2011-11-04 14:18:23Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 1
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Trying to target TreeHugger with this post too.

Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 1

2011-11-04 14:42:24Did Spencer really say that?!?!
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
130.102.158.12
Sheesh! Have you added these quotes to the database?

Typo, mispelt comments - "The peer-reviewed scientific literature confirms Muller's coments."

If its not too much of a pain to change, I'd make the yearly time series a lighter colour and make the linear trend a thicker line. But only if it's not too much work.

2011-11-04 15:02:56
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
198.53.65.169

Hi Dana,

As always good job, you are a talented writer, I am envious-- writing journal papers for me is like pulling teeth.

Anyhow, donning my reviewer cap, some comments:

1) "In fact, "it hasn't warmed since [insert year]" isthe ninth-most used climate myth."

"It is cooling" is number 5!

2) "The term refers to the long-term warming of the global climate, usually measured over a timescale of about 30 years."

Careful, here you say 30 years, farther down you say 17 or so.

3) "There are also a number of effects which can have a large impact on short-term temperatures, such as oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation or the 11-year solar cycle."

Maybe include volcanoes before discussing cycles?  For exmaple, "There are also a number of effects which can have a large impact on short-term temperatures, such as volcanic eruptions or oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation or the 11-year solar cycle."  But thent he follow-on sentence does not read a snicely...hmm.

4) At no point do you say why you are using the BEST data.  Curry has already tried to pull the canard that she was referring to global data when she was refrring tot he pause-- this is about them abusing the BEST data, but the results/principle is equally aplicable to any temperature series.  So you could say something like "Since the BEST data were released (link here) corroborating the wamring evident in other surface temperature records, the skeptics have gone into even deeper denial and have gone from claiming that they never doubted that the panet was warming to trying to use the BEST data to claim that the warming has paused."

5) "As Figure 1 shows, at every point over the past 37 years we were in the midst of one of these "global warming pauses" where climate "skeptics" could have argued (and often did) that global warming had stopped. "

I am not sure about daying at "every" point.  Maybe "over the last 37 years one can identify overlapping short windoes of time when climate "skeptics" could have argued (and often did) that global warming had stopped".

6) "In short, those arguing that global warming has stopped are missing the forest for the trees, focusing on short-term noise while ignoring the long-term global warming signal."

Maybe add "Why do they do that"?  Or you can be more blunt and join the dots for the reader-- they do it to deceive and to enforce their denial, for example.

7) "Unfortunately, those making a lot of noise about the noise include several "skeptic" and/or "lukewarmer" climate scientists, who really should know better."They are making not only noise, but also making sweeping generalizations "the warming has stopped/halted!".

8) "....by climate "skeptics" who desperately want this myth to be true."Don't forget those who deny AGW or who are in denial about AGW.

9) "they're misinforming the public by conflating the two concepts."Maybe say "they are continuing to deceive and misinform the media, public and politicians" this is a merciless ongoing infatuation of theirs and they have more than the general public in their sights.  For exmaple, see here.

10) "claiming that based on one cool monthin his University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) tropospheric temperature dataset"

"...on one cooler month during a La Nina"? The anomaly was still positive and it was the ~12 th warmest October of the 33 in the satellite record, despite the La Nina)

11) "On the other hand, other climate scientists are doing..."Dr. Muller is not a climate scientist (you refer to him immediately following that statement), maybe say scientists "who understand statistics"

12) "The remind us of the Penrose stairsmade famous by M.C. Escher" "They" remind us...

13) The ending is good, but i was hoping for a knock-out punch?  I know, easy for me to say.  But what do you wnat people to remember after reading this?

All for now.

2011-11-04 15:07:15
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
198.53.65.169

Dana,

The first link for the Spencer quote is broken, you have an errant "z" at the end.

2011-11-04 15:10:54
Glenn Tamblyn

glenn@thefoodgallery.com...
138.217.134.13

Nice Post Dana. How do you crank out this much volume. Small point. At the beginning you refrer to 30 years as the usual defintion of climate. You could actually reference that this is the definition used by the WMO. Puts the number on an official footing

2011-11-04 15:40:54
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Good comments, thanks guys.

John - I think it's something funky with the GIF.  In the individual files the trend lines look bigger and brighter, but for some reason in the GIF they get a bit skinnier and darker.  So I don't think there's much I can do about it.

Alby - thanks, writing is what I do!  Have incorporated most of your comments.  When I wrote the post, I originally had volcanoes as my first short-term example, but I wanted to make the oscillations and cycles point, so I took it out.  It flows better without it that way.

Glenn - same answer as Alby, writing is what I do!  Good suggestion on the WMO, have added that as a reference.

2011-11-04 15:56:40
Brian Purdue

bnpurdue@bigpond.net...
121.216.232.220

Dana – great read.

You could replace the word shame with “travesty” (in inverted commas) in last line of Noisy Group section to throw the climategate word back at them. Depends if you want it to sound hard or soft.

2011-11-04 16:14:44
skywatcher

andycasely@hotmail...
122.107.164.176

Nice post! Three points:

1:  Add a link to the 'It's Cooling' myth.

2: Typo in first section: "climate "skeptics" have been scrambling for a way to continue deying that global warming is a problem..."

3:  I wonder if it works to do the Penrose stairs the other way, something like: "They remind us of the Penrose stairs made famous by M.C. Escher - a staircase which people can descend forever and not get any lower."  Not sure if you want to do that, but it might mesh with the overall aim of the post better?

otherwise an excellent thumbs up from me!

2011-11-04 16:18:45
Brian Purdue

bnpurdue@bigpond.net...
121.216.232.220

Take 2;

Looking at what deniers are doing, I definitely feel shame is too soft to describe the deliberate deception going on here – look at the consequences of their actions – it’s more than a shame.

2011-11-04 16:21:45
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.200.89

Still think it could have been much shorter, so that the GIF animation was always in screenshot, but topnotch nevertheless.

2011-11-04 16:39:26
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
198.53.65.169

Hi Dana,

OK, now I feel a little better ;)  Top notch.  Just saw a typo:"have been scrambling for a way to continue deying that global warming is a problem, and focusing on the short-term noise has become their preferred go-to excuse."

Continue "denying".

I'd still provide a link to BEST earlier, we know who they are, others might not be as familiar.

"Not only are these short-term "pauses" just noise in the data, but they're entirely expected and predicted by climate models."

"...but observations show that they are entirley expected " 

Maybe add a link to Meehl et al. (2011) after "climate models"--assuming that is who you wer ethinking of. 

Thanks for this Dana, and Sphaerica for the brilliant idea!

2011-11-04 21:10:20
Brian Purdue

bnpurdue@bigpond.net...
121.216.232.220

Dana – I think everyone agrees the animated graphic is the centre point of the post so to give it maximum impact and coverage my suggestion is to duplicate it at the end under the Penrose stair diagram and give it the title.  

“ONCE AGAIN – GOING DOWN THE UP ESCALATOR”.

Both will then be on the screen together and will complement each other.

I assume animation will also be at the start of Part 2 too?   

2011-11-04 21:59:12
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
192.171.166.133

"one can identify overlapping short windows of time when climate "skeptics" could have argued (and often did) that global warming had stopped."

 

I've only noticed the latest one. Do you have quotes of the other times?

2011-11-04 23:48:34
Sphaerica

Bob@Lacatena...
76.28.5.93

Excellent article, Dana.  Well done.

I agree with skywatcher... add a link to the "It's Cooling" page at some point if you can do it without cluttering the post (although I also agree with your main objective to keep it as short and simple as possible -- I think you've done that well).

As a supplement to adding the link -- the "It's Cooling" page could use an advanced version that itemizes the actual numbers for all of the other indicators that might or do continue to change when atmospheric temperatures seemingly stall -- ocean heat content, ice loss, sea level rise, fall/spring snow extent and start of extent growth/retreat, atmospheric humidity, etc.

The basic page sort of says "this is true," but we never provide the data there to prove it.

In the context of the Escalator post, I think it's appropriate to point to the evidence that says that even if temperatures appear to have stalled, warming is actually continuing as evidenced in other areas.  it's like looking at a wall full of ticking clocks, focusing on the one that has run down, and saying "time has stopped!"

[Are there any statistics for the % area of the earth in drought each month?  Are there any actual measurements of the treeline or snowline in places, or some objective, temperature or nature based delineator for the start of spring?  As a side note, I live in Massachusetts.  It's November 4th and the trees not only still have their leaves, but they're still green!  It is so weird.  It feels wrong.]

The intermediate and advanced versions might also benefit from a graphic similar to that on the "It's Cooling" basic post ("Ten Indicators of a Warming World"), one that would replace the simple labels with miniature graphs of the relevant stats.  A Flash animation could also replace each miniature graph with a larger version whenever the user rolls over the smaller version, but someone then has to be bothered to do some Flash (blech!) or HTML5 Canvas programming.

[I notice Dana's animated graph has also been added to the "Did global warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?" post.]

2011-11-04 23:49:53
Sphaerica

Bob@Lacatena...
76.28.5.93

MarkR,

I think the fact that he says "could have" (not "did") makes quotes of any previous statements irrelevant.

2011-11-05 02:43:05
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Good comments again. I've updated the post accordingly.  I'd like to publish this today, so let me know if there are any further comments.

2011-11-05 03:28:36
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
216.185.0.2

Looks great.

2011-11-05 03:50:30
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
198.53.65.169

MarkR, in the 90s Christy and Spencer were making those claims, but that was for a longer period of time based on faulty data.  The first cherry pick that I am aware of out there is "no warming since 1998" but I can;t recall where I saw that for the first time.

I found this NewStatesman article by David Whitehouse from 2007 claiming warming had stopped.   Mark Lynas tried to reason with them to no avail. I found an article by Bob Carter from 2006 in the The Telegraph (a year after 2005 beat out 1998!) .  And our friend Dick Lindzen of course (now warming since 2005).

Of course since then 2010 has tied with 2005 for the record warmest year, despite a prolonged solar minimum and dimming from Asian aerosols and perhaps even volcanoes.

The point is, and this might bears mentioning,  that they can play this game ad infinitum, and manage to hide the  the steady, but bumpy, warming trend.  But to do so is only to delude oneself.

Dana, they will also most likely thow the Greenwire article at you/us...so think about how to address that, and make sure that you/we are consistent with what we said to Pielke re the most recent slow down.

2011-11-05 03:54:47
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
198.53.65.169

That Carter quote is for 1998-2005, and that coincideds with one of the "cooling" windows that Sph. identified, so you could link it with "(and often did)"  :)

2011-11-05 04:00:21
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
198.53.65.169

Oh, and another green thumb. I like the changes that others suggested.

2011-11-05 04:16:24
Sphaerica

Bob@Lacatena...
76.28.5.93

Go for it!!!!

2011-11-05 05:02:17
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Good links, have added them all (even though some coincide with the current 'cooling period', they're still made far enough in the past that they're worth mentioning).  Thanks Alby.  Am going live now.

By the way, which greenwire article are you referring to, Alby?

2011-11-05 05:08:35
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
198.53.65.169

Hi Dana,

The one about the current hiatus that daddy Pielke quote mined.

2011-11-05 05:13:31
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Ah that one.  Yeah I did a whole post centering around that article, so responding to it would be very simple :-)

2011-11-06 07:16:16
mcba

m.ashley@unsw.edu...
129.94.163.229

Dana, wow, that was a great article! The graph was brilliant, the text was perfect. Well done indeed!

Michael Ashley

2011-11-06 08:50:32
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Thanks Michael :-)

2011-11-07 10:48:19Congrats from me also
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
130.102.158.12
In case people didn't realize, Dana's graph appeared on Climate Progress, then Andy Revkin facebooked it. I've also seen lots of retweets (I've started paying attention to Twitter again after getting bored with it for a spell). So this one went viral similar to his earlier graph of CO2 emissions vs IPCC projections. This is a combination of Dana creating a kick arse graphic but also emailing a speculative email to Joe Romm suggesting he repost, which seemed to get the ball rolling. It's not enough to say "if you build it, they will come", you also need to spruik your work if you want to get it out there.
2011-11-07 11:46:46
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Thanks John.  I had a feeling the graphic might go viral, and so tried to get it out as much as possible (i.e. sent to TreeHugger, and John made the good suggestion to send to Romm).  Lots of people picked it up from Romm's (Mann, Revkin, and Daily Kos).  Unfortunately Daily Kos gave Romm all the credit - I emailed them to ask that they attribute it to us.

Part 2 also features the graphic, so hopefully the viralness will continue.

2011-11-13 11:16:15Dana
Tom Curtis

t.r.curtis@gmail...
112.213.193.123

What was the final start month for the GIF?  Was it January 1973, or later?

2011-11-13 12:06:55
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

You got it, January 1973, ending in March or May 2010, depending on the version (March for the 'realists', May for the 'skeptics').

2011-11-13 12:38:24
Tom Curtis

t.r.curtis@gmail...
112.213.193.123

Thanks