2011-11-02 14:00:57post on new velocity of climate change in the oceans paper
John Bruno
John Bruno

Hi Gang, I haven't posted or popped into the forum in a while, but I read everything that comes up in SkS, and have been in awe of Dana and Rob's recent work, esp the recent Curry post!  

I am a coauhor on a paper coming out in Science Friday that calculates the "velocity" of climate change (VoCC) in the oceans and on land.  The basic finding is that they are roughly equivalent; although the ocean is warming more slowly, the temperature gradients are much less steep, so populations need to "migrate" more quickly to keep up (and stay within a given themocline / thermal envelope).  The paper is based on surface temp records and is the first of many that will be coming out of a working group at NCEAS that was set up in part to create a marine inpacts database for AR5.  

Should SkS do a post on this?  And if so, should I (likely with the lead author as a coauthor) or Rob would you or another SkS author like to do it?  If anyone wants to see the ms, ping me (jbruno@unc.edu) and ill send it to you (and the press releases if you wish).  

The methodlogy is a little complex and articulating what was done has been challenging!  (I lectured about it today and got more than one blank stare...).  One scientific value is that we create a empirical model for hypothesis testing regarding species range shifts.  Now, most studies simply evaluate how many species moved polaward.  But with a map of VoCC, we can make far more precise predictions to test against data.  

Any thought welcome - JB

2011-11-02 14:07:50
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey

While I'd be happy to participate by throwing it into a blog post format for you and help with editing, I lack the expertise in this area to be of much service with an overall treatment.  Perhaps if I handle that part another individual can help with the "translation".

If that works for you, JB, let me know:  yooper49855@hotmail.com

2011-11-02 14:09:14



I did a quick estimate some time back (but never got around to writing it up properly) for the poleward and vertical motion of isotherms.

2011-11-02 14:40:11
Dana Nuccitelli

Thanks for the compliment John :-)

That sounds like a fascinating paper.  Personally I'd rather hear about it from the horse's mouth (sea horse, in this case?).  As long as you think you can dumb it down so that the rest of us are capable of understanding it, of course! 

I always like it when we're able to get climate scientists to write guest posts.  It gives us more credibility, as opposed to us hacks doing all the writing :-)  You and Ove have both given us some good stuff in the past.

2011-11-02 20:17:50
Rob Painting

Sent JB an e-mail. See if I can disentangle it. Been staring at a recent tipping point paper for the rainforest, not making much headway in simplifying that though. 

2011-11-02 20:30:47
John Bruno
John Bruno

Thanks Dana, I know you will understand it!  I'm thinking about grandma and my red state neighbor Joe Sixpack here.  (not that they read SkS).  

I truly don't think of you, Rob, John etc as hacks!  In fact, I have long assumed you are indeed a climate scientist (and that Dana1981 is just another of James Hansen's many pseudonyms). 

Serisouly, you guys really know your shit!

I was a bit worried about having an author blog about it, subjectivity and all that.  I certainly blog about my own stuff a lot (and I agree, hearing it from the source adds an extra zing) but didn't know if that was crossing a SkS ethical boundary.  And I am a bit afraid of your commentors!  (the sometimes crazy technicality of the threads)

Rob-just sent it to you. 

2011-11-02 21:09:01Ideal from the author
John Cook

Hey, JB, great to see you on the forum again. Totally up to you & Rob but I think it would be great if it was a scientist expounding on their own research. The more scientists posting on SkS, the better. Paper sounds really interesting, btw.

if you're going to be at the AGU Fall meeting, we're having an SkS shindig on Monday Dec 5 at Rob's place in Berkeley. You're very welcome to come if you can make it. Details on the shindig on this thread...

2011-11-02 23:02:37


There are several advantages in having JB writing a guest post, the obvious one being that he surely knows better than any of us after reading his paper.
Though, even a cursory reading of the paper may be helpful to make relevant suggestions before publishing the post. I sent him an email too.

2011-11-03 03:30:29
Dana Nuccitelli

Nah we don't have any rules against authors guest posting on their own research - in fact we encourage it!  RealClimate does the same all the time.  I'd prefer to hear in the scientist's own words what the findings mean.

Yes, I'm a total climate hack, by the way.  Same as John C and Rob P.  We're just a bunch of amateurs who have a good enough background and have read enough climate research to be able to understand and communicate it.  Though some of us like Robert Way (the Cryosphere Kid!) do actually have a climate science background.

And ditto what John said - if you'll be at the AGU conference in December, you should come to the SkS shindig for sure.