2011-10-12 15:39:15Comparing Global Temperature Predictions
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Bit of a summary of the 'Lessons' series so far.

Comparing Global Temperature Predictions

2011-10-12 17:11:26
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.227.233

Typo - "The lone exception in Figure 3" = Figure 2

Those "skeptics" must cringe when they see their silly predictions laid out for all to see.

Nice work!

2011-10-12 19:56:12
Ari Jokimäki

arijmaki@yahoo...
192.100.112.202

I wonder if the thing about 2 degree limit should be included or at least maybe you shouldn't call that "danger-limit". Some time ago there was a review article published (I should dig that paper up) where it was said that the limit could very well be something else too, as long as there is some limit we can focus on.

2011-10-12 20:50:23
Kevin C

cowtan@ysbl.york.ac...
144.32.72.165

I like. As always, many line graphs are hard to interpret if you are colourblind, although you mitigate this with the extracts.

Linestyles would help more, but probably not worth it for 5% of the male population. Symbols would be too crowded.

2011-10-13 02:34:42
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Yeah if you're colorblind, you're going to have some major problems with these figures :-)  But changing linestyles wouldn't help very much, given how many different lines there are.

Ari - I did provide a link to my post on the 2°C danger limit, which explains its origin and that it's by no means a perfect standard.  I don't really want to go into the details again here, because it's rather off-topic.

2011-10-13 02:48:15
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
216.185.0.2

This really calls out for an animation - blinking through the various predictions as highlighted against the actual temperature record. Perhaps an animated GIF or flash. I would cycle through each in order, then the 'skeptics' as a group, then the 'mainstream' predictions as a group against the record.

Tools like LooGIX.com are available for this.

Of course, other folks may consider animations an abomination, it's up to John Cook as to whether to host something like that.

2011-10-13 02:56:42
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Interesting idea KR - not something I know how to do, personally.  I guess I could figure it out if there's some free software out there.

2011-10-13 02:57:25
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Dana,

Great idea.  After the Lucia affair, I'm asuming that the IPCC values are all from the actual output data and are not digitized. 

As usual, people will go on about baselines etc.  I know it has been discussed before, but a sentence here and there will help-- it is always nice to say "See the Figure caption", or the third sentence in para X ;)

Talking of baselines. One thing that was confusing is that the anomlay for AR4 projections circa 2000 in Figs 1and 4. is ~0.35 C, but in Fig. 5 it is ~0.75C.

I would make doubly sure that all the i's are dotted and t's crossed.  Don't give Lucia et al. anything concrete to complain about.

I would also suggest adding one of the more optimistic scenarios, assuming that is that we we actually try and do something!

2011-10-13 03:17:09
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
98.112.44.162

I could probably create GIF or Flash animations if you want to go that route.

2011-10-13 03:20:36
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
216.185.0.2

Dana - Microsoft has a free animated GIF creator (http://download.cnet.com/Microsoft-GIF-Animator/3000-18512_4-12053.html), although it requires GIF or AVI inputs - MicroSoft GIF Animator.

From a Windows machine (I don't know what computer religion you follow, don't know the current stuff for Macs) you can save chart images cut/pasted from Excel via the Windows Paint (accessory menu), writing them as a series of GIF's of identical sizes. Import and arrange into order in the MicroSoft GIF Animator, set display times, save, and you have an animation compatible with any browser. It shouldn't be too large, either - GIF compression (Lempel-Ziv) is very efficient with large runs of single colors, like white backgrounds.

On a Unix/Linux box GIMP supports creating animated GIF's as well.

2011-10-13 03:36:01
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
98.112.44.162

Quick animation (I didn't try to redraw the graph; just a proof of concept). I set it up to repeat only 3 times so as not to annoy anyone.

UPDATE: I removed my first animated graph in lieu of the new one below.

2011-10-13 03:57:33
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Alby - the AR4 figures are from actual data, but the others are digitized.  Does the IPCC have data files for those older reports?  I should probably check, certainly not the FAR, but possibly the TAR.

KR - I'm a Mac guy!

jg - that would be great if you have time.  I like KR's suggestion of doing each individual prediction through time (which would go Broecker, Kellogg, Hansen, Lindzen, FAR, SAR, Easterbrook A and B, TAR, AR4, Akasofu, then McLean), then showing all the "skeptics" (my fig 2), then the mainstream (my fig 3).  Maybe finishing off with my fig 5 showing future AR4 projections.  I can provide the Excel file if that would help.

Alby - yeah, I hate to talk about baselines just because they mean jack squat.  But I should probably mention that the baselines changed between those figures.  I can add one of the other scenarios too, where we actually take action to reduce emissions.

2011-10-13 04:10:20
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
98.112.44.162

Dana, I can create the GIFs as you describe. I would like to use the Excel data to draw the graphs so we an claim to be using the real data rather than an illustrator's redrawing. You can email me at garrjohn@gmail.com

What's your timeline? Tomorrow evening will be my next block of quality time to work on these.

2011-10-13 04:10:47
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
216.185.0.2

Dana - http://www.macupdate.com/app/mac/235/gifbuilder looks to be one option. I'm sure the great Googley will be able to locate one or two others.

I used to work with Macs - it became unprofitable, representing ~40% of development and ~10% of deployment/sales. It's been a while now...

A note for usability - the first image on the OP should probably not be animated, as that's what will get displayed on the SkS home page. I would save continuous animations for 'below the fold' areas of the OP. I recall a number of complaints about auto-playing movies.

2011-10-13 04:52:59
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Good point KR, will put the animation after the jump.

jg - thanks, I'll email you the file tonight.  No specific timeline, but it would be great if you could get it done tomorrow night.

2011-10-13 05:00:59
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Dana,

I wonder if DMI have the IPCC TAR data?  I will have a look and see.

2011-10-13 07:19:38
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.60.84

JG - I love the animation, it attracts ones attention which helps to imprint it in the brain (hopefully).

2011-10-13 08:05:36
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Dana,

A small nitpick, on my screen at least, the colours for McLean and Easterbrook B are difficult to distinguish.

I expect some whinning about the Hansen projection-- every time in the past that his projections have ben discussed the "skeptics" have been very vocal and accusations of cherry picking have been made.  Best to be clear which scenario of his you used (looks like B to me) and why you chose that.  You do provide a link, but more information up front will help keep the noise down.

2011-10-13 09:20:03
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Alby - yeah, it's tough to come up with enough distinguishable colors with so many different lines on one graph.

I can add some more info on the Hansen scenario in the text - not a problem.  Let me know if you find the TAR projection data.

2011-10-14 14:57:48
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
96.229.221.76

Here's a draft showing the predictions each animated in turn, then all the skeptics and then the others. It loops 3 times.

The data is traced, so consider this a test of colors, timing and display. As soon as I get the real data, I'll drop in new graphs and the substitution will be mostly automatic.

 UPDATE: ILLUSTRATION DELETED; SEE NEW ILLUSTRATION BELOW.

2011-10-14 15:02:56
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Nice jg.  Did you not get my email with the Excel file last night?  I'll try sending it again.

At the end i'd also like to clear the screen and drop in the figure with just the "skeptic" predictions, then just the mainstream predictions, then the future AR4 projections.

2011-10-14 15:14:23
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
69.138.165.234

Agreed - the labeling should reflect just the graphs shown (plus group title of "skeptic"/"mainstream"), while the current iteration shows all labels.

On the other hand - it looks just fantastic!

2011-10-14 20:57:07
logicman

logicman_alf@yahoo.co...
109.150.153.2

Great animation.  The article isn't too bad either. ;-)

 

Just joking - thumbs.

2011-10-15 13:55:42
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
96.229.221.76

Ok. New GIF animation. Dana, your first email ended up in gmail's spam folder and I won't descibe the company you got put with. I should have checked for that. Also, this image supercedes the updates I sent you. I believe I have the data charted correctly and the major components you want displayed. I expect changes, so let me know. I'll have some time tomorrow (my Saturday in California time) in the early morning, but after that, revisions will have to wait till Sunday evening.

UPDATE: ILLUSTRATION REPLACED PER COMMENTS BELOW.

2011-10-15 15:04:09
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Looks really good jg.  Just a couple of small changes:

1) Typo in "Easterbrook B"

2) Change "Skeptic's Projections" title to "Skeptic Projections"

3) Change Main Stream title to Mainstream

4) Maybe put it on an infinite loop?

5) Can you add AR4 Scenario B1 to the final future projections frame?

2011-10-15 15:38:24
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
69.138.165.234

jg, Dana - Which Hansen scenario?

I would agree - continued looping.

2011-10-15 16:04:46
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

I'll add details about the Hansen scenario in the text.  Just haven't had a chance yet.  It's not a specific Hansen scenario - it's his Scenario B adjusted to reflect observed GHG changes.  I don't think the GIF needs to reflect that as long as it's explained in the text.

2011-10-15 20:34:22
Ari Jokimäki

arijmaki@yahoo...
91.154.102.194

There were a thread somewhere for the prediction series generally, but I can't find it right now, so I post this suggested article here:

Arctic sea ice decay simulated for a CO2-induced temperature rise - Parkinson & Kellogg (1979)

Unfortunately I didn't find full text for this.

 

2011-10-16 01:19:58
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
96.229.221.76

Updated GIF animation. Corrected typos. Added IPCC B1 scenario. And it loops continuously.

I can make further changes Sunday night (S. California time).

ILLUSTRATION UPDATED. SEE BELOW.

2011-10-16 03:29:09
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Very nice jg, I just see two things.

1) In the last frame, it looks like you're using Scenario A2 and B1 prior to the baseline adjustment, so they're too low.  I made a column adjusting the baseline so that the anomaly in both should be around 0.75°C in 2010 (or in 2000, I forget which).  That way the anomaly is in temps as compared to pre-industrial levels, to allow for comparison with the danger limit (2°C above pre-industrial).

2) It would be good to pause on that final frame for a few more seconds (maybe ~10 seconds total) before looping back around.

2011-10-17 12:43:13
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
96.229.221.76

Ok. I grabbed the first two data sets that I could find (actually, the only two that had a 0.75 increase in one of the years you mentioned). I added about 6 seconds to the end. I know you said ten, but it seemed too long, but that's my opinion. I'll set it for longer if you see this and think it should be longer.

 

2011-10-17 12:45:54
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Beautiful jg.  No further comments from me - I'll plan to publish this tomorrow morning.

2011-10-17 13:46:10
KR

k-ryan@comcast...
69.138.165.234

Awesome.

2011-10-18 02:13:57
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Nicely done Dana and jg.

2011-10-18 03:24:41
jg
John Garrett
garrjohn@gmail...
98.112.44.162

I sized the GIF to use most of the screen space, but resizing it in the html creates some image quality issues that I didn't intend. I'm sorry that I choose too large of a size. However, anyone clicking the graphic or copying it, will see it as intended.

2011-10-18 04:19:54
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

No problem - I just bumped it back up to 570 pixels wide.  It doesn't seem to be a problem, and looks better now.