2011-10-19 09:36:00Sea levels will continue to rise for 500 years
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Click here to access my draft article.

I was not able to successfully import the graph that accompanies this news release.   

2011-10-19 10:00:20
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Added the graphic, made a few minor formatting tweaks, moved the graphic to just after the first paragraph per SkS convention.

2011-10-19 10:54:09Daniel Bailey
John Hartz
John Hartz
john.hartz@hotmail...
98.122.98.161

Muchas gracias.

2011-10-19 11:50:58
Bern

bernard.walsh@gmail...
218.185.86.146

Looks good - this is the kind of long-term perspective that I feel is missing from much of the debate.  Many people seem to think that a sea level rise of 1m by 2100 is all there is, and miss the fact that the charts are all still rising at that point.

It's scary to think that a delay in strong action on CO2 emissions for as little as 20-30 years might mean that sea level rise doesn't stop for at least five centuries...

How do these predictions tie in with the latest work on projected rise by 2100?  Given that the range in the most recent work has been ~60-180cm by 2100, this seems to be very mid-range.  Perhaps a para discussing that?  Also, the uncertainty bounds on the right look downright frightening.

2011-10-19 12:00:08
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Bern, I think this latest work in no way encompasses Dr. Hansen's recent papers on ice sheet dynamics, with decadal doublings in mass loss possible (conservatively, in his model I believe doubling could occur in as little as 6 years, depending on circumstances).  Under Hansen's scenario 2-5 meters SLR is possible by 2100. 

And like the OP article of this thread, it doesn't stop there.

I've been considering a piece on the WAIS which I'm trying to find the time for (and on which I have called in a lifeline for help on).

2011-10-19 15:07:35
alan_marshall

alan.from.tas@gmail...
114.73.62.222

A timely article, John.

One minor issue is the repetition of the phrase "rise of about 75 cm and that by the year 2500 the sea will have risen by 2 meters." I think this only needs to be said once.