2011-11-01 19:27:27Increase Of Extreme Events With Global Warming
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.124.252

Basic version here

2011-11-02 02:26:07New series?
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

The introductory paragraph is right on!  

I'm still not sold on the title, though, because it is so generic. Since there will undoubtedly be many more articles written on this topic, it would be appropriate to create a new series: "Extreme Events."  By using this button, the titiles of each article could be more specifi to the particular issue being discussed.

 

2011-11-02 02:37:51
Kevin C

cowtan@ysbl.york.ac...
144.32.72.165

The normalisation is counterintuitive: It looks like GISS is telling us that temperatures have increased by 10C, and the Moscow plot 'looks' as if it on a much smaller scale.  It think you'll have to field a lot of questions unless you can clarify that.

2011-11-02 03:01:05
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
198.53.65.169

Rob,

I did not see Fig. 1 in the paper, but you say "adapted".  Was there a supplemental section?

I have not read the post in detail.  SkS has run into problems adapting graphics recently and if possible I would urge people to use the original figure, or create their own but using the original data. The RC supplement to this paper is also really interesting, and I see that you link to that.  Good.

There new papers out on extreme warm and cold in recent N. Hemi winters (e.g.,here and here). They also find evidence of an underlying warming trend in winter too.  

Will try and gie it a good read.  You may or may not know aboutt he claims made by Pielke Jnr against the authors, so i'm not sure what you do about that, b/c someone will come along and say that the authros cherry-pciked dates.  The authors do address that at RC though.

2011-11-02 03:20:13Related article
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Rob,

You'll want to check out (and possibly incorporate a refeernce to it in your article), "When Can We Attribute Extreme Events to Climate Change?" posted on Legal Planet yesterday (Oct. 31).

2011-11-02 03:38:11
thingsbreak

things.break@gmail...
66.7.151.194

Rob,

You may want to think about holding off until or at least setting this post up for a follow on that address Roger Pielke Jr.'s attacks on the paper. Probably the latter would be better in terms of getting the point of the paper across, and then going about addressing Roger's criticisms.

2011-11-02 04:33:24APNewsbreak: Global warming worsens weather extremes, international climate panel will say
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

This story will undoubtedly push the PNAS paper and Pielke Jr's critque of it to the back burner.  

2011-11-02 05:49:02
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.81.82

Kevin C - 10 degrees!. Oops forgot to clarify that in the text. As for normalization, that's explained in the intermediate version. Going into detail in this version makes it too long.

Alby - adapted = I removed the "noise" in the graph, and reinforced the trendline. Not being very flash at graphics, it looks a bit bodge. No supplementary material AFAIK.

As for Pielke Jnr - he doesn't appear to understand the paper, and he keeps repeating the wrong-headed notion that this is an attribution paper, even though Martin Vermeer over at RC corrected him on this. He's like his old man - deep in denial!  

2011-11-02 06:36:32
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.81.82

Removed the numbers from the graph that may have been interpreted as actual °C values.

Added a bit of explanation under figure 1 to explain why 'scaling' of the Moscow temperatures makes it looks smaller than the global temp series. Hopefully that does the trick.   

2011-11-02 08:04:00
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.81.82

John H - checked out your related article. It a more simplistic summation than even this basic version, so I see no point in referencing it. I have already linked to the Real Climate post by Stefan Rahmstorf.

2011-11-03 10:22:40Another related article
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

This Huffington Post article quotes a number of scientists including Meehl, Schmidt and Masters.

2011-11-05 06:09:39Yet another related article...
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

“Monte Carlo versus blocking formations: why attributing heatwaves to climate change is still a gamble,” The Carbon Brief, Oct 27, 2011.

This article plows much of the same ground as does your draft.