Nino-level mortality, but continuously for all time instead of a few months.  I wish I'd known that a few days ago.  I might have dared to leave the comment on WUWT (although Anthony has banned me for "coming into his house" and dariing to call him out on his own misbehavior).

2011-11-10 18:15:39
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.232.135

JH - The Tuvalu rebuttals briefly cover one aspect of why sea level isn't level. The sea level rise not being uniform post is down the list of priorities.

 

2011-11-11 12:42:51good start
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Looks like you've got a good start there, John B.  Looking forward to seeing the rest.